South Korea and the U.S. likely would overwhelm Pyongyang’s army, but at a devastating cost
SEOUL—South Korea’s capital sits so close to North Korea—35 miles away—that Kim Jong Un wouldn’t need ballistic or cruise missiles to damage the city: Shelling it with the artillery that Pyongyang has amassed near the border would suffice.
If North Korea were to attack Seoul, either in a pre-emptive strike or in response to a U.S. assault on its soil, the 25 million citizens in the metropolitan area would be urged to seek shelter, primarily deep underground in the city’s subway network.
Meanwhile, the South Korean military would attempt to counter artillery fire with attacks on North Korean positions—the North has 8,600 cannons and 5,500 multiple rocket launchers, according to South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense.
The above scenario, described by military and security experts who have worked with the U.S. and South Korean forces, would entail fierce fighting and large numbers of casualties.
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WNU Editor: Seoul has a huge subway system .... in the event of war that is where most people will hide-out .... but it is a refuge that will only last for 2 - 3 days (at most).
13 comments:
The beginning of a war is always clear, but then come the fog of the war. North Korea is not well equipped for that.
2 or 3-days is about as long as the north could keep up a significant artillery barrage
fazman,
I would think that most of the North's arty holes have been mapped.
I would also think the US and the South would just use a modified Iwo tactic and just blow the holes shut.
Your right on the 2 to 3 days and that's if they fight it conventionally.
fazman,
I would also think the North has a lot of ground security around those arty positions. Forces that are pinned there. The North and a lot of people in West think that artillery is a ace in the hole, I think it's a liability for them
easy as pie so long as you are not there
Firemen know fire, paramedics know death and soldier's war. Not one person said its easy but many analysts have validated their claims that nork artillery
Sea of fire and leveling Seoul claims are a wet dream of Kims.
the north will not nuke nor attack this time. China has already let us know that they will not side with N. K., if they attack first...that was loud and clear, unlike the 1950 invasion of China into N.K. to fight the allied forces. No China no invasion
China will not let NK fall, if NK attacks and it looks as if they will be defeated China will step in, they will not let regime change to happen, if it means a US friendly Govt is on their border. NK is a big part of Chinese defense strategy, in essence the Chinese have 9 million heavily armed North Koreans guarding that part of their border, they prefer that to a Unified Korea friendly to the West{US and Japan}. Not sure what will happen but common sense has been in short supply for the last 40 years among the worlds inbred so called leadership, but we may get lucky.
China has warned N. K. not to provoke...it was Russia that got N. Korea in 1950, and China then entered shortly thereafter. I agree that China does not want an unfriendly country on its border, but I also believe China not interested in a war that would harm much of what they are currently building. I note that N. K. is suddenly silent and not bellicose. So too, Trump...
I'm also skeptical that China would allow North Korea to fall even if North Korea attacks first. Then again China did vote with us on sanctions and they did warn North Korea that they would remain neutral if North Korea attacks first.
It would have been very easy for Russia and China to veto the resolution or abstain and doing so would have little downside risk. Getting China and Russia on board with the sanctions provided to much was not given up to ibtain this support is an amazing diplomatic accomplishment.
The neutrality pledge can be interpreted a number of ways. In the fog of war, it may be difficult to determine just who attacked first. Also, if one party has reason to believe they are about to be attacked, they may attack preemptively rather than absorb a crushing blow and then respond.
Will China honor their committments or are they up to sonething nefarious? Time will tell. What does seem clear is perhaps they aren't as smart or as tough as I once thought they were.
I've also noticed that North Korea and POTUS are being somewhat quite right now. I suspect Russia and China agreeing to the sanctions and the neutrality pledge from China have made a huge difference. I've also noticed South Korea has been rather quite as well. I suspect forceful back channel communications have been sent to them from team Trump warning them to NOT DO ANYTHING STUPID!! This combined with candidate Trump correctly pointing out the flaws in the US/South Korean "alliance" for which he was viciously attacked for has probably made a huge difference as it sends a message to South Korea that America is not to be trifled with nor will America allow itself to be used as a pawn by South Korea in their power struggle with North Korea.
I believe we are going to avoid hot conflict THIS TIME due in large part to what appears to be brilliant diplomacy by team Trump. With that said there is still MUCH THAT CAN GO WRONG. This is a VERY tense situation.
Common sense has definitely been in short supply among US and "western" leaders for quite some time. The most recent example is folks going out of their way to exacerbate Cold War 2.
B. Poster,
I agree with you and thanks for your honesty.
As we wait he builds a nuclear arsenal. When he gets it then what?
Einstein some time ago noted that the nuke thing out now for just about any nation to develop. Next question: delivery system. Next: do you nuke a nation in advance because you fear development? How many have nukes and how many more will get them fairly soon?
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