Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- March 22, 2016

Technicians at Syria's Hmeimim airport where Russian aircraft are deployed. © Dmitriy Vinogradov / RIA Novosti

Samuel Greene, Washington Post: There may be a lot of reasons Putin changed Russia’s Syria policy, but showing up Obama is probably not one of them

In the Thunderdome of political narcissism that is the U.S. presidential election, it is perhaps unsurprising that the first question pundits asked when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s withdrawal from Syria was: Did Obama just get played again? (Actually, maybe it is surprising. Obama’s a lame duck. Who cares?)

Yes, as Politico and others reported, the White House appeared not to know that Putin was about to declare his Syrian mission “accomplished.” Yes, the White House also didn’t know that Russia was about to start bombing Syria in the first place. And yes, Washington was caught “off guard” by Russia’s intervention in Crimea. Whether you see Putin as particularly good at keeping secrets or the CIA as particularly bad at uncovering them is a matter of taste. To see any of this as being about Putin “playing” Obama, however, is a fundamental failure of analysis.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- March 22, 2016

Will the Islamic State survive 2016? -- Metin Gurcan, Al-Monitor

Fighting Islamic State -- Lisa Beyer, Bloomberg

Does China Need More Friends in Asia? -- Ali Wyne, National Interest

Russia and China: Mutually Assured Detachment -- Alexandra Viers and Will Edwards, The Cipher

The Putin doctrine sees the Middle East as a game of chess -- Faisal Al Yafai, The National

Return to instability: How migration and great power politics threaten the Western Balkans -- European Council on Foreign Relations

Fury and the AfD: Inside the Revolt against Angela Merkel -- Spiegel Online

Colombia's big comeback -- Howard LaFranchi, CSM

Cuba Meeting Between Obama and Castro Exposes Old Grievances -- Julie Hirschfeld and Damien Cave, NYT

US-Cuba rapprochement and the future -- Ian Bancroft, Al Jazeera

Last Chance, Amigo? You Can Never Be Too Late in Havana -- Jochen-Martin Gutsch, Spiegel Online

It Isn't Time to Normalize With Russia Yet -- Mark Champion, Bloomberg

The Obama Doctrine: Middle East out, Asia in -- Richard Javad Heydarian, Al Jazeera

Brussels blasts send European unity two steps back -- John Foley, Reuters

Why still terror risk, after all that security money spent? -- Dan Mangan, CNBC