President Donald Trump poses for a photo with military commanders at the U.S. Eighth Army Operation Command Center at U.S. military installation Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, November 7, 2017. Also pictured is U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Newsweek: Will the U.S. Go to War With North Korea? Expert Estimates 50/50 Chance of Conflict in 2018
A war between the U.S. and North Korea is looking increasingly likely, with a nonproliferation expert estimating a 50/50 chance of conflict breaking out over the next year.
Mark Fitzpatrick, the executive director of the global security think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Americas, is the latest expert to closely evaluate the risk of a nuclear war as President Donald Trump continues to seek an international response shunning the North Korean regime in his five-nation Asia tour.
“Given the personalities involved on both sides, I do not rate continuation of the status quo as higher than 50 percent,” Fitzpatrick wrote in a post published Wednesday on the IISS website. He noted that he was not the only person to predict an increased likelihood of conflict, as former CIA director John Brennan recently put the chance of war breaking out at 20-25 percent.
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WNU Editor: I am still sticking to my prediction that there is a zero chance of a U.S.- North Korean war in the foreseeable future. But I will admit that when I read reports like this one .... North Korea orders workers in China, Russia to return home (UPI) .... my concerns do rise.
6 comments:
@WNU
there are very few things in the known physical universe that have a zero probability. I know what you're trying to say, but you're certainly technically wrong, and likely also figuratively. Look at these factos and snippets and tell me if you'd change your assessment (and to what number?) :)
1. Necessity: War may be forced on the US
2. Lack of insight: North Korea is -as we always say- a hermit state, and we/the intel agencies of the world say they don't know what's going on.. this affects all areas, technology, people as well as motivation
3. Change: Within half a year or one year+ (until end of 2018, the timespan we are talking about here), technological/research change may be possible in north korea, they may succeed in not one but perhaps two or three hydrogen bomb tests, and they likely will succeed in payload delivery capabilities. We currently expect them to have 12-60 nukes. Right now. That's a 5-fold difference in assessment. That's terrible when it comes to war. We know our missile shields are only 75% effective. Do the math. By end of 2018 North Korea credibly will be able to "wipe out" up to (0.25*60) = 15 cities. If we'd say one hit per city, which is unlikely, but we also haven't factored in that they may develop more nukes, upwards the potentially already existing 60 nukes. They may develop MIRC capabilities but I don't think so. China may do something the US cannot accept, maybe do something in the South China Sea, or something with regards to Taiwan or Japan.. anything is possible at higher than 0% chance and could/should therefore impact your assessment (technicality, I know, but still, you see my point)?...
4. Trump: You think you know him. I think I know enough of him and the circumstances and people that surround to be able to say I do not know him well enough to not see him by himself and his erratic behaviour as significant enough to change any prediction by another 5-10% upwards/downwards. :)
ok could go on like this for hours.. let me kow what your new number is :)
Anon,
When it comes to predictions I like absolutes. 100% or 0%, and I will explain why.
You (and most analysts) are looking at this from a military/intelligence point of view where percentages run supreme. Capabilities, trends, deployments, etc. .... this is where their numbers come from.
I am looking at this from a political level .... and at this level no political leader in the U.S. or in Asia wants a war right now. No one. In fact .... they are all making it clear that war is not an option. And as for the North Korean leadership .... their rhetoric is primarily focused on how they would respond to an attack .... not initiating an attack. Hence the reason why I am saying zero. When political leaders start talking and explaining why they must initiate a war, and backing it up by deploying assets to start a war .... that is when I will change my prediction to a 100%.
"When political leaders start talking and explaining why they must initiate a war, and backing it up by deploying assets to start a war .... that is when I will change my prediction to a 100%."
Lol.. you know how that sounds, right?
Stating the obvious. LOL
Trump has made it clear that he will not accept the status quo, if events stay on their current course how can the forecast be less than 100?
"Trump has made it clear that he will not accept the status quo."
Trump has said a lot of things that he has fallen back on, to be fair. His whole 'I will jail Hilary Clinton' pledge was shattered on the night of his election.
So what he says is one thing, what he does is another.
I honestly don't believe that the military institution of America will accept a nuclear armed North Korea. And I think they'll have the greater influence on the President in terms of providing a solution to the problem.
My own personal believe is that there is a high chance of a conflict happening.
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