© Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Daniel Byman, War On the Rocks: Death Solves All Problems: The Authoritarian Counterinsurgency Toolkit
Bashar al-Assad should be losing. His regime has slaughtered civilians, turned Syria’s people against one another, politicized the country’s military, maintained a discriminatory political system, and won neither hearts nor minds. Yet he has defied skeptics and still hangs on to power. Nor is Assad the lonely dictator killing his way to victory. Algeria, China, and Egypt are confronting insurgencies and are largely trying to repress their way to success — as they have done in the past. Russia alone has confronted over 20 insurgencies in the last century and has suppressed the vast majority of them successfully. As scholar Yuri Zhukov contends, Russia’s long history suggests “repression works, but not in moderation.” Scholars and policymakers, however, often wrongly assume authoritarian states will fail to defeat insurgents unless they reform and neglect the distinct ways they wage counterinsurgency.
Read more ....
Previous Post: Russia Is Winning The War In Syria (February 3, 2016)
WNU Editor: The Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan, but Russia does have a long history in successfully battling Islamic insurgencies .... with some of them lasting for years if not decades. Stalin had a particularly brutal method in handling such insurgencies .... mass deportations, starvation, mass killings .... it took a few years but these insurgencies were defeated (Operation Lentil). As to the current Syrian conflict and Russia's involvement .... it is different. As bad as the Assad regime is (and it is bad) .... they are facing groups and organizations that have alienated millions of non-Sunni and secular Syrians who have no interest in supporting the rebel cause. And while this war is going to grind on for a long time, I would not be surprised if the Syrian regime will eventually win .... a victory steeped in blood and massive destruction .... but a victory nevertheless. Unfortunately .... like Sherman's march in the South during the American civil war was the final straw that broke the rebellion .... Syria is going through the same thing right now .... and one cannot help but feel for the innocent who must live and endure all of this until it is finally over.
Update: Yup .... Syrian rebels are losing Aleppo and perhaps also the war (Liz Sly and Zakaria Zakaria, Washington Post).
Update #2: There is some truth to this .... Assad has a clear plan to stay in power. This is it (Faisal Al Yafai, The National)
8 comments:
WNU Editor,
Sadly, the article is a steaming load of propaganda that sticks to the narrative and ignores recent revalations of history.
"Russia" ( propaganda, it's the R+6) is "winning" in Syria, because Syrians, ( Shia, Sunni, Christian, Druse, Alwites) are doing all the "heavy lifting".
Technically, the Syrians are "winning" in Syria, against a force that is more than 50% foreign invader jihadist's.
"Bashar al-Assad should be losing. His regime has slaughtered civilians, turned Syria’s people against one another, politicized the country’s military, maintained a discriminatory political system, and won neither hearts nor minds."
There isn't a correct word in that whole stream. Assad has held the country and its factions together in spite of the most powerful country against it, funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, also US/Saudi ISIS recently, with assistance in supplies and fighter from Turkey. In spite of all this, Syria and Assad held on for several years, and now with Russian assistance they are advancing. Much of his army is Sunni, and while Assad isn't perfect Syrian citizens know that any other possibility is worse.
Under all scenarios and by any account, the whole place is a steaming pile. And nothing to build from or plan toward. President Obama, my guy, let everyone down when it counted, 'the red line'.
Could someone tell me what "R+6" mean?
Russia+ Iran+ Syria+ Hezboallah+ Syrian People's Defence Groups+ Palistinian People's Defence Groups + Yekîneyên Parastina Gel (YPG)
Thanks Jay.
The "Red Line" was never crossed. the Ghouta CW attack was carried out by ISIS with sarin supplied by Turkey's MIT, and G3 rockets provided by Quatar.
Putin saved your asses yet again.
The R+6 are winning because a majority of the people are sick and tired of the local nutbars and their foreign buddies. Most Syrians despise the Saudis/GCC and have little or no time for their brand of religion or their feudalistic ways.
It is no secret that most Syrians regard Bashar al Assad and the Baath as the legitimate government of Syria. "Evil" and all. Just as most Libyans regarded the Jamariya and the Brother Leader as the legitimate order in Libya. No one with any sense regards anything anyone from "west" has to say about, well, ANYTHING, as worth the wind to utter it.
It is also something else to read a "western" academic spouting off about autocratic regimes' deporttations, repression etc. As if the Black population, Native North Americans and others have not been subjected to the same practices ascribed to Assad, Stalin (the standard of "evil") etc.
Post a Comment