Fred Kaplan, Slate: The Iran Trap
Trump is stuck with Obama’s nuclear deal. And his efforts to undermine it can only help Tehran.
President Donald Trump is having, even by his standards, a very bad week. On Monday alone, quite apart from the continuing Russia scandal, he found himself blocked from fulfilling his dreams and campaign promises to repeal the two landmark achievements of the Obama years—the Affordable Care Act and the Iran nuclear deal.
In the former, Senate Republican leaders couldn’t muster enough votes, even within their own party, for an alternative plan that was drawn up in secret and would snatch health care from more than 20 million Americans. In the latter, Trump was met with—and, at first, tried to resist—an unpleasant surprise: The Iranians, it turns out, are in full compliance with the accord’s quite stringent terms. The deal, which Trump and other critics had denounced as dangerous and unworkable, is working.
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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- July 19, 2017
Exclusive: Iran's Foreign Minister Warns Donald Trump That Tehran Can Abandon the Nuclear Deal -- Mohammad Javad Zarif, National Interest
With US indifferent, scope of Syria ‘peace talks’ has shrunk -- Sami Moubayed, Asia Times
What's the US Plan for Post-ISIS Syria? Let Them Fight Among Themselves -- Newsweek
Doha must negotiate its way back into the fold or face years of isolation -- Hassan Hassan, The National
Addiction and intrigue: Inside the Saudi palace coup -- Reuters
Is Turkey Headed for Another Coup? -- Mohammed Ayoob, National Interest
Empty US threats over North Korea are serving Beijing’s interests -- Hugh White, SCMP
Mouth-dropping corruption charges rock Indonesia -- John McBeth, Asia Times
What's Driving the India-China Standoff at Doklam? -- Ankit Panda, The Diplomat
Honour Mandela: SA can no longer stand by and watch their 'house' burn -- Chris Jones, Mail & Guardian
Kenya is set to hold one of the most expensive elections in Africa -- Abdi Latif Dahir, Quartz
Don’t Tolerate the Intolerable from Chechnya’s Strongman Kadyrov -- Tanya Lokshina, Moscow Times
French Class: Macron Embraces Trump -- Ronald Tiersky, RCW
Five Years After Benghazi, U.S. Diplomats Still Think ‘It’s Not Going to Happen to Me’ -- Kimberley Dozier, Daily Beast
When Strategic Bombing Works and When It Doesn't -- Robert Farley, The Diplomat
2 comments:
Fred Kaplan the author of the "Iran Trap" does not even mention the German Intelligence report stating Iran is seeking avenues for nuclear weapons development. Perhaps the report was/is in error but it seems incomplete not to mention it. With that said Germany is not a friend of America, supports Iran, and would like to undermine America. As such, they'd be more interested in covering for Iran than issuing a report that might undermine the agreement.
Additionally Mr. Kaplan places to much faith in the IAEA. Given the anti-American track record of bodies such as this, "just trust us" seems ill advised.
Obviously POTUS had to "certify." Failure to do so would have meant a shooting war with Iran in less than a week. Clearly the generals who advise POTUS know this and furthermore they know America is in no position to be able to confront Iran right now and with backing from only Saudi Arabia and Israel the US would be at a huge disadvantage. They would have privately advised POTUS accordingly.
Initially I had asked "why certify then impose sanctions anyway?" It made no sense. This article clears it up. This pertains to ballistic missiles. Perhaps the US has more support here.
Furthermore the mention of the NY Times article stating that POTUS spent 55 minutes of a very important meeting telling his advisors what he wanted to do is nonsensical on its face. No one with an IQ above room tempature who found themselves in a leadership role would do this. It helps to apply common sense to any analysis. His anti-Trump bias may have led him astray. While POTUS appears far from brilliant his IQ obviously exceeds room tempature.
Finally mere cursory observation reveals that US officials, pro-Trump or not are all far from "crafty." Again, here his anti-Trump bias leads him astray.
Can't say I agree with your analysis. Your analysis takes into account of your 'bias' against American powerbase and that bias is reflected here.
A Merkel Germany is not going to support Iran. That's just madness. There is nothing in it for them to do so. Merkel's stormy relationship with Trump doesn't change the global political scene to a point that Germany is going to be supporting Iran all of a sudden. I feel stupid even having to argue that point.
As for the Iranian certification; Trump has made it clear he didn't want to certify the Iranian agreement. He has said so himself, and that his national security advisors persuaded him to do it.
Why? - Current political environment is far too volatile to create an issue out of Iran concerning the agreement. North Korea, China, Russia, now India/China, are all hotbeds of potential future conflict. A shooting war with Iran in one week? Ha! No... Very unlikely. Iran cannot afford that, neither can America, but a shooting war is the least likely of things to happen. It would have meant further aggressive maneuvers by Iran both in its waters and in Syria, without directly engaging in open war with America. This is why it was certified, to prevent Iran upping its game in the likes of Syria and elsewhere.
You said - "Initially I had asked "why certify then impose sanctions anyway?" It made no sense."
It makes perfect sense for Trump. This is Trump in a nutshell. Trump didn't get what he wanted. And in true Trump style, he opted for other measures. Sanctions. Sanctions don't have the same impact as ripping up the nuclear agreement. Iran won't get too hot under the collar cause its in their benefit to keep the agreement in place, and bothering the Americans too much could jeopardize that. If Trump doesn't get what he wants, he'll find another way - imposing sanctions is the next logical choice for him.
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