PetroChina’s plant in Dalian, Liaoning province. China is the second largest consumer and importer of crude oil in the world. Photo: Reuters
Edouard Morton, South China Morning Post: What happens to Chinese oil if US-North Korea war erupts?
With tensions between Trump and Kim spiralling, analysis finds a third of seaborne oil trade would be jeopardised by conflict – and China has more at stake than either South Korea or Japan.
More than half of China’s crude oil production and up to a third of global seaborne trade of the commodity could be thrown into jeopardy if a conflict between the United States and North Korea erupted, analysts predict.
It’s a scenario that would cause chaos in the engine room of North Asia, threatening the shutdown of oilfields, refineries and petrochemical production facilities – all key drivers of China’s economy.
Energy industry intelligence firm Wood Mackenzie published the hypothetical analysis on China, Japan and South Korea last week as tensions between the US and North Korea reached new heights.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: Oil shipments to South Korea would be limited to military use. Oil would still be shipped to Japan .... but the insurance rates would be sky-high .... the Japanese government would need to intervene to guarantee that losses would be replaced. Oil would still be shipped to China .... but again ... insurance rates will be high, and I can see Chinese ports that are dependent on traffic going through the Yellow Sea being severely impacted. Bottom line .... the economies of China, South Korea, and Japan will be severely impacted .... and the ripple effect will be global. Expect a long term recession and a few financial shocks.
12 comments:
Dont forget the factories that produce "chips". SK tech will suffer alot
You know that's why the geniuses in Washington (or more accurately, at the Federal Reserve and CFR) want a war with the DPRK, right? They need an excuse to cover for the inevitable economic crash when the hollowed-out US economy finally collapses.
It's been on the verge of collapse for several years, but they've kept it afloat through financial smoke and mirrors while they look for an opportunity to manufacture a serious enough diversion.
They don't want to catch flak for helping international banking cartels to asset-strip the entire country for everything that wasn't nailed down. They don't want the blame for turning the world's greated creditor nation and manufacturing powerhouse into the world's greatest debtor nation. Better to blame the imminent financial reset on Kim Jong-un, so that angry US citizens don't revolt when the EBT stops and gas prices double.
Incidentally, Stanley Fischer announced his resignation from the Federal Reserve a couple of weeks ago, for 'personal reasons'. He's the Israeli deputy head of the Federal Reserve. (Yes, Israeli. Israeli citizens hold many of the highest government, financial, and military positions in the USA.) Maybe Fischer knows something big is coming, and is bailing.
Fun Fact: the OECD says the USA is now the world's second largest economy. Funny how the US media has stayed silent on China officially passing America.
"Israeli. Israeli citizens hold many of the highest government, financial, and military positions in the USA"
Being an economist does not require a security clearance.
After so many Democrats in congress and otherwise have access to secret information, is it really a sound argument to talk about clearances?
We could have fun looking at all the Democrats who could not get clearances as workers, but as congress critters get secret briefs.
I have a relative, who had dual citizenship. The military found out. They gave him a choice. His retirement or his dual citizenship.
" Israeli citizens hold many of the highest government, financial, and military positions in the USA"
"Do You Have to Give Up Dual Citizenship in the US Military?"
https://careertrend.com/info-8575398-do-up-dual-citizenship-military.html\
Maybe Anon 7 of 9 may want to amend his assertion.
If Anon 7 of 9 would discuss something by Nassim Nicholas Taleb or how offshoring manufacturing is hollowing out the U.S. that would be interesting.
The easy credit I think props up the economy.
I like how the Fed made a soft pillow for Obama.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
The GD Feds only raised the rate in December 2016 after Trump was elected. Even the slow witted people at CNN caught on.
"Finally: Fed raises rates for first time in 2016"
http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/14/news/economy/federal-reserve-rate-hike-december/index.html
Gee, the Feds would not want to raise the rate in the summer or fall of 2016 and hurt Hillary's chances.
