China's Economy Is Slowing Down

CNBC: China reports big data miss in July, stops releasing youth unemployment numbers 

* Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, according to analysts polled by Reuters. 

* Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected. 

* Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast by the Reuters poll. 

BEIJING — China reported July data that broadly missed expectations. 

The National Bureau of Statistics report also did not include the unemployment figure for young people, which has soared to record highs in recent months. 

Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, according to analysts polled by Reuters. 

Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected.  

Read more ....  

Update #1: China and Hong Kong Stocks Slump as Economic Gloom Spreads (New York Times) 

Update #2: Yuan Falls to Lowest Since November as Chinese Economy Sputters (Bloomberg) 

Update #3: China skips giving update on surging youth unemployment as economic slump deepens (AP)  

WNU Editor: This is not going to help .... China’s $138 Billion Shadow Bank Spirals at Terrible Time for Xi (Bloomberg). 

 Update #4: We shall see .... As China’s economy, population implode, Xi is looking to start a war (The Hill).

Is China About To Face A Debt Crisis?

Bloomberg: China’s $23 Trillion Local Debt Mess Is About to Get Worse 

 (Bloomberg) -- In 2021, a remote coal town in northeastern China was forced to undergo an unprecedented financial restructuring. Its struggles since are an ominous sign for President Xi Jinping as other heavily indebted municipalities look set to follow suit. 

Hegang, a city with nearly a million people near the Russian border, had debt of more than double its fiscal income when it hit the headlines almost 18 months ago. 

It was the first time a city administration had taken official emergency steps since the State Council unveiled rules in 2016 on how local governments, from counties to provinces, should deal with debt risks. 

Hegang’s residents are now feeling the brunt of the fiscal clampdown. During a recent visit to the city, locals complained about a lack of indoor heating in freezing winter temperatures, and taxi drivers said they were being slapped with more traffic fines. Public school teachers worried about rumored job cuts, and street cleaners endured two-month delays to their salaries. 

 Read more .... 

Update: China's effort to cut $10tn of 'hidden debt' faces uphill climb (Nikkei Asia)

WNU editor: The only way that China can control its debt crisis is the same way that the West must do to control its own debt crisis.They must cut expenses and grow the economy. 

Unfortunately, countries that are dependent on Western or Chinese debt are going to suffer .... China's loans pushing world’s poorest countries to brink of collapse (AP). More here .... Takeaways of AP’s report on Chinese loans pushing poor countries to brink of collapse (AP).

Chinese Stocks Suffer On Tuesday Worst Crash In History As Foreigners Flee With Their Investments

 

Bloomberg: Foreigners Flee China Stocks at Record Pace as Panic Spreads 

(Bloomberg) -- Foreign investors are on track to turn sellers of Chinese equities for the first time ever for the year, as concerns about a lack of supportive policies from the Party congress and a renewed Covid Zero push spook markets. 

Overseas investors sold a record net 17.9 billion yuan ($2.5 billion) of mainland shares via trading links with Hong Kong on Monday, according to Bloomberg data, tipping the year-to-date level into a small net outflow. 

If that holds through year end, it would be the first annual decline since the stock connect program was launched in 2014.  

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: This stock sell-off coupled with foreign companies leaving China is telling me one thing. Globalization as we know it is coming to an end.

Chinese Stocks Suffer On Tuesday Worst Crash In History As Foreigners Flee With Their Investments  

China shares slide in US as Xi starts historic third term -- BBC  

Hong Kong stocks plunge 6% as fears about Xi’s third term trump China GDP data --- CNN  

Alibaba, Tencent shares plummet 11% alongside China tech stocks as Xi tightens grip on power -- CNBC 

Chinese Stock Crash: Top Stocks Shed Nearly $70 Billion In U.S. As Xi’s Third Term Puts Market On Edge -- Forbes

 U.S.-listed Chinese stocks drop 15% after Beijing’s power reshuffle makes the market ‘uninvestable’ -- CNBC

Is China's Economy In Deep Trouble?

CNN: China’s economy is ‘in deep trouble’ as Xi heads for next decade in power  

Hong Kong CNN Business — When Xi Jinping came to power a decade ago, China had just overtaken Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. 

It has grown at a phenomenal pace since then. With an average annual growth rate of 6.7% since 2012, China has seen one of the fastest sustained expansions for a major economy in history. In 2021, its GDP hit nearly $18 trillion, constituting 18.4% of the global economy, according to the World Bank.

China’s rapid technological advances have also made it a strategic threat to the United States and its allies. It’s steadily pushing American rivals out of long-held leadership positions in sectors ranging from 5G technology to artificial intelligence.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: I lived and worked in China in the 1980s. I have traveled to the country more times than I can remember. I am someone who follows very closely its economy and government. China's economy has hit a road-bump, but it is still growing and expanding. But the U.S. - China trade war has now become a Cold War, and one that the U.S. is determined to win .... The U.S.-China Trade War Has Become a Cold War (Yukon Huang, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace). 

