Andrey Bezrukov, Mikhail Mamonov, Sergey Markedonov, and Andrey Sushentsov, National Interest: How to Avoid War With Russia
The year ahead could bring conflict or cooperation in these key areas.
Much has been said recently about the unpredictability of Russian foreign policy, and the resulting uncertainty. In reality, Moscow’s interests are quite limited and focused on its near abroad. Understanding how Russia prioritizes its security challenges and how it assesses the security situation on its borders is a start to clearing up much of the uncertainty in Eurasia today. This analysis focuses on critical situations that may develop this year into vital challenges to Russian interests, triggering a response from Moscow.
It has been two years since Russia found itself in the middle of a geopolitical tornado. Could it deliberately stay out of it? We believe not. In nature, wind emerges because of differential pressures between regions. Similarly, in politics, conflicts emerge from a change in the balance of power and destruction of the status quo. The collapse of regimes in Ukraine and in the Middle East created low-pressure zones, drawing neighboring countries into the regional storm. Having found itself in a hurricane, Moscow made its choice. It could have lowered its sails and followed the wind, but it preferred to keep to its course even if it meant sailing against the wind.
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WNU Editor: One of the better analysis on what Russia is going to face in 2016 (and beyond). For Russia watchers, this is a must read.
2 comments:
I read the article and will analyze each paragraph time permitting. Everything could be summed up by the following statement "Russia is the world's dominate power and will be for the foreseeable future. All nations need to understand this and act accordingly"
What this means for each nation on earth is unique to their situations. As for America, good outcomes are still possible but this will likely mean a change in policy. When one is faced with a powerful boss, one would do well to ask , "how can I add vale?" Specifically how can we add value to Russia and its leadership?
If we can provide them with something of value, perhaps they might even defend us as they don't want to lose whatever it is we are providing them or at leas they might conclude attacking us, while they are pretty near certain to win, would be so pyric they would not consier it.
Imagine that, USA being protected by its own forces, NATO AND Russia, they would be absolutely untouchable. but I doubt that will ever happen in my lifetime..... Oh well
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