The Next Middle East War Will Be Between Sunni Saudi Arabia And Shia Iran For Regional Predominance

Joschka Fischer, Project Syndicate: The Middle East’s Next War

BERLIN – With the retaking of Mosul in northern Iraq, the Islamic State (ISIS) could soon be a thing of the past. But the defeat of ISIS and the demise of its self-proclaimed Iraqi-Syrian caliphate won’t bring peace to the Middle East, or even an end to the Syrian tragedy. Rather, it is likely to open a new chapter in the region’s bloody and chaotic history – one no less dangerous than the previous chapters since the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I.

The continuation of this violent pattern seems almost certain because the region remains unable to resolve internal conflicts on its own, or to create anything like a resilient framework for peace. Instead, it remains trapped somewhere between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

Western powers are hardly blameless for the Middle East’s woes. Any mention of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, by which Great Britain and France partitioned the post-Ottoman territories, still incites such rage in the Arab world that it seems as if the plan, devised in secret in 1916, had been conceived only yesterday.

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WNU Editor: Joschka Fischer also acknowledges the impact that Kurdish aspirations are having in destabilising the Middle East. As to what is my take on this post .... Joschka Fischer spends a lot of time blaming (and explaining) how the West contributed to the current crisis situation in the Middle East .... and how their decisions in the past have helped to produce the situation where we are today. Fair enough. But these conflicts have been percolating long before Europe became interested in the Middle East, and one can make the argument that the Turks with their Ottoman Empire and later the European powers followed by the U.S. only delayed the inevitable .... Shiites and Sunnis waging war and conflict over lands that they have been fighting for since the beginning of Islam. The only difference now is that large populations, oil wealth, technology, and access to better weapons have made these ancient conflicts more widespread and destructive .... and coupled with mass communications and social media .... easier to promote and maintain. As for the West .... Russia .... China .... the rest of the world .... we are all rapidly becoming spectators. And while we are involved to a certain degree, the trend is accelerating for future wars in the region to be started (and conducted) primarily by the people who live in this region, and their only expectation from us is to provide minimal military aide.