Donald Trump told Fox News Sunday that he might end the 'one China' policy that recognizes Taiwan as a Chinese territory if China didn't offer better deals
BBC: Donald Trump hints US 'One China' policy could end
President-elect Donald Trump has questioned whether the US should continue its "One China" policy.
US policy since 1979 has respected China's stance on Taiwan, which it sees as a breakaway province.
But Mr Trump said that without concessions from Beijing on trade and other issues, he did not see why that should continue.
Relations with China became strained when Mr Trump took a phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.
Mr Trump went on to post a series of tweets criticising China for its exchange rate policy and its operations in the South China Sea.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: President-Elect Trump wants concessions on trade, and he is playing hardball to get what he wants ... something that modern day Chinese leaders are not use to hearing from a U.S. President (or one that soon will be President). For the moment the immediate Chinese reaction to President-elect Trump`s remarks on (maybe) changing U.S. policy is to call him "immature" .... Analyst calls for pressure on Trump after one-China policy comments (Global Times). But knowing China as I do .... and you can take this to the bank .... right now the Chinese foreign office (and other ministries) are "freaking out" over these comments.
More News On President-Elect Trump`s Hint That America`s 'One China' Policy May End
Trump stirs Taiwan controversy again by saying he might change US's 37-year-old 'one China' policy if America doesn't get a better deal -- Daily Mail/Reuters
Trump: US doesn't 'have to be bound' by 'one China' policy -- CNN
Trump: China policy not working well -- Politico
Trump Rejects One-China Policy on Taiwan -- Sputnik
Trump says U.S. not necessarily bound by 'one China' policy -- Reuters
11 comments:
I would like to see one China, but how it comes about and and what it looks like is a big fucking deal (as Joe Biden would put it).
Trump is doing the right thing here.
I would like to see "One China" as well - under Taipei. Ultimately the question is: will the U.S. defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression or not? The very public aspect of these comments signals - to me - that we may not, and that under the right concessions from China the U.S. will abandon Taiwan. I think that China would be far more likely to make some form of concessions regarding domestic policy if they had the ability to "Save Face" on Taiwan. Unfortunately, the openness of these comments by Trump is backing China into a very public corner, making some form of Chinese aggression more likely, and likely making our other allies secretly a little nervous.
For me, it's not so much that Trump is upsetting the apple cart - that needs to happen. It is that it is being turned over in the main square and not a back alley. That publicity could backfire. China may end up feeling forced to push as far as they can. The question then will be: after Trump has turned Taiwan, and its people, into a bargaining chip, will the U.S. abandon Taiwan when China throws a punch at its own sovereign territory? Will we then abandon South Korea? Japan?
PUBLICLY tying U.S. support for Taiwan to possible Chinese concessions was a bad idea. It forced everyone involved into a public corner, and hinges on China's willingness to OPENLY submit to Trump's demands on its domestic policies...That is something they cannot do.
"PUBLICLY tying U.S. support for Taiwan to possible Chinese concessions was a bad idea. "
That might be or is.
But simply recognizing Taiwan is not.
I agree: Taiwan should be recognized as a country. But I don't think that's what Trump is up to. He's made it pretty clear - to me at least - that he is using Taiwan as a way to get China to bargain, and that he could end up throwing Taiwan under the bus...in a very public way. If China told Trump to "F" himself - that core Chinese interests are not negotiable in this fashion - the U.S. could find itself with very little wiggle-room, having to either publicly abandon Taiwan or confront China militarily...that puts China in control of the situation. If Trump gave a shit about Taiwan there would have never been a suggestion of quid pro quo; he would have come out and stated a solid position regarding Taiwan's status - he didn't.
Well, there is a parameter we don't know: what are the concessions China has to do. It could be just impossible. And it would much more easy for USA to say: China doesn't want to compromise, we are obliged to recognize Taiwan as a free country and have an embassy with it.
And there is no military confrontation, for now, because China know very well they will lose adding up with a diplomatic humiliation.
China is the US's largest trading partner.
China's largest trading partner is the EU.
There is a massive trade surplus in China's favor, averaging over $250 billion a year.
The US imports pretty much "everything", from high tech to toys and clothing from China. China imports scrap metal, electronic components and food from the US.
China holds 22% of the US Debt.
Chinese imports into the US drive 68% of the US "Main Street" economy, but only 32% when you add in the Pentagon, Wall Street, Hollywood and Silicon Valley.
China's not the one in position to have to make concessions.
Jac,
I agree: there are likely concessions we have not heard about, but there are a lot of grievances Trump has openly stated. The majority of those issues may have been negotiable privately, but certainly not publicly - not for the Chinese leadership anyway. We don't need any further reason to recognize Taiwan's independence - Taiwan's independence is as obvious as water is wet. And the idea that there will be no confrontation assumes China believes that they will Not be successful should a clash occur. On the contrary, I think China believes they could succeed in evicting the U.S. from the western Pacific. They don't have to defeat the entire U.S.'s military, just keep us at bay long enough to consolidate control of Taiwan - that is something they believe they can do.
Jay,
Add to your list China's control of the rare earth market and they hold a lot of chips. Which is why playing the Taiwan card so openly is so risky for Trump. Again: privately, all those things on your list could have been negotiated - but not publicly. He is either playing a very shrewd game of brinkmanship or he is truly underestimating China's red lines. I don't believe China is bluffing when it comes to Taiwan.
I believe the U.S. should defend Taiwan's sovereignty, not use their sovereignty as a bargaining chip. Doing so only makes a China/Taiwan conflict more likely - and it will be the U.S. that will have been responsible for starting it. Is Trump prepared to go all the way toward that possible conclusion should China decide to preempt the argument altogether, and move to seize Taiwan? Or is Trump just bluffing?
Of course a great way to eliminate debt is to go to war with the bank. And a great way to reinvigorate industry and drive job creation is to mass produce consumables that get blown up. Maybe Trump knows what he is doing.
The jobs arn't coming back, and it's not immigrants, legal or otherwise that's taking them,
It's immigrant robots.
Just bought a CNC router table for the Cabinet Shop. It does the work of 4, can run 24/7, costs less than a years wages for an apprentice.
IMHO, Trump has no idea what he's doing, other than showing his base, that he's "going to be tough on China". Thus the twitter storms.
Now time for Trump to pull out his financial interests and those of his daughter in China, ie, put his tax free money where is mouth is.
If Company A moves offshore, company B has to move offshore or die.
It is that simple. Profit margins are not that great.
Frank Herbert was right.
There will be a Butlerian Revolution.
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