We know that the Fed kisses up to politicians. Remember Greenspan going to a baseball game with Mr. Clinton, when he job came up for review?
In a war with North Korea, millions of Americans and possibly 10s of millions of Americans will probably die. Even if North Korean missiles do not or are unable to hit the United States, North Korean operatives already in the United States will be able to do serious damage.
Our lax immigration policies and poor security combined with generally incompetent intelligence services along with the fact that we have a de facto hostile southern neighbor mean it pretty near 100% certainty that these North Korean operatives are here. The nature of past relations between North Korea and Russia and China mean it is pretty near 100% that these North Korean operatives possess things such as suitcase nuclear weapons, "dirty bombs," and probably biological weapons along with the technical know how on how to use them.
As of now, the "choice" is do we wait, do nothing, absorb a crushing blow from North Korea, and hope we are still able to respond or do we act preemptively to try and protect our country. Perhaps by acting preemptively we will have a fighting chance. Otherwise we likely wouldn't.
No one should be under any delusions. This is a very dangerous and capable enemy.
Sorry Aizino, you're going to feel a little sheepish after reading this post. Heh-Heh! ;-)
Being an economist does not require a security clearance.
I never claimed it did. Poor attempt at misdirection! Also, I am really surprised that you try to downplay the deputy post at the Fed by claiming Fischer was merely 'an economist'. The second in charge at the Federal Reserve was just 'an economist'?! Hoo-boy...
Fischer was in charge at Israel's central bank before AIPAC leveraged him into the Fed. A foreign citizen, a zionist, an Israel-firster, weilded massive power over the lives of US citizens to a degree that impacted upon national wealth and national security. The Fed is that important, being the world's most powerful national central bank.
Fischer was also intrumental in pushing the USA to implement financial sanctions on Iran, something he had championed since he was the head of Israel's central bank. Fischer's loyalty to the USA was often called into doubt in the media.
After so many Democrats in congress and otherwise have access to secret information, is it really a sound argument to talk about clearances?
Well, you raised security clearances. I never mentioned them at all. I'm starting to worry that your memory is going, Aizino :-(
Anyhow, to answer the question you just raised, the Democract shenanigans makes me think that the topic of security clearances probably should be discussed. So, your rhetorical argument is a pretty poor one :-(
We could have fun looking at all the Democrats who could not get clearances as workers, but as congress critters get secret briefs.
You're off topic yet again. I never said I was a Democrat. Why keep mentioning Democrats? I'm worried about your memory again, Aizino :-(
I have a relative, who had dual citizenship. The military found out. They gave him a choice. His retirement or his dual citizenship.
Er, that's nice? What am I supposed to say to your anecdotal claim? The fact is, I checked the official regulations (from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and other government sources) and I can 100% categorically confirm, with no room for doubt, that right now, the US military allows Israeli (and other) dual citizens to serve in the US military. This is a flat fact. In fact, Israeli dual citizens find it much easier than other dual citizens to get the required security clearances.
"Maybe Anon 7 of 9 may want to amend his assertion."
Oh heck, you're even getting confused about names now :-( I'm genuinely starting to worry about you, dude. You... you know Star Trek isn't real, right? I'm not a space cyborg, I'm an anonynous poster on the internet.
I started off wanting to correct your mistakes, but now I'm worried for you. I'm always here for you if you start to get confused again. The next time you lose touch with reality, I'll tell you where you've gone wrong. Don't thank me, it's the least I can do :-)
You take care bro :-)
Aizino, the link you posted actually states that dual citizens can serve in the US military and get "Secret" clearance. It says it in black and white.
