Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- May 8, 2018

David P. Goldman, Asia Times: An Israel-Iran war is unlikely – for the time being

Israel won’t take the risk of war short of an immediate existential threat, and Iran is unlikely to present one

An Israeli-Iran war would not be a limited conflict. Both sides would attempt to destroy the other’s capacity to fight, and the odds for the moment favor Israel.

Two dozen Israeli missiles or bomber sorties could wipe out Iran’s economy in a matter of hours, and that makes a war unlikely for the time being. Fewer than a dozen power plants generate 60% of Iran’s electricity, and eight refineries produce 80% of its distillates. A single missile strike could disable each of these facilities, and bunker-buster bombs of the kind that Israel used last month in Lebanon would entirely destroy them. And as Hillel Frisch points out in the Jerusalem Post, with a bit more effort Israel could eliminate the Port of Kharg from which Iran exports 90% of its hydrocarbons.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- May 8, 2018

Israel and Iran Prepare for Conflict -- Geopolitical Futures

Hezbollah Now Dominant Force in Lebanon Parliament -- A. Zavis & M. Tobia, Los Angeles Times

The First Saudi-Iranian War Will Be an Even Fight -- Afshon Ostovar, Foreign Policy

The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic -- Sohrab Ahmari, Commentary

North Korea's Nuclear Bait-and-Switch -- Amitai Etzioni, National Interest

Kim Jong Un is Playing America and China -- Doug Bandow, National Interest

Xi Jinping and the 'Chinese Dream' -- Matthias von Hein, DW

China's ambitious foreign policy agenda -- Rodion Ebbighausen, DW

The U.S-China Trade Standoff: Both Sides Dig in -- Clay Chandler, Fortune

Malaysia’s election teeters on a knife edge -- Nile Bowie, Asia Times

Moscow Has Little Reason to Return to the INF Treaty -- Alexander Velez-Green, Defense One

What the Senate should ask Gina Haspel before she heads the CIA -- Tim Weiner, Reuters

CIA: The Gina Haspel controversy runs deeper than her appointment -- Michael Knigge, DW

We Need a NATO for Infowar -- Elisabeth Braw, Defense One/Atlantic Council

Defector: WikiLeaks ‘Will Lie to Your Face’ -- Kevin Poulsen, Daily Beast