Reuters/KCNA
Harry J. Kazianis, The Week: After North Korea attacks: An ominous Asian future imagined
With the world's collective gaze — and most certainly U.S. surveillance satellites — fixed on North Korea's next potential nuclear test, it is past time to consider the horror that the so-called "hermit kingdom" could inflict on its neighbors if it actually went to war.
Thanks to one of the largest standing armies on the planet — with over 1.2 million men under arms and another 7.7 million in reserve — and with chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons carried by over 1,000 missiles, Pyongyang has the capability to kill millions of people and start a conflict that could quickly escalate into the next global catastrophe.
How might such a war begin? The likely spark would involve some sort of unexpected crisis. For example, let's say in the not-too-distant future a North Korean missile veered off course and crash landed in the outskirts of Seoul, killing several hundred people in a tragic accident. South Korea would be hard pressed not to respond. In this fictional tale, Seoul would strike back with a missile of its own, destroying the North Korean launcher and crew responsible.
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WNU Editor: I would call this a short but accurate assessment.
9 comments:
Yes a war with North Korea would be bad. But beyond that, this article sounds like whoever wrote it has no idea what they're talking about, at all.
Aizino,
Good analogy. For North Korea to serve as the pit bull to China as the dog handler, North Korea needs to be able to defeat South Korea and the US in a conventional fight as it almost certainly would. In order to do this, it would need to be able to actually hurt China. I bet there are cases where the pit bull has mauled its owner
While the United States certainly could retaliate against China the handler with nuclear weapons after a North Korean attack, what the reaction of their other ally Russia be? I suspect they will come tot he aid of North Korea. While unknown for certain, this is what I suspect would happen.
A "hermit" is someone who lives alone at least by the dictionary definition of such a term. North Korea counts as allies countries such as China, Russia, and Iran. These are among the world's most powerful and influential countries. Merely having China alone is a huge asset for them. As such, it is inaccurate to refer to North Korea as a "hermit." As Sun Tzu would no doubt put it, if he were here, failure to understand your enemy is not likely to end well.
To use an old analogy "we stand on a razors edge", and unless the so called leaders start talking this will not end well, I don't have much hope for this, considering the politics everyone playing.
I have a poodle. My daughter had at one time a hermit crab. now i understand
North korea can inflict damage for a very limited window but it can beat no one.
"what the reaction of their other ally Russia be? I suspect they will come tot he aid of North Korea. "
There is enough nukes for everyone to glow.
Let them rain.
900 families in China allow 100 families in North Korea to do this shit.
Not only do the 900 families allow it. they profit form it politically.
I am tired of idiots playing chicken. Idiots like the 900 families.
"Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war".
North Korea will be attacked, some random event will not trigger it. The North will be attacked deliberately and most of its artillery aimed at seoul will be put out of action in the first wave. (this is paramount)
Either Kim will be assassinated quickly or he will respond with a full scale invasion. (the south wont cross the MDL first)
When this happens, we will take advantage of such a huge concentration of military hardware and nuclear weaponry will be used. We have seen how ineffective American airpower is and without nuclear escalation the south will be lost.
North Korea will respond will submarine attacks on coastal sites (maybe with its nuclear arsenal) but comparatively the counterattack will be an acceptable compromise as the North will be quickly defeated in the aftermath of acceptable nuclear attacks.
The main points here are the protection of South Korea and its infrastructure, the escalation of nuclear weaponry and overall inability of the North to attack globally or maintain a defensive non aggressive stance to build international condemnation.
The question remains, will other global players allow North Korea to be attacked. I believe the North is in not position where a change of leadership of any kind is a viable route. Tho i do believe if given the choice we could find an allie with the North if we ever went after China directly.
Kim should not be assassinated q
NORK subs will be swept from the seas quickly.
Some of that dug in artillery does not have a lot of ammo.
I think some people are projecting their rage against the system and the man.
Same playbook from 50 years ago.
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