I'm worried that you are not well. You keep forgetting things, you keep going off topic, your reading comprehension has gone to heck in handbasket... and worst of all, you make random Star Trek references† :-(
From your link:
"If the job the dual citizen is applying for does not require a full security clearance at the "Secret" level, then this background check primarily involves talking to friends and family about the prospective recruit's moral character. As long as these interviews do not make it clear that the recruit's dual citizenship calls the recruit's loyalties to the United States into question, a dual citizenship is usually not a problem... if the military job which the recruit is applying for requires a "Secret" security clearance level, a dual citizenship can be a serious obstacle... Consequently, the investigation scrutinizes the potential recruit's background more closely. Depending on the job, the dual citizen might have to renounce his non-U.S. citizenship."
(https://careertrend.com/info-8575398-do-up-dual-citizenship-military.html\)
There you have it in black and white, Aizino old buddy :-( Your link explicitly says that a) dual citizens can serve in the military, and b) dual citizens can get "Secret" security clearances after a deeper background check. Not all dual citizens can get the clearance (e.g., Iranian ones) but Israeli citizens get it particularly easily.
I knew that info because, instead of going to a careers advice website like Careers Trend (and totally misreading what was there) I'd already read the official goverment regulations.
I'm worried that this news may shock you :-( They say that one shouldn't confront the deluded with the realization that their fantasy world is a fiction. Please, please Aizino, don't do anything silly! I don't want to find out that, in the throws of despair, you did something drastic. For example, attending a Star Trek convention. I could never forgive myself :-(
† I shuddered as I typed this last part. Oh, my poor, suffering Aizino!
"If Anon 7 of 9 would discuss something by Nassim Nicholas Taleb or how offshoring manufacturing is hollowing out the U.S. that would be interesting."
Ooh, it probably wouldn't. I had to Google Nassim Taleb to learn who he is, and that he's interested in black swans. I know nothing about waterfowl. I was attacked by a duck once on Lake Winnipeg, but I've tried to suppress the memories. I still can't watch Daffy Duck cartons without feeling a vague resentment towards Canadians. Oh sure, Canadians seem nice, but their cheerful outer demenours mask hearts as icy and unforgiving as the tundra from which their terrifying nation was forged.
"In a war with North Korea, millions of Americans and possibly 10s of millions of Americans will probably die" Blah, blah, blah,...
It tens of million of Americans will die because of North Korean Nukes , this I will tell you. Tens of million of citizens from any country that back North Korea will die. Leaders in America will not say millions of Americans dying is water under the bridge.
Is that clear enough for you?
Do you want to troll more?
BTW, the water table water table where you live is too high for you to build a shelter.
ENJOY!
;>)
Anon _____ of 9,
"Sorry Aizino, you're going to feel a little sheepish after reading this post. Heh-Heh! ;-)"
Ummmmm, NO!
If you read further in the article, it said officers could not be dual citizens.
"Unlike enlisted personnel, officers in the United States military must be U.S. citizens and U.S. citizens alone."
So the quote below basically says you can be a dual citizen and be something like an enlisted person who was a cook. However, you could not be enlisted with dual citizenship and be a cryptographer.
"However, if the military job which the recruit is applying for requires a "Secret" security clearance level, a dual citizenship can be a serious obstacle. "
I suspected that when I linked the article that some was like _____ of 9 would pull a juvenile troll stunt.
So what did I do?
I did not put those two quotes in my original post.
I waited.
...and the dumb cluck _____ of 9 walked right into it.
PS I wanted to link to a CFR, which is would be authoritative, but I only want tp spend so much time looking. Here is the upshot of the last sentence. We bat around this subject again, I'll do more digging and I will play Santa Claus.
Anon ____ of 9,
"Ooh, it probably wouldn't. I had to Google Nassim Taleb to learn who he is, and that he's interested in black swans. I know nothing about waterfowl"
I referred to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and he has his Black Swan theory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
"Taleb reportedly became financially independent after the crash of 1987 and was successful during the Nasdaq dive in 2000 as well as the financial crisis that began in 2007"
Taleb predicts. I think he is worth listening to him. However, you can troll. It is what you do best.
Anon ____ of 9. I can just imagine how ugly you are on the inside.
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