I was in my home in Moscow when the 2002 Moscow theatre hostage crisis occurred. 130 civilians were killed as well as 40 Chechen terrorists. I will never forget those 3 days. Tonight ... seeing what happened in Paris .... I can say with a certain confidence that I have a very good idea on what Parisians are going through right now. As to looking forward, many are wondering if this is a watershed moment .... I have my doubts. After the Moscow siege in 2002 many wondered if Putin was going to be more hardcore in Russia's conflict against Chechen rebels .... but he did not. What changed him was the Beslan school massacre .... and the killing of almost 200 school children. As a Putin watcher I noticed that he became a different type of leader after that terror event .... uncompromising against radical Islam, willing to use deadly force, and very proactive in stamping out Islamic extremism .... especially within Russia's borders. It probably also explains why he decided to intervene in Syria .... aside from the political and military reasons, he understands to well the threat of radical Islam, and the danger of having groups like the Islamic State holding onto (and controlling) territory. In the end .... they will attack you.
On a personal note .... this Friday night was suppose to be a pleasant evening with the GF (her 16 year old was to go to a concert with friends). Instead .... we chaperoned her to the concert, and stayed at a restaurant only a block away. After the concert, instead of going home .... we drove up north to my chalet in the Laurentians .... where everyone is now asleep with the exception of yours truly and my GF's Rottweiler. What we did tonight was what many were doing in Paris this Friday night ..... a good restaurant, pleasant company, a concert, going home .... but .... sadly .... two very different endings occurred. I guess life is like that .... and why we should appreciate the good moments that we have.
Sighhh .... time to go to sleep.
Our prayers are with all the families who are suffering in Paris today.
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3 comments:
"As to looking forward, many are wondering if this is a watershed moment .... I have my doubts" There will be significant political changes in Europe, whether they are structural or not, I tend to agree with your above statement. Where we go from here, I'm not sure, but the old ways died in many ways tonight and there is no going back.
I think Hollande will definitely have to adjust policy to some degree. How drastic it will be, I don't know. The analogy that comes to my mind is not Nord-Ost but 9/11. And Hollande already promised to wage war, though of course that kind of rhetoric is always very open to different interpretations.
WNU,
On a technical note, it's a fair rule of thumb that an action like this needs at least 15-20 dedicated support and facilitation personnel to every attacker to succeed in a hostile state. So given reports of 8-10 attackers we have a number of around 120 to 200 people who were and still maybe in country, more than enough for a follow up attack. This and the fact that Hollande was exposed at the soccer match hints that French intel (by extension US intel) was taken by surprise. It should be obvious that ISIS has a large and coordinated campaign underway beyond their Mideast operational borders and it is far from over.
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