Reuters
Asia Times/National Interest: What Would a Naval War Between China and India Really Look Like?
A tense Sino-Indian border standoff last year stirred speculation about what might happen if the two nuclear-armed Asian giants went to war.
Beijing and New Delhi have shelved their differences for now, but the potential for a future clash remains. This is nudging military analysts to theorize about the outcome of a possible face-off between Indian and Chinese forces along the Himalayan frontier and on the Indian Ocean. The relevancy of such assessments is heightened by Washington’s pursuit of a new Indo-Pacific strategy that views India as a counter-weight to China’s ambitions in the region.
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WNU Editor: Bottom line .... because of long distances and logistics both navies do not have the capability to inflict great harm on the other. But China is determined to build and deploy a fleet that will have that capability in the future. My guess is that in the next decade or two China will be able to wage war in the Indian Ocean .... and in the event that such a conflict does occur, my money will be on the Chinese.
3 comments:
Hell no, look at Somalia and how effective their pirates are. SEA would eat any naval force and you wouldn't even know who did it. It would be easy to hide S2S antiship missiles in that mean bush.
I have played it out, India crumbled to the might of Vietnam after I Myanmar repelled their advance. China is landlocked and can't effectively deploy without bottlenecking its troops. Truth is both Asian giants are at the mercy of the smaller surrounding Nations. I would argue India has the advantage as it could flood China with commandos to sabotage, but the terrain is just to difficult to overcome for anysort of effective campaign. It would be decided on who your friends are.
It seems if you want understand China's strategic thinking you have to consider everything in terms of 20-30yrs. This would bring into focus their abilities and hopes. It also brings to the front the most important question; succession to Xi. The agenda China is following cannot be done without the full support of the upper political echelon and here is one of China's great weaknesses. Not since the days of the Emperors has China had anything like that, if then, especially in the later 19th century. Also orderly succession to the top post doesn't imply a continuation of policy (something China has lacked for at least 2 centuries). It's obvious Xi's trying to solve these problems, but very few if anyone ever has.
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