Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- May 16, 2017

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during an interview with Reuters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, U.S., April 27, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Musa al-Gharbi, The Conversation: Trump will likely win reelection in 2020

Most Americans don’t like Trump.

Trump will most likely be reelected in 2020.

How can both of these statements be true? Here’s how:

Even when people are unhappy with a state of affairs, they are usually disinclined to change it. In my area of research, the cognitive and behavioral sciences, this is known as the “default effect.”

Software and entertainment companies exploit this tendency to empower programs to collect as much data as possible from consumers, or to keep us glued to our seats for “one more episode” of a streaming show. Overall, only 5 percent of users ever change these settings, despite widespread concerns about how companies might be using collected information or manipulating people’s choices.

The default effect also powerfully shapes U.S. politics.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- May 16, 2017

Analyzing the Trump/Russia Intelligence Story -- Charlie Martin, PJ Media

Trump Signals Shift in Middle East Strategy With Symbolic First Stop in Saudi Arabia -- Peter Heinlein, VOA

How Trump's moves in Syria threaten U.S.-Turkey alliance -- Mohamad Bazzi, Reuters

Turkish President Erdogan Faces Off Against Trump -- Paul D. Shinkman, US News and World Report

Trump's Russian Intel Leak Is the Last Thing Netanyahu Needs -- Amos Harel, Hareetz

On Raqqa, Lots of Questions With Few Answers -- Daniel DePetris, RCD

Can the Islamic State Survive Financially? -- Patrick B. Johnston and Colin P. Clarke, Lawfare

Could the Iranian Economy Sink Rouhani? -- Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, Project Syndicate

Are elections in Iran an exercise in futility? -- Hamid Dabashi, Al Jazeera

Missile Defense 101: N. Korea could hit with little warning -- Eric Talmadge, AP

China's New 'Silk Road' Is Based on Its National-Security Agenda -- James Jay Carafano, National Interest

The French Economy Is Bad in a Crisis -- Philippe Waechter, Bloomberg

Merkel Views Macron with Skepticism and Hope -- Peter Müller, Ralf Neukirch, René Pfister, Michael Sauga and Christoph Schult, Spiegel Online

Germany Is Still Merkel's Country -- Jacob Heilbrunn, National Interest

'The worst scenario': What if Canada's real estate bubble bursts? -- Peter Armstrong, CBC