Iran's fast-attack craft, the type repeatedly used to harass US Navy ships. Fars News Agency Photo via USNI News
Alex Lockie, Business Insider: How Iran made the US look weak with a tiny, outdated navy and some old ballistic missiles
The news came out Monday that Iranian fast-attack craft had once again harassed US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf with unsafe and unprofessional behavior, forcing the USS Mahan to fire warning shots.
The incident, the first of its type reported this year, follows a significant increase in Iran's navy harassing US ships in 2016, the US Navy has told Business Insider.
Iran's ability to undermine the West, to harass their ships in international waters, and to look militarily strong while having weak conventional forces owes to Tehran's expert handling of the US diplomatically and militarily, according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
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WNU Editor: I suspect that this is all going to change in the coming weeks .... Will President Trump Change The Rules Of Engagement When U.S. Navy Ships Are Confronted By Iranian Attack Boats?
15 comments:
What exactly would he change?...
What are the current ROE? From my understanding, warning shots were fired, and then the Iranians diverted. I can't see Trump saying "Scrap the warning shots, and just shoot them!" As 'Trump-like' as that sounds, I've noticed a pattern to Trump. He backs down on a lot of things he says when he gets advice that tells him otherwise. He listens to that advice and makes decisions based on that advice.
There's even talk now that he's starting to come-around to the idea that the Russians were involved (but didn't affect the outcome) of the election. Not to mention all his pre-election bravado. Such as how he promised to prison Hillary, but suddenly stopped and then regarded them as 'great' friends despite receiving continued criticism from the clintons.
I suspect many changes to come with a Trump presidency. But the ROE? I'd imagine he's rather limited there.
I would disagree, what a ready made, relatively weak target. One that will. Let more, full throated adversaries know that there is a new sheriff in town and this type of harassment will not be tolerated, without repercussions. Not for Trump, but this would be good.
The Iranians will respond by closing the Straight, blowing up US Bases, the Iraqi's and some of the Kurds will kill their US Advisors, the Shia will rise up in arms in Saudi, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and the weak global economy will collapse.
The UAE/Saudi/AlQuida/Foreign Mercenary expedition in Yemen will collapse, and while AQ will gain control, in the south, the Revolutionary Commitee will close the Straight, shutting down the Suez Canal.
Russia and China will politically side with Iran, as for Russia, the closing of the Gulf and the burning of the petty Kindoms mean that Russia replaces Saudi Arabia as the controller of global oil prices. China will side with Iran because it will gain commercial control of Gulf Oil, and because the USN "overreaction" will give them "carte blanche" to sink any Foreign Vessel in the South China Sea.
That's the moderat result.
But go ahead, I'm sure the US and the American people have nothing to lose.
Thats the tom Clancy novel result, the reality is they will lose 2 or 3 ships in an hour then look for a face saving de escalation , mantis all over again.
Russia and China wont het involved because despite all the bluster iran will not allow it to escalate into a full blown conflict.
Just provoking or attacking a u.s vessel is enough for iran to ckaim victory in the arab persian mind.
LMAO
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
http://www.straight.com/article-336907/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-theres-no-way-us-win-nonnuclear-war-iran
And seeing as you guys all think US Media is all fake news, here's Russia Insider's take:
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/iran-versus-us-iran-wins/ri12251
This guy jay and his damn "us/israel/the west gets owned" fantasies.....and then continues with shit news?
Reality, Iran gets plowed for its audacity and then crawls back to its cave
LMAO,
Other than the Gulf War, the Grenada "War" and the Panema "War", won any of the other 59 since WWII?
LMAO.
The only people who thinks that Iran's gonna roll over with a smack on the nose, are the people who would do exactly that thing in their real lives, if a bully did thatbto them. It's a cowards "tell".
Iran didn't roll over for Saddam, didn't roll over for the Allies in WWII, didn't roll over for the Soviets in the Cold War,
They ain't gonna roll over for you.
They are actually looking forward to a war.
Nonesense, they will be decimated within days and sue for peace within weeks.
We are not talking about marching to Tehran. ,the fact is there navy , airforce, and air defences will be wiped aside .
Your not seriously comparing there performance in the iran iraq war as comparable to any scenario today! LMFAO.
Mantis is still burned into their memory and there bluff will be called.
Sea mines aint gonna win it.
Nonesense, they will be decimated within days and sue for peace within weeks.
We are not talking about marching to Tehran. ,the fact is there navy , airforce, and air defences will be wiped aside .
Your not seriously comparing there performance in the iran iraq war as comparable to any scenario today! LMFAO.
Mantis is still burned into their memory and there bluff will be called.
Sea mines aint gonna win it.
Iran has been losing wars since Thermopylae LMAO
I'm not saying I want another war...but won any since 59?
No because of snowflake D-Bags like you....we can't hurt that bird or flower even though there are 100 terrorist standing around an endangered pansy (no I didn't mean you)...America doesn't win the wars because of politics not Ability!
It's all fun and games till silkworm missile hits one of our ships
Silkworms were fired multiple times in the Gulf War and were intercepted and stopped then, silkworms are the least of a ciws worries.
This is a very interesting thread. There's not much more I can add except to say as I have many times before here and elsewhere and am sure will point out again e cannot "know" the outcome of a hot conflict between America unless the "hot" conflict actually happens. Furthermore as with any argument the best way to "win" is to not get in the argument in the first place. I think the same would apply to a hot war.
Will this be like Mantis or will it be like the scenario Jay lays out? Very respectfully to think Mantis is overly Pollyannish and my patience is wearing thin with superficial analysis. The truth is probably somewhere in between here, while much closer to the scenario Jay lays out.
While the scenario Jay lays out definitely has merit and is a possible outcome, the "petty kingdoms" whether we like them or not would not be expected to idly stand by and let Iran roll over them. Furthermore the US and other nations may not be expected to react kindly to Russia using oil blackmail against them. Additionally, while Islamic terrorists assets are primarily focused right now on making trouble for America and it's "allies", they can be refocused elsewhere. As such, it is unlikely Russia, China, Iran, or any of their allies would escape unscathed. To be blunt, some may have fallen victim to their anti-American messaging. America and it's allies may not turn out to be the pushover they think they are.
I've read those silkworms can do allot of damage. This is NOT "fun and games" but it does appear to be "fun and games" to many who post on these threads. For those who are not American who take such Pollyannish views of this, please keep in mind it is not your country who is going to bear the brunt of the reprisal by Iran and it's allies. This is going to bourn by America and the American people. Frankly, I look forward to a day when America who has leaders who will not allow us to be used as pawns in the power struggles of others.
"They are actually looking forward to a war." This does appear to be the view of Iran "death to America" and this is of deep concern and frankly should be to the world at large. If certain influential parties were not so busy hating America, they might be able to see things more clearly. If someone is looking forward to something, there only half of a baby step away from actually wanting it to happen. From wanting it to happen to actually making doing something to make it happen is another half a baby step. Essentially we are only a baby step away from Iran doing something to bring about a hot war with America and it's "allies."
America faces enormous media oversight as well as oversight by much of the world who is often times hostile to it. Furthermore America suffers from "cultural Stockholm Syndrone." As such, there is no possibility of America doing anything to actually initiate the conflict. While American may fire "warning shots" where there is no possibility of actually hurting an Iranian or one of their vessels. Some may want to tread carefully. Defeating America and it's "allies" may prove more challenging than their messaging tells them it will be. It would be advisable to all to move carefully here.
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