North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's with Chinese President Xi Jinping
Ronald Tiersky, RCW: What Will Kim Become?
The Singapore Summit pairing U.S. President Donald Trump with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is history, the hot takes have had time to cool, and it’s possible now to take a deeper look at what happened. The summit communique is vague, just a promise. Most important is what we’ve learned about Kim as a person, a leader, and a negotiator.
Kim Jong Un is a still a young and in many ways unformed man. In Singapore, he found himself out in the wider world, exposed to the international public’s eye for the first time as his nation’s leader. After years as his father’s successor-in-waiting and then as the country’s leader after 2011, Kim’s has been a life steeped in the make-believe North Korean totalitarianism created by his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, and then tended by his father, Kim Jong Il.
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WNU Editor: One of the better analysis that I have read on what have we learned about Kim Jong-un since the start of the Korean peace talks.
3 comments:
WNU,
I don't know which is the better question; you're header " What will become of Kim ..." or the article's "What will Kim become..." both excellent questions.
JH
My theory is that China put a huge amount of money into Kim's Swiss bank account to encourage Kim to back-off with the nukes and the missile launches. But probably Kim will stay in power until his death.
I think your "guess" may well be spot on. China (and Russia) are well positioned to dominate the 21st century. (It might NOT happen.)
The last thing they really want is a war right now or in the foreseeable future. NK served a useful purpose and will continue to do so. As such, Kim will survive and one of his descendents will one day rule or his handpicked successor will rule.
He does need to tone down the rhetoric and stop threatening to hurt Americans. I think he's gotten the message. If not, the Chinese can and will replace him with a more complaint puppet.
While this should be a relatively straightforward situation for America to navigate, the ability of US leadership to do stupid cannot be underestimated. Also, while DJT has shown flashes of sanity, the same can't be said of some other US leaders. We may not always have leaders like Trump.
With that said all parties are likely aware of what happened at the end of Cold War 1. Essentially NATO was not to be expanded. It was. That agreement was violated.
The parties are going to be careful not to make the same mistakes. Obviously a final agreement will need to include a realistic timetable for the withdrawal of US military personnel. Any POTUS worth his salt will demand this. As progress is made, our role should dissipate. This a good thing.
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