Washington Free Beacon: China’s Secret Military Plan: Invade Taiwan by 2020
Book based on internal documents says Beijing's invasion plan would trigger U.S.-China conflict
China has drawn up secret military plans to take over the island of Taiwan by 2020, an action that would likely lead to a larger U.S.-China conventional or nuclear war, according to newly-disclosed internal Chinese military documents.
The secret war plan drawn up by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the Chinese Communist Party's armed forces, calls for massive missile attacks on the island, along with a naval and air blockade that is followed by amphibious beach landing assaults using up to 400,000 troops.
The plans and operations are outlined in a new book published this week, The Chinese Invasion Threat by Ian Easton, a China affairs analyst with the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank.
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WNU Editor: For as long as I can remember .... since the mid 1980s to be exact .... the Chinese have always talked about forcibly taking Taiwan. In the 1980s it was just talked .... the means to invade Taiwan were just not there. Today .... or more to the point 10 years from now .... the means to accomplish such a goal will be there. The only question that remains unanswered is .... does Beijing have the political will to issue the order to invade Taiwan, even with the prospect of an all out war with the U.S. and its allies in Asia. In today's world the answer is a definite no .... the perception from China is that President Trump would commit U.S. forces and all other measures to protect Taiwan. But 10 years from now .... different players and priorities in Washington .... the answer from the U.S. may be different, and that is what the Chinese are banking on.
9 comments:
It also depends a lot on Taiwan. China won't invade Taiwan in 10 years, as you suggest, if Taiwan doesn't tolerate it. The Taiwanese people have to decide what they want. If they fiercly object, even a comparatively small country is difficult to invade, especially if it has powerful allies. And, ceteris paribus, it'll depend a lot on the plan. If a massive invasion force can land and land quickly with little to no blood shed and stalling, it might succeed. But if there's delay and blood shed, I'd imagine a somewhat "OK, welcome " change quickly to "gtfo!"
This is as justified and worthy as Hitler's gross Deutschland aspirations.
It will be China's downfall.
Sometimes I have been known to engage in emotional responses here that have been perhaps a bit "over the top." To anyone I may have offended, I humbly apologize. I shall try and approach this in a rational manner.
Several questions need to be asked and points raised. 1.)Just how important to the US is Taiwan? The US is heavily dependent upon "made in China." Furthermore due to prior poor decisions the US military is a hollowed out shell of the former "superpower" that it perhaps once was. It's national debt is massive and its infrastructure is crumbling. I could go on and there hardly seems to be the resources available to address any of this. In other words, basic national defense, basic infrastructure, and providing things like a basic healthcare system are going to be problematic enough for America in the current years. Is a defense commitment to Taiwan even possible in such an environment and, if it is, is it even prudent when representing America's national security and economic interests?
2.)The perception might be that President Trump would commit US forces and all other measures to protect Taiwan. For a country with a worn out, hollowed out military such as the US has, is such a deployment even possible or prudent? Is it a good idea to further erode America's national defense capabilities in such an endeavor for a country so far away of minimal strategic importance to America especially when compared to China. Even if DJT is willing to make this commitment. Congress will have a say as will the American people. As for Congress, they are untrustworthy and perhaps unpredictable. As for the American people, they do NOT want this as they understand the points I have mentioned above. Once American men and women start dying in mass numbers as they would in war to defend Taiwan and those deaths will not be limited to military personnel on the battlefield. China will bring the war to the American mainland. Even if by some miracle China does not bring the fight to the US mainland and the massive casualties are limited to US military personnel, the American people will not stand for watching their sons and daughters in yet another fruitless military campaign that does not seem to represent any legitimate American interests. Once this happens, calls for DJT's impeachment will grow and his political opponents will likely use this for political points and calls to end US involvement in this will grow. Essentially it is probably not a good idea for US "allies" in the region or Taiwan to count on US support for an extended period. Essentially no one has yet to explain to Americans why, when they are already suffering terribly, they should die for Taiwan.
3.) The editor mentions "in ten years." ALLOT can happen in 10 years. No doubt America will change in this period. I would also expect China to change as well. Both countries will have "different players." America may not even be around 10 years from now. With that said, for America, House elections for every Representative every two years, Senate elections on a rotating basis every six years, and, in theory the potential for huge change quickly is possible. America might even become the most powerful country in the world 10 years from now. As such, China's political will might be even less 10 years from now than it is today. With that said the current trends for America relative to countries like Russia and China do NOT look good by any means.
4.)Something Taiwan should consider carefully, China has been there for thousands of years and has been a major power for quite some time. It will likely be a major power for centuries. It isn't going anywhere. At best, the willingness and ability of America to have a major influence in the region is very, very limited, perhaps to a few more years. When making decisions on how it is going to interact with China and America, Taiwanese and their leaders need to consider this carefully.
Never apologize B. Poster. You do not use foul language or express hate in your comments, you just express your views. And if someone does not like that point of view .... well .... too bad.
WNU,
Thank you for the kind words.
I imagine there have been detailed plans for the invasion of Taiwan in place for 65 years. Having a date set for launch is the ominous part.
The plans for the invasion of Canada and perhaps the US were developed and implemented long ago and from Canada's perspective are proceeding quite well.
Anonymous,
I think you are on to something here. I have essentially said the same thing here and elsewhere several times. Essentially make the Chinese "victory" pyric enough that they would not consider the invasion in the first place. Actually such a thing can probably be accomplished without American assistance.
I would suggest combining a proper deployment of Taiwanese forces to ensure that such a victory is indeed pyric along with finding ways to add value to China looking for ways to meet certain needs that they may have that the Taiwanese can perhaps fulfill better and more efficiently than anyone else can. In such a situation Taiwan is well defended and is adding value to China. In such an environment the Chinese will not want to attack because a.)the ensuing "victory" would be way to costly to have any utility and b.)Taiwan is providing them with things of value and obviously a military attack on Taiwan would mean the loss of these items/services.
As for who the "powerful allies" would be, I'm not sure but all of this should be able to be accomplished without America at least and, as I discuss above, relying on America at this point is unwise. While intentions may be sound with regards to assisting Taiwan for any length of time, the means to do so simply aren't there.
Furthermore the US needs "made in China" right now more than China needs "sold to USA" and the US needs to renegotiate the trade agreements with China. Additionally the US needs to upgrade its crumbling infrastructure along with building a military capable of being a credible threat in modern war. Given these needs, the "pivot" to the far east seemed like an extraordinarily dumb idea at the time and seems even dumber today than it did then. At least to me it does.
When the cease fire signed in Korean war, many Chinese POWs wanted to go to Taiwan to avoid communist mainland; others wanted to return to the mainland. These two factions often fought in the pow camps...Now we seem to be saying, let the current Taiwan residents decide which way to go with their allegiance. Perhaps this is the right thing to do, but it seems to dishonor those POWs who wanted to avoid China. And yet, that was then and this is now. East Berlin is now Berlin. Many vets from the Viet Nam war revisit a united Viet Nam...and even in the U.S., some of us are willing to travel from the North to visit states in the South. Catalonia is another present example; and French Canada worked out an arrangement with Canada to remain but keep its identity.
speculation, at best, and merely my guess: China will be a growing sphere of influence that will encompass Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, allowing them to be seemingly independent but really much less so than they had been. America will become the other major power, along with Russia, and Russia will attempt to play off each against the other, siding with one and then the other as suits their game in each instance.
It's always good to check sources,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2049_Institute
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