North Korean leader Kim Jong Un provides guidance on a nuclear weapons program in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang September 3, 2017. © KCNA / Reuters
Warzone/The Drive: North Korea Shows Zero Signs It Is Willing To Consider Denuclearization
Now with an elevated international persona, Kim has opened the door to the chance of a nuclear freeze, but rapid denuclearization it is not.
North Korea's young and brutal dictator Kim Jong Un has gone from one of the world's top pariahs to a man in demand who is stepping out onto the world stage and getting rockstar-like attention in doing so. The signs of this ascension were evident when Kim's sister visited South Korea for the Winter Olympics. The press fawned over her like an exotic and wondrous creature from a mythical land. Then, following his unprecedented meeting with high-ranking South Korean officials, through which he sent a message to President Trump that he wanted to meet, the stage was set for the rise of Kim—even if it only turns out to be a temporary phenomenon.
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WNU Editor: The only one who has been talking optimistically on the upcoming Korean talks has been South Korean President Moon. As to what will be the substance of these talks .... no one has shown their hands, especially North Korea. But North Korea has suspended their missile and nuclear program .... that is a positive development. As to what is my expectation from these talks .... my hope is that in the upcoming North-South Korean talks there will be an understanding on what will be the short/medium/and long term goals between both nations. As to the upcoming Trump - Kim Jong Un talks, the same thing, but with a focus on the North Korea's missile and nuclear program. As to denuclearization .... that will be a long term goal, and it will be implemented in steps. First step is the freeze. Second step will be the dismantling of the nuclear infrastructure. Third step will be the removal/destruction of the nuclear material itself. Will it happen? .... my gut says yes because it is in everyone's interest (including North Korea) for it to happen.
3 comments:
The one problem to denuclearisation is the fact that Kim knows exactly what happened to other dictators that didn't have nukes.Saddam,Gaddafi,Milosevic all lost power either through direct US intervention or as a delayed result of that.Kim knows that his conventional forces even if they were the best in the world cannot survive a prolonged US assault.He also knows that whatever security guarantees are given by the US there is ultimately no certainty that a future administration will not cancel those guarantees.At the end of the day its a piece of paper and that can be cancelled out if the administration changes.Sure there might be war even with nukes but odds are Kim is thinking that if war is inevitable at least he'll cause so much loss to the US/allies that such a war will be viewed as a pyrrhicc victory at best.Only nukes offer that certainty.
Moon is a bit naive so I'd be very careful weighing his opinion too heavily. We all know that Kim will only give up nukes if he fully believes he'll die this year if he doesn't. His schmoozing up to everyone all of a sudden is nice but it reeks like a move to have more wiggle room and Moon seems to be stupid enough to play into this. Moon has to smarten up and be tough on this punk otherwise we will have war because of Moon. Stay tough until the mission is achieved, then we can all schmooze
Look what happened to Ukraine, Libya and Iraq's Saddam Hussein when they gave up nukes. No way Kim does and for good reasons, he's a bad man and would be killed by the company he keeps.
Interesting Bill Clinton, Bush II and Obama all took down those three countries either with a deal in Clinton's case or attacks. The US simply can't be trusted.
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