Update: The Chip War between the U.S. and China is intensifying .... The US government's new export controls are wreaking havoc on China's chip industry.

Is The Chinese Economy Experiencing A Near-Complete Collapse?

The Chinese economy is experiencing a near-complete collapse.

Nearly half a million customers have lost their deposits as the banks lent indiscriminately to housing developers who are now facing cascading defaults.

Here’s the story the Chinese Govt. doesn't want you to know 👇

— Graham Stephan (@GrahamStephan) August 17, 2022

WNU Editor: I have been following Graham Stephan's Youtube channel for years. He is young, but his analysis on business and economic trends have been usually spot on. And while I am one of those who does not believe that the Chinese economy is going to collapse, his analysis on the Chinese economy in the above thread (link here) is a must read. 

Update: Beijing is clearly worried .... China Plans $230 Billion Fiscal Stimulus Package As Slowdown Worsens (Zero Hedge).

A Run On Chinese Banks Is Growing

Victims of what could be one of China’s largest financial scandals have staged protests in Henan province since their savings were frozen in April. Photo: Weibo  

Asia Markets: There’s a run on Chinese banks and it’s being ignored by the world 

In the anatomy of an economic crisis, a bank run is the point of no return. 

Bank runs occur when people scramble to withdraw cash from banks in fear of collapse. In the worst cases, banks’ liquid cash reserves are exhausted, not everyone gets their money and the bank defaults. 

It’s a grim scenario which, fortunately, has occurred rarely in history. 

 Read more ....  

WNU Editor: This story is being unreported in the West. 

As to the crisis itself. Beijing is trying to control the situation by promising to compensate everyone .... China tries to stem growing anger over frozen bank deposits (CNN). 

All that I can say is that they better keep their promise.

China's Banking Crisis Worsens

Depositors protest in front of the Henan branch of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, demanding their money back after their funds were frozen. From Lan Nuo Nuo in February  

CNN: Small banks in China are running into trouble. Savers could lose everything  

Peter had put his life savings of about $6 million into accounts at three small banks in China’s central Henan province. He says he hasn’t been able to access them since April. 

The 45-year-old entrepreneur asked us to call him Peter for security reasons. He’s from the eastern city of Wenzhou and is just one of thousands of depositors who have been fighting to recover their savings from at least six banks in rural provinces in central China. 

“I’m close to having a nervous breakdown. I can’t sleep,” Peter told CNN Business. 

When he tried to access his accounts online, a statement would pop up on the homepage informing him that the website was under maintenance and services would be unavailable for a while, Peter told CNN Business. Two months later, those services have not been restored. 

The trouble began in April, when four banks in Henan suspended cash withdrawals. 

 Read more ....  

WNU Editor: This crisis is (so far) limited to the small banks in China. But if it continues and spreads, it will not only impact China, but global markets as well.

China’s GDP Grows 8.1% in 2021, The Fastest In 10 Years

 

CNBC: China’s economy grew 8.1% in 2021 compared to a year ago 

* Fourth-quarter GDP rose by 4% from a year earlier, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected China to report fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.6%. 

* However, retail sales missed expectations, growing by 1.7% in December from a year ago. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 3.7% increase. 

* For the full year, China economists had expected an average of 8.4% growth in 2021, according to financial data provider Wind Information. 

BEIJING — China’s economy grew by 8.1% in 2021 as industrial production rose steadily through the end of the year and offset a drop off in retail sales, according to official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics released Monday. 

Fourth-quarter GDP rose by 4% from a year ago, according to the statistics bureau. That’s faster than the 3.6% increase forecast by a Reuters poll. 

For the full year, China economists expected an average of 8.4% growth in 2021, according to financial data provider Wind Information. 

Industrial production rose by 4.3% in December from a year ago, the bureau said, also beating Reuters’ forecast of 3.6% growth. 

Notably, auto production grew for the first time since April, up by 3.4% year-on-year in December. 

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: China is pursuing the same policy it has in the past of cutting its interest rates to devalue its currency in order to spur an increase its exports .... China cuts rates on policy loans for first time since April 2020 (CNBC/Reuters). 

The Chinese economy is going to need this support. 

The economy is facing a credit/financial crisis with the collapse of China's major real estate development companies, and housing prices that are the back-bone of the Chinese economy are declining for the first time in years. 

