Washington Examiner: How Trump's Navy could mix it up with Iranian attack boats
If Iranian boats harassed a U.S. destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz on Jan. 28 like they did on Jan. 8, one expert says it's unlikely the president-elect would take it lying down.
On Sunday, the destroyer USS Mahan was forced to fire warning shots at Iranian fast boats speeding toward it with their weapons manned after audio warnings failed to stop them. The Pentagon deemed the move "unsafe and unprofessional," and the boats broke off after the shots were fired.
Once President-elect Trump takes office this month, he'll be presented with a list of options on how to respond to situations like this. Bryan McGrath, the managing director of the FerryBridge Group, said what choices Trump makes will almost certainly be different from those made by President Obama.
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Previous Post: Pentagon: US Navy Ship Fires Warning Shots At Four Iranian Boats In The Strait Of Hormuz (January 9, 2017)
WNU Editor: It would be foolish for Iran to test Trump, especially since they are positioned to get what they want in the next few years .... Iran decides not to upset nuclear deal over U.S. sanctions extension (Reuters). Also .... Global Powers Reportedly Approve Russian Shipment Of Uranium To Iran (RFE). But Iran is Iran .... and who knows what the mullahs or Revolutionary Guards will be doing next. Interesting .... if this report is to be believed .... Iranians on the street are not nervous that Donald Trump will be the next U.S. President .... Talking Trump in Tehran: They’re certainly not panicking (Times Of Israel)
5 comments:
The Iranians have several qualities that increase the likelihood of disputes with the United States. Here are two:
(1) Iran feels justified in humiliating their opponents, even when they are winning. For Iran, it is not enough to win; they must publicly grind their opponents under their heel. An example: in 1980 Iran waited until after Jimmy Carter left office to release the hostages. This was a gratuitous humiliation and expression of disdain for a man who was leaving office anyway.
(2) Iran overplays their hand. This trait goes back to the Persians under Xerxes, who needlessly provoked Alexander of Macedonia. There have been many examples since. The Iran/Iraq war is one instance; although Iraq was the aggressor, Saddam later tried to settle the war. The Iranians rejected peace feelers and kept the war going until both sides were exhausted.
Applied to today, both traits bode ill for peace. The Iranians have monumental contempt for President Obama. It would be just like them to attempt a final humiliation of the United States before Obama leaves office. Moreover, the Iranians think that they are ascendant and they will not be intimidated by President Trump after January 20. It will take a major, violent confrontation with the United States to persuade Iran to take Trump seriously.
A major violent confrontation with the us would be catastrophic for the Iranians, and probably the best thing for them.
A major confrontation with the United States and Iran would most likely be violent for the US as well. It has been said the best way to win an argument is don't get into one. This is probably the best way to win a war as well.
Now as to overplaying their hand, the Iranians have Russia and china backing them up and can probably rely on most if not all of central and South America to support them and North Korea can probably be persuaded to make trouble in concert with Iran. While the US does have a number of "allies" they are hopelessly divided and weak. Furthermore many of them would just as soon see America hurt. Essentially Iran has a network of allies the United States cannot hope to match right now.
Some of these allies may not want war with America at this time. Essentially, Trump or no Trump, America is a nation in decline and this cannot be changed in anything like the near or mid term. All they really need to do is wait for America to continue to weaken then everything they want can be taken relatively easily without force. Assuming America's nuclear arsenal still works, a nuclear armed power, when cornered, may act in unpredictable ways. Iran just might want to rethink this.
China and russia will nit militarily become invilved, any u.s iranian conflict will be over within days and the iranians will look for a face saving way out loke they did during operation mantis
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
http://www.straight.com/article-336907/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-theres-no-way-us-win-nonnuclear-war-iran
And seeing as you guys all think US Media is all fake news, here's Russia Insider's take:
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/iran-versus-us-iran-wins/ri12251
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