Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Is Russia's 'Novorossia' Dream Dead?

Pavel Gubarev, a separatist leader, speaks during a news conference in the eastern city of Donetsk.

Radio Free Europe: The Unraveling Of Moscow's 'Novorossia' Dream

The Kremlin’s project to create “Novorossia” in southern and eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea was conducted in secrecy and haste in the first months of 2014.

Details of how that project rose and ultimately fell have been hard to come by. But Aleksandr, a Moscow businessman who asked that his identity not be revealed, had a front-row seat as an insider in Crimea and agreed to tell RFE/RL what became of the dream he still cherishes, despite the disenchantment of his months in Crimea.

“Russia lost its chance to create any ‘Novorossia’ on July 17 [2014], when the passenger airliner was shot down over territory held by the militants,” Aleksandr said during a recent interview in Moscow, in reference to the downing of Flight MH17 by a Russian-made, surface-to-air missile that killed 298 people and shocked the world. “After that, the idea of Novorossia was closed. So it was shut down and the war was soon frozen.”

Read more ....

WNU Editor: With the exception of some of those who live in eastern Ukraine .... this dream of a "New Russia" has never caught with most Russians. The reason why is simple .... it costs too much, there are a thousand one problems in managing any new territory, and it diverts focus away from other problems that are far more important to ordinary Russians (economy, inflation, employment, etc). But Russian public opinion will support intervention if they see Russians being threatened and/or attacked .... but beyond that .... there is no stomach for it. As for Crimea .... as I have mentioned it more than once in this blog .... the peninsula has always been predominantly Russian, but many were content with being part of Ukraine. But when the revolutionary government in Kiev started passing anti-Russian laws .... the dynamics on the ground in Crimea changed completely.

5 comments:

Bob Huntley said...

If it had been a US missile fired from the other side that killed those people Virginia Nuland would have positioned this as 'this action, unfortunately inhumane as it was, actually, most likely saved more lives than it cost, because it brought to the attention of the World's airlines that they should not fly over that part of Ukraine'.

Victoria Nuland perhaps soon to become the US Secretary of State if Clinton wins is argument enough to vote for Trump.

Anonymous said...

Many choose to use sites like this for FUD. Nice job! Just what the Russians and Chinese want and now the fascist loving Trumpites.

B.Poster said...

"It costs to much..." Does it really? You just need to subdue it and manage it properly then the resources of the new territories can not only be used to fund all things needed back home but they can make life better for the residents of the territories. This is a win/win for all involved.

Part of proper management will mean a good messaging campaign followed up by actions consistent with the messaging that the outside power means business in protecting their intersts and making their lives better. Also, good and reliable proxies will be important.

On this note, you would probably want them aggressive but not stupid. Mr. Putin and his team have done a FABULOUS job of cultivating world media support and turning it against America. When that airliner was shot down, the media was ready and willing to support Russia's position that the Ukrainian military did this. When the evidence did not back this up no matter how hard the investigators tried, the Russian leadership did the only thing they really could and they did it extremely well. They obfuscated. Essentially they took lemmons and made lemmonade out of it!! In short, this was one of the most brilliant "plays" of all time!!

Had American backed forces been accused of this American leaders would probably be facing prosecution a and lengthy prision times. Being Russian and having a vast network of media allies this would not se r m to be an issue for Russian leadership.

The goal for Russia is not "dead." It may be delayed but I suspect it will be achieved. In fact, US leadership would do well to ask themselves "how can we help Russia achieve this goal?" By adding value to them this could help us in ways that are hard to calculate. Needless to say the benefits to America could conceivably be tremendous!!

RRH said...

Where is the evidence the Russians had a "Novorossia Dream"? If so, it did not come before the Bandera Maidan Ukrop Nightmare.

B.Poster said...

If there is no official goal, then it won't happen. If it is a goal, I see nothing that is going to prevent it. Either way US leadership needs to be looking at ways to add value to Russians and their leadership.