Friday, May 13, 2016

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- May 13, 2016

Robert S. Ford, Real Clear World: The Next President’s Big Iraq Problem

By the time President Barack Obama departs the White House in January 2017, the Islamic State’s territory in Iraq will be further reduced. Its fighters will formally control only a few isolated pockets, probably around Mosul in northwestern Iraq. The outgoing Obama administration can at least take comfort in the fact that its actions drained the Islamic State's resources and helped fighters claw back ISIS-held territory.

However, Iraq will remain far from a success story, or at least not what Obama had hoped for when he entered office in 2009. Iraqi security forces will continue to battle a tough Islamic State insurgency, much worse than the security challenges they faced in 2009-10. The new administration will labor to keep Iraq together as Iraqi Kurds push for independence and the national government struggles to maintain cohesion amid economic hardship and challenges to local governance. Without Iraqi national reconciliation, especially in restive Sunni Arab districts, the new U.S. administration will face a long slog against an ISIS insurgency in a constantly wobbly Iraq.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- May 13, 2016

Amid war and conscription, Damascus now a city without men -- Ahmed Haj Hamdo and Mohammad Bassiki, Syrian Independent Media Group/UPI

For Iran and Hezbollah, a costly week in Syria -- Tom Perry and Dehghanpisheh, Reuters

Turkish Military Masses at Syria Border, but Why? -- Dorian James, VOA

How We Measure the Human Toll in Syria Amid the Fog of War -- Anne Barnard, NYT

Is the U.S. military strategy doing more harm or good in the Middle East? -- Charles J. Dunlap, Jr., Huffington Post

Don’t Blame Sykes-Picot for the Middle East’s Mess -- Steven A. Cook and Amr T. Leheta, Foreign Policy

Rodrigo Duterte: A new era in the Philippines -- Richard Javad Heydarian, Al Jazeera

How Will the US Decide its Next Move in the South China Sea as Tensions Rise? -- Scout Warrior

Ukraine: Whne your hometown becoms a permanent battlefield -- Stash Luczkiw, Narratively

How the U.S. Can Defeat Putin’s Shadow War -- Sean Mcfate, Daily Beast

The Origins of Brazil’s Turmoil -- Uri Friedman, The Atlantic

Making Brazil’s Political Crisis Worse -- New York Times editorial

Is Obama Going Soft on Taiwan? -- Joseph A. Bosco, National Interest

Why Obama Can't Apologize for Hiroshima -- Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg

Why World Powers Are Fighting Over this Sliver of Antarctic Ocean -- Sarah Emerson, Motherboard

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