What Is The Risk Of An Unintended War With Russia?

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Martin Zapfe and Benno Zogg, Center for Security Studies

Max Fisher, VOX: The risk of an unintended war with Russia in Europe, explained in one map

Russia's aggression in Europe — its invasion of Ukraine, its military flights up the noses of NATO states, its nuclear saber rattling — has faded from the news. But it's still very much a threat, which is why the US is planning to quadruple its military spending in Europe, something NATO's European members have welcomed, to deter Russia.

In other words, the dynamics that brought Cold War–style military tension to Europe in 2015 are still with us. And that tension can be dangerous.

This summer, I wrote about a small but alarmed community of analysts and experts in the US, Europe, and Russia who earnestly worried that the risk of an unintended war had grown unacceptably high. A survey of 100 policy experts yielded an aggregate assessment of 11 percent odds of war and 18 percent odds that such a war would include nuclear weapons. (A subsequent, larger survey backed this up.)

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WNU Editor: The risk of a war between Russia and NATO is low. And while the U.S. is boosting its military presence in eastern Europe, when view with the past, we are nowhere the size of the armies that existed in Europe during than the Cold War. Not even close.