Russia’s President Vladimir Putin chairs a government meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, July 30, 2014. REUTERS/Alexei Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin
Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg: To Deal With Putin, First Know His Goals
Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a roll. The catalog of his alarming moves is well-known: Aggression in Ukraine, interference in Syria on the side of President Bashar al-Assad, stepped-up intelligence efforts that may include a hybrid operation to discredit Hillary Clinton, a slick, prolific propaganda machine, support for nationalist and populist movements in Europe. But why is Putin doing all this?
The common explanation is that Putin and his circle see Russia's relationship with the West as a zero-sum game. Molly McKew, a former adviser to anti-Russian leaders of Georgia and Moldova, recently wrote a much-shared article expounding the view that this is a war and urging the West to act to defeat the aggressive Russian leader.
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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 6, 2017
Vladimir Putin: The Troublemaker -- Massimo Calabresi, Time
U.S. moves against Putin just a slap -- Peter Brookes, Boston Herald
Is Trump Headed for a Showdown With America’s Spy Agencies? -- Rob Garver, Fiscal Times
How the U.S. Hobbled Its Hacking Case Against Russia and Enabled Truthers -- Kevin Poulsen, Daily Beast
It’s time for Trump to explain what will happen in Afghanistan -- Adam Gallagher, The Hill
Can a President Trump avoid conflict of interests? -- Michael Knigge, DW
Will Donald Trump destroy America’s global role? -- Andrew J. Bacevich, The Spectator
Trump to Stress Unity in Inaugural Speech, Aide Says -- Rebecca Berg, RCP Staff
Syria's Tangled Trilateral Road to Peace -- Fritz Lodge, Cipher Brief
Iran sees hailing Assad as top priority -- Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, Al Arabiya
Istanbul attack: Why China's Uighurs are joining global jihadist groups -- Shamil Shams, DW
How a pair of US stopovers could reshape Taiwan's ties with US, China -- Ralph Jennings, CSM
In Gambia, the defeated President who would go -- Alexis Okeowo, New Yorker
Why 2017 is a crunch year for Spain’s four main political parties -- Rafa De Miguel, El Pais
How Edward Snowden Sabotaged the War on Terrorism -- Edward Jay Epstein, Newsweek
1 comment:
The answer to all of that lies in Syria in the near to mid term future. The situation there has been maneuvered by Russia into two distinct possibilities.
1) What I have been calling the "being there principle". Russia working with Assad completing local consolidation (militarily) to produce a semi frozen conflict ala the Ukraine. In effect a quasi federation. This would give Russia their naval presence a facility and reason to be present. This would include the presence of air and air defence assets along with ground security.Politically it would give Putin the final say so over any strategic scenario of the region. This say so would include the aims and operations of Turkey, Iran, and Israel. This possibility I think is the most likely of Putin's near and medium aims.
2)Working with Assad and Iran for a total military victory over all anti governmental forces. Though possible this would give Russia's putative ally Iran the strategic prize they have been working for for many years. It would also put Turkey in an almost untenable position domestically and outside it's borders. This outcome gives Putin much less in almost all things than #1.
On the International stage realities for Putin have changed drastically in the last eight years. NATO has been exposed for the half farce that it is, the EU has been almost shattered (and is more concerned with it's own survival than anything else), the West's eastward expansion has been stopped, Russia's military has been reorganized and modernized to a large extent (how much so is a large argument and is somewhat unknown), the US's image of near invincibility has been wiped away, Russia has finally broken back out into the Med and has naval feelers in the Pacific, and it's nuclear forces have been refurbished to the point of making a de facto MADD policy operable.
With all of this the only real danger to Putin would be domestic and/or islamicism from the former central asian republics. As long as he can pay his domestic bills (pensions etc) he will enjoy great popularity. With the above being in fact, and the "sanctions" shown to be worse than useless he may not have that big of problem. With all of the above the great question for Russia as distinct from Putin would be his succession which is now in play.
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