L.A. Times: The Cold War saw decades of nuclear deterrence. What happens when a rogue state gets the bomb?
Barely a week after North Korea exploded the most powerful nuclear device it has ever tested, U.S. defense officials said the secretive country appears to be readying a tunnel for yet another, putting the country on an alarmingly fast-paced schedule to deploy nuclear warheads.
The preparations for what would be its third test this year reinforce growing concern that North Korea may soon have multi-stage ballistic missiles that could threaten much of Asia and, possibly within a decade, an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S.
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WNU Editor: For as long as I can remember .... this has always been the nightmare scenario. No more scenario now .... when it comes to North Korea it is very real.
12 comments:
Underground tesing is one thing. Miniaturizing a nuclear warhead and doing multistage IC ballistic missiles is difficult. I tire of the shrieking and pearl clutching. Yes, the NORKs have a bomb. Maybe several. The means to deliver it/them to a target remains questionable. Keep a wary eye on them. Follw developments. Shriek and pearl clutch at the appropriate time.
I think a straight line can be drawn from the progress if the Iranian nuclear program to the current advances of the North Korean one. The $150B that the West freed up for the Iranians and especially the cash payments recently are directly funding the Nork program - via Iran. I think these programs are in lockstep with one another and are being funded and enabled by the Obama admin. This is the foreign policy "legacy" Obama will lea e us with.
I would assume the Norks already have multi stage ballistic missiles. Given the maddening tendency of US officials to over estimate our capabilities while underestimating those of adversaries and potential adversaries, I think this is the only reasonable conclusion.
rjbrash, the thing is if you wait it's to late. NK's goal is to have the tech to deliver nukes...they will have this tech eventually, if they go unchecked. Do we wait until after NK has the capability to bomb the US and/or our Asian allies before acting against NK? What do we do if they get this tech? We've all seen how they act now...how do you think they'd be acting after getting the bomb and a sufficient delivery system? If they get this tech, they will use it.
NK shouldn't have been allowed to get as far as they have...this is a failure of the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations. Sanctions are ineffective; force will be needed to stop them but I don't see this happening as long as China is backing them.
At their current rate of production, all the NORK's can do with their "nuclear arsenal" for the next 30 years, is put US plans for "Regime Change" off the table.
And that's the purpose of the bloody program.
Calling for the use of force against N Korea only strengthens the hand of Kim and makes life more difficult for China in terms of convincing the "NORKs" to drop the hermit/Juche and join the OBOR.
Howling about GRB Il using an a bomb against someone "cuz he's nuts" is fantasmic. He knows, despite his bombast, that any first use will be the end of the dynasty and a whole lot more.
The best policy is to let China "bore within" and help develop "socialism with Korean characteristics" and stop pushing a checker to provide a continued military force backed order that "we" can't afford.
RRH,
I don't think China wants NK to change. I have zero trust in China...but then again I have next to no trust in the US government to handle this either.
Sanctions clearly don't work. And letting China "bore and develop" doesn't seem to me like it would either. How would that even work? We pull all our troops out of the South so NK doesn't feel so insecure? Then what? Sign a new treaty with NK? I just don't see NK backing down from this no matter what we do. Please explain.
From my view, the only way for this to end is force. Whether it's an all out war or assassinating NK's leadership. I wouldn't "use an a bomb against someone cuz he's nuts", as you put it. I'd just rather not let another "nut" get the power to kill millions with the push of a button.
China's made it plain they want the NORK's to "lighten up".
The problem for the NORKs, is they've "got nada". They can't cut back on defence and spend more on food because of both internal and external security issues, and yet they need to beg, borrow and steal enough to prevent mass starvation and internal revolt.
With half a dozen of actually working nukes, the NORKs can cut money from the defence budget, bit by bit, and put it into the much neglected economy. They have to do this very carefully and gradually to prevent a Military Coup or throw several hundred thousand hungry troops out onto the street.
For over 30 years the NORK's have been ballencing on a knife edge, with total societal collapse on one side of the knike blade, and a Military Revolt on the other side of the knife.
aaa,
below is an article from last here explaining how "bore and develop" could look.
Like Jay says, security must come first. The bomb defends against external threats, OBOR/economic development will chill out the internal.
The U.S. military staying or leaving the South will have little impact on the OBOR or N. Korea's potential part in it anyway. The North really has no other option. If anything, the American commitment hurts the U.S. more than Kim as it is a drain on an very strained (to be polite) national treasury and provides a continuing legitimation of Kim's policies. Like you said, the strategy to date ain't working. Why double down on it?
Aside: B. has commented on the woeful financial state of the U.S. He has also promoted disengagement from abroad militarily. I agree with him on both scores. Will it happen.....? I have my doubts. See: Farquarson on "cray cray".
Let the Chinese handle their problem child. Speak to the North through them. Whether you trust China or not is immaterial. She's running the show.
Better yet, stop the threats, rhetoric, posturing and hysterics. OBOR is the future, let it come and carry the Koreans forward. It's their and "our" best option.
The NORK's, for all the bluster, are simply not capable of taking over the South or winning a scuffle they start with Japan at any rate.
China won't stand for it any more than she'll stand for a U.S.-led use of force, assasination included (there will be a successor anyway. Kim has a sister).
If the NORKs attack anyone, it's game over for them and they know it. As Jay says, they are on the knife's edge and doing something stupid will cause a fatal wound.
As for the Kims' power to kill millions, that is a long standing fait accompli. The North has enough artillery on the border to blast Seoul off the map and cause a conflagration claiming the lives of millions.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/north-korea-seeking-foreign-investors-after-deal-with-chinese-company/article25960970/?service=mobile
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