The DMZ from the North Korean side Credit:Flickr
John Feffer, The Wire: What the Costs of a War in North Korea Could Be
A nuclear exchange between the US and North Korea would go off the charts in terms of lives lost, economies wrecked, environment destroyed.
Donald Trump is contemplating wars that would dwarf anything that his immediate predecessors ever considered.
He has dropped the mother of all bombs in Afghanistan, and he’s considering the mother of all wars in the Middle East. He is abetting Saudi Arabia’s devastating war in Yemen. Many evangelicals are welcoming his announcement of US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel as a sign that the end of days is nigh. The conflict with Iran is about to heat up early next year when Trump, in the absence of any congressional action, will decide whether to fulfill his promise to tear up the nuclear agreement that the Obama administration worked so hard to negotiate and the peace movement backed with crucial support.
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WNU Editor: The above author summarizes the studies and reports from others to deliver his estimate on what a war on the Korean peninsula could cost. Where I diverge with his commentary is that I do not believe like he does that the U.S. will initiate a war of choice against North Korea. President Trump's strategy has become clearer since his return from Asia two months ago .... and that is to use economic and political sanctions against North Korea to a level that they have never experienced before. We saw this strategy at play with the UN vote for greater sanctions this past Friday .... United Nations Security Council Unanimously Backs New Sanctions On North Korea (December 22, 2017). And while critics of these new sanctions say that it is too little and too late (there is a two year time frame before they are finally imposed), I say the opposite .... they will impact North Korea far sooner than what the critics are saying. But what worries me is that these sanctions may become the reason why North Korea initiates a conflict. We should not forget that the U.S. imposed sanctions against Japan before Pearl Harbor, sanctions that Japan justified on why they attacked the U.S.. Who is to say that the North Korean leadership would not do the same thing.
4 comments:
WNU Editor,
Very respectfully, if this war goes "hot," it is not a war of choice for America. North Korea is getting ready to hit us and hit us hard. The "choice" is either to act preemptively while we still have a fighting chance or wait until they hit us, absorb their crushing blow, and hope we are still able to respond.
While I like your optimism regarding the sanctions, I do not share it. Very respectfully its to little, to late, and to slow acting. Two years?!!?
As I predicted in September, "war within 6 months." That prediction has not changed. North Korea has backed us into a corner and has left us no choice. When it does happen, China will not escape unscathed. There dream of a Chinese century will be severely hampered if not ended outright. Russia and Western Europe figure to be big winners here.
I agree with B Poster, this is one of the few wars of necessity not choice in the u.s history.
I fail to see how war will NOT come by March if Kim does not change course, Trump administration could not be any clearer.
Anything else is but wishful thinking.
China's position on this is clear:
"USA,if you attack north Korea first we might help them (like last time)"
"North Korea, if you strike first we may not come to your help"
So it is relatively likely that China (in both cases but to varying degree of likelihood) will come to north Koreas help in some shape or form, at least that is the theory and what they want everyone, including north Korea, to believe - from what we publicly know.
We also know that China absolutely won't accept US invasion of North Korea. But, given that we also know that you cannot defend against north Korea's nuclear missiles reliably-especially not if you cannot try to take out all the mobile missile launchers (sold by China to north Korea! ) then you need a ground invasion. .but China forbids it! Forbids that USA tries to stay safe. To me that in itself is guarantee for war on the Korean peninsula - and likely, unless china doesn't change its war attitude, means conflict between China and usa as well - but initiated by china! It's easy to often think of the USA as the aggressor. .after all they are the biggest military and we know of all the conflicts they are involved in. .but here the aggression stems from north Korea and China. .that's what's so Bad because USA must be able to defend itself against north Korean nukes. ..And it will for sure,given the nature of the leadership in North Korea (a psychopathic mass murder with nukes)..how china could go so far as to sell that regime anything from the mobile rocket launch systems to the rocket fuel (literally, that's what they did!), is beyond me. A massive morale failure on the Chinese side and why no one can side with them on this issue
War of necessity my ass!
NK do not have the power to attack US and survive to the backfire, despite the propaganda.
If US want to use actions like Israel do against Saddam nuclear program in the past, they have lost this opportunity years ago.
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