Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad flash victory signs and carry a Syrian national flag on the edge of the historic city of Palmyra in this handout picture provided by SANA on March 26, 2016. REUTERS/SANA/Handout via Reuters
The pendulum swing of military advantage in Syria is well-illustrated by the contrasting fortunes of the Syrian government forces in Aleppo and Palmyra.
In Aleppo the pro-regime offensive is continuing to squeeze rebel fighters into a smaller and smaller sector of the eastern part of the city.
Most commentators believe it is only a matter of time before the rebels lose their foot-hold entirely; either due to a final government offensive or through some kind of negotiated withdrawal to try to bring a respite to the remaining civilians there.
But in Palmyra, far to the south-east of Aleppo, it is so-called Islamic State that is on the offensive.
Over the weekend a force of some 4,000 fighters retook the city centre despite significant efforts by Russian air power to forestall their advance.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: This BBC commentator is using the website Bellingcat (a website that I do not trust) in verifying some of his conclusions on how fragmented the Syrian Army is. But having said that it is true that the fall of Palmyra has exposed some of the weaknesses of the Syrian army .... the primary one being that they are now stretched thin after 5 years of war. And even if Aleppo falls .... one has to wonder if the Syrian army is capable of holding this territory without the support of Russia/Iran/and Hezbollah. If I was to hazard a guess .... I would say that this war has hallowed out the Syrian army, and the only reason why they not losing is due to the presence of these pro-government militias ... and the simple fact that the rebel armies that are aligned against them are probably in even worse shape than the Syrian Army.
10 comments:
Just read this piece over on BBC, sounds like sour grapes to me.
The Syrian Army is not fragmenting. In fact, it is solidifying as the population rallies around it. Most Syrians see the army as the chief defender of the nation. After this war, it will be held in higher regard than ever. The post war SAA will include a very tough, dedicated and capable commissioned and non commissioned cadre.
We can expect not a few of them to take up government leadership positions in the future.
Palmyria was "held" by a Company from the newly formed 4th Division, ( 220 men), a Company of NDF, ( 120 second rate fighters and old men) a handful of Russian Advisors and SAAF Air Liason Officers.
They were attacked by 4,000+ ISIS fighters with Tank bases VBIED's, fought a see saw battle for 3 days, evacuated the city and conducted a fighting retreat.
The Syrian Arab Army is not "fragmenting".
It's clear that without the support of Russian air and ground forces, Iranian, Hezballa and other Milian forces, the Syrian Army is enept. This was the position they were in prior to extensive Russian intervention. Weeks from defeat. I assume Russia, Iran, Hezballa, and the other Milia forces will not wish to stay for years, let alone decades. The opposition is well known to be fragmented and using as much of its strength against each other as against the Syrian Army and its allies. But as I have always said, once this war sees the end of Frontlines, the real fight for the Syrian Army and its allies will begin. These small fragmented forces will resort to and a gorilla style conflict where the Syrian Army and its allies will simply be the hammer against the fly. This is the point the Syrian Army and its allies will start to truly bleed. This will end in a negotiated settlement some day, till then the fight will continue and the government will bleed. The won't be anytime soon, because the Syrian government has no one group to negotiate with. The Army will only be view as the defenders of Syria to the population that has not been bombed, shot at or tortured by it. That is an ever shrinking number.
Nope.
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/12/httpswwwalmasdarnewscomarticlevideo-syrian-army-elite-troops-punch-east-aleppo.html
You dont trust Bellingcat because the site exposed your lies and the lies of the RU Gov about Ukraine.
Hehehe They were attacked by 4,000+ ISIS fighters with Tank bases VBIED's, fought a see saw battle for 3 days, evacuated the city and conducted a fighting retreat.
Only 42 tanks, plus ++++++++
CIT (en)
@CITeam_en
Tents, personal belongings and food left at Russian base captured by IS in Palmyra suggest it was abandoned in haste https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjWb_NQjfgE …
That's right and they made a good decision to focus on the defence of the T4 which is now threatened with encirclement.
What's not being asked is how ISIS managed to put together a brigade size attack in an area that is under constant surveillance by "the coalition". This assault is especially "surprising" given the "fact" that some 168 ISIS oil tanker trucks were bombed in the same area just a few days ago.
It's no surprise that the Syrians/Iranians didn't see it coming, or care about it, but what about the Russians? Surely they weren't relying on the coalition to alert them.
There is the big guy again I've been seeing, third from left. Now I'm starting to get interested.
Jay would be correct.
If they were that out numbered, fought that long and conducted a fighting retreat, they are not fragmenting.
You can lose local superiority. When you do, how do you perform?
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