Reuters
SCMP: US-China trade war: worst yet to come for Chinese economy, say analysts
* Latest Chinese data shows economy is not collapsing, but raises questions about the outlook for consumer spending
* Data suggests government’s stimulus efforts are starting to bear fruit
Chinese consumers reined in their spending in October on increasing uncertainty amid the trade war with the United States, government data released on Wednesday shows.
But growth in fixed-asset investment and industrial production both accelerated during the first month of the fourth quarter, indicating that while the economy may be slowing, it is not collapsing under the weight of trade war uncertainty.
Analysts, however, said the worst was yet to come for the Chinese economy, as the impact of the trade war is expected to weigh on growth at least until the middle of next year. Many expected the government to enact more stimulus measures in the coming months to offset the affects of the trade conflict.
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WNU Editor: I am personally bearish on the Chinese economy. Too much credit and debt. There are many economic balloons (real estate, business debt, etc.). Beijing's political agenda of curbing dissent is also making it very difficult for foreign investors to invest in China. Dump in the current trade war with the U.S. .... so yes .... China's economy is not going to be what it use to be.
4 comments:
In the short-term, nothing good is going to come out of this trade war.
And even in the mid-term, the pain is going to far, far outweigh any benefits.
This is why a trade war should always be a last resort. As much as possible should be accomplished through negotiations, and it is unclear if negotiations were utilized as extensively as they could have in this case.
If China wants to play hardball, they could start dumping U.S. Treasuries or cut off our access to rare earth elements. If they pulled either trigger, our level of pain would instantly be multiplied.
We can definitely hurt China too, but we do not have any magic bullets that will force them to yield.
Once a trade war begins, it can potentially last for many years, and let us not forget that history has shown us that trade wars can often lead to shooting wars.
I believe that a tragic strategic mistake has been made, and this is not going to end well.
We pulled -all- investments out of China half a year ago and moved to SE_Asian countries. Never looked back. it's no secret anymore that China's days are counted. Look at employee migration too. Backwards now in SE Asia
The Chinese began selling US debt some time ago and have reduced their buying.
Rare earth minerals are available in this country but are closed to development because of environmental law. Other countries have them but they have not been developed or are locked up in partnership with the Chinese.
Anon #1, I have been reading of the problems of tariffs on the cost and availability of materials and foreign made parts for American solar panel manufacturers. I'm sure there are other similar situations. This indicates the tariff enactment has been done too precipitously, in my mind. Unfortunately, as I support DJT and his "adjustments" to bum trade deals.
There are 2 wars to defeat foes, fast and slow.
I guess people would rather be strangled to death and lose by bad trade deals than roll the dice on a trade war.
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