Kevein Benson, War On The Rocks: 10,000 Won't Do It: The Mathematics Of An American Deployment To Fight ISIL
Since followers of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have launched a succession of attacks in Paris, Sen Bernardino, Indonesia, and elsewhere, we have been inundated with another wave of recommendations on how to fight this group. Distinguished senators and retired generals, along with security and terrorism experts, are saying the United States must commit ground forces into the fray.
Senator John McCain “wants 10,000 U.S. ground troops in Syria to crush the Islamic State — and blames President Barack Obama’s lack of leadership and strategy for the “phenomena of ISIS.” McCain, who has some experience at war, wants action now and is of course also seeking political advantage in attacking the current administration. In a recent interview retired Marine General Anthony Zinni also called for immediate action. He repeated the call for 10,000 troops to be deployed. Zinni said, “Limited airstrikes against [Islamic State] targets are not enough,” but “Two brigades would take ISIS out of Iraq in a heartbeat.” According to Zinni: “You cannot control people and ground without ground forces.” Even before Paris there were calls for such action.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: This post is an analysis that examines the nuts and bolts of what is necessary to deploy U.S. ground forces against the Islamic State. Bottom line .... it takes a lot of personnel and resources to field 10,000 soldiers .... and what is being proposed is not enough.
8 comments:
WNU Editor,
ISIS exists because of the US invasion. A new invasion, even with the consent of the Iraqi Government, ( which they won't get), won't " defeat" ISIS. They might be able to "degrade it" to the point where it goes underground and reverts to insurgency and terrorism, but ISIS won't be "defeated" until the "locals" both take and hold the ground, and repudiate the Safilist Millenial Whabbist doctrine that anchors ISIS.
A small contingency of lightly armed and poorly trained kurds jave kicked their teeth in whenever theyve met up so yeah 10,000 combat troops plus support troops will be enough to make them become background white noise once again.
Jay, "ISIS exists because of the US invasion". This is probably the best wording of the situation I have seen. There is a big difference between what you said, and others insisting "America CREATED ISIS", because you know, the CIA can wave a wand and *poof*, tens of thousands of people are now mind controlled.
What happens if the Wahabbist mentally refuses to die, and only spreads?
Wahabbist mentality*
US operations did play a large role in the rise of ISIS. To few troops were used during the initial invasion and the troops that were there were withdrawn to soon. This contributed heavily to conditions that made it possible for ISIS to rise.
As for how many troops would actually be needed to fight this enemy, that is a very good question. The article linked to, while thought provoking and the author demonstrates clear knowledge of the subject, does not offer an answer to the question of "how many."
No one really wants to be on record of trying to come up with a number. The anti-military establishment has their long verbal/keyboard knives out ready to destroy anyone who gets in their way of a complete and total humiliating US defeat. General and likely soon to be ex General David Petraeus can no doubt testify to this fact.
Back to how many would be needed the obvious answer that comes to mind is "it depends." If the mission is to help Iran maintain their dominant position in Iraq it would be far less than what would be needed if the goal is a complete overhaul of the nation. Since a complete overhaul is likely beyond our capability, how much does it take to defeat ISIS.
When ISIS arose, it captured and held territory at a faster rate and more efficiently than the US military ever could have. It does seem to have lost ground of late though very likely because it has spread itself to thin and has made to many enemies. This is still going to be a very tough enemy to defeat.
The short answer to this question is likely that the number of troops needed will be more than 10,000 and probably less than 500,000. The Iraqis probably will allow a force sufficient to defeat ISIS but not enough that might actually place Iran's dominance over the country in danger. Such a light force might not be enough to defeat ISIS in the short to mid term. As for the long term, ISIS will likely eventually be defeated anyway.
Since the US has already said "no boots on the ground", the question is likely irrelevant anyway. Since the US is not going to commit them, it would make no sense for anyone to ask. The question that should be asked but does not seem to be being asked is "do we want to help Iran 'death to America' further solidify it's control over Iraq?" Since ISIS is a mutual enemy, the answer to this question could very well be 'yes.' We would want something meaningful from Iran in exchange as would only be reasonable for any normal country to expect.
Otherwise gut wrenching as this is the best approach might be to do nothing as mortal enemies of our tear themselves apart. At least we would have some breathing space to properly adjust our defenses and the enemies would likely emerge from this situation weaker than before.
fazman,
The Peshmurga are fighting on "Kurdish" soil where over 70% of the population are Kurds who are "against" ISIS. Still, the Kurds have destroyed over 30 villages and 3,000 houses, to punish the Sunni tribes that supported ISIS in their attacks on Kurds.
The areas that ISIS currently hold in Iraq and Syria, are 90% Sunni, and the local tribes supported ISIS. In Ramadi for example, roughly 400,000 of the 450'000 supported ISIS, and the Iraqi Army holding the city was attacked from outside by ISIS, and attacked from inside by tribal fighters. Ramadi could only be retaken from ISIS, when most of the inhabitants, after experiencing ISIS rule, fled the city as refugees, ( a trickle that became a flood, and a process that took over a year), pulled their support for ISIS, and left the city almost empty.
In Iraq and Syria, there are already over 450,000 fighters targetting ISIS, 10,000 more isn't going to make much of a difference as long as ISIS still has local support.
Jay. So true about the fact that an extra 10,000 will not make a difference.
WNU Editor,
There is this deeply propagandized in belief in certain countries, ( not to name names) and political groupings, ( again, no names),
That a few "more" good men, a few more missiles and bombs, or a "loosening" of the ROE, will turn defeat into victory, in a program that was doomed from the start.
It's like the Poker player who goes all in on a losing hand, in the hopes that a last card will save him.
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