 China’s GDP Grows 8.1% in 2021, The Fastest In 10 Years  

China’s GDP grows 8.1% in 2021, fastest in 10 years, spurring confidence despite challenges ahead -- Global Times  

China’s economy grows 8.1% in 2021, slows in second half -- AP  

China's economy expanded 8.1% in 2021, but growth is slowing -- CNN  

China's economy slowed at end of 2021 amid COVID outbreaks -- DW  

China posts 8.1% growth for 2021 but a property downturn and its zero-COVID policy could add pressure -- SKY News

China Facing Inflationary Pressures With Factory Price Inflation At 2008 High Adds

 

Bloomberg: China’s Factory Inflation at 2008 High Adds to Global Pressures 

Surging costs of imported commodities drove China’s factory-gate inflation to its highest level since 2008, raising the odds that exporters will begin passing on higher prices and boost inflationary pressures in the global economy. 

The producer price index climbed 9% in May from a year earlier, driven by price increases for oil, metals and chemicals, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. 

The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for an 8.5% increase. 

Consumer inflation increased only 1.3% from a year ago, missing an estimate of 1.6% and suggesting retailers aren’t hiking prices yet due to sluggish domestic demand.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: I mentioned this a few weeks ago. Speaking globally, China is the place to look at for future trends. Or to put it more bluntly. What  happens first in China eventually gets repeated in the rest of the world at a later date.

Case in point. China was the first country to experience the pandemic. The first country to close its economy. The first country to close its borders. The first country to open up (with restrictions). The first country to experience a booming economy. And now the first country to be experiencing serious inflation. My prediction. Higher inflation is coming to the rest of the world.

 More News On China Facing Inflationary Pressures  

The price of goods leaving China's factories is rising at its fastest pace in 13 years -- CNN

China’s factories now charging most for their goods in almost 13 years -- SCMP  

China Moves to Tame Inflation Before Prices Rise Too Much -- NYTimes 

China’s producer prices surge the most since 2008, cutting into business profits -- CNBC  

China Launches Price Controls After Red Hot Inflation, Highest PPI Since Lehman Collapse -- Zero Hedge

China's Inflation Could Be the World's Problem -- Bloomberg

China’s Bond Defaults Are Exploding. What Does This Mean?

Bloomberg: China’s Bond Defaults Pile Up at Fastest Pace on Record 

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese corporations are defaulting on local bonds at the fastest pace on record, as authorities ramp up efforts to introduce more financial discipline and transparency in the world’s second-largest debt market. 

Firms so far this year have failed to make payments on 99.8 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) of onshore bonds, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. While 2021 is set to be the fourth straight year the 100 billion yuan level has been topped, it previously hadn’t happened before September. For all of 2015, when China’s stock market crashed, defaults totaled just 8.9 billion yuan. 

Missed payments are running at a record pace this year, following the late 2020 defaults of some state-linked firms which affirmed convictions that authorities in China are increasingly willing to not bail out weak firms. The recent tumult surrounding bad debt manager China Huarong Asset Management Co. raised fresh questions about support for central state-owned firms, even as the risk of contagion remains relatively contained. Signs of a maturing credit market have helped Chinese officials’ effort to refocus on financial risks in areas like asset prices and debt levels. 

Read more ....  

Update: China’s New Pandemic: A Bond Default Crisis – OpEd (Andrew Moran, Eurasia Review)  

WNU Editor: For the past few months I have been telling my business colleagues that what happens in China will .... over a short period of time .... take place in the rest of the world. 

Case in point. 

China was the first country to be hit with the Covid-19 pandemic. They were the first country to lock down. They were the first country to open up. They were the first to expand (and are still expanding). 

Hmmm.....

In today's world it looks like everything happens first in China, and then the rest of the world follows. 

Ditto with these bond defaults. 

As China starts to tighten up its money supply I predict the rest of the world will follow. 

IMHO the US and other major Western economies are just starting to get into that discussion. But the Chinese are already there, and they are gung-ho to get rid of their bad assets as quickly as possible. Especially in their real-estate sector. 

Bottom line. 

In China there is going to be a lot of pain because of these bankruptcies and defaults. But in that mess stronger and more stable companies and institutions will quickly rise. And in turn a very strong and stable China. 

 I know the same is going to happen in the West. But delaying this inevitable restructuring will only mean the pain will be deeper when it happens, and the recovery will take longer. 

And as for China. They will be well positioned to become even more dominant in the global economy when this is all over. And the scary part is that I think they know it.

China Says It Will Take 30 Years For It to Achieve Manufacturing 'Greatness'

BBC: China says manufacturing 'greatness' still 30 years away 

China is at least 30 years away from becoming a manufacturing nation of "great power", a government advisor told party delegates on Sunday. 

Many observers already see China as the "world's factory" given that more than a third of global output from cars to phones comes from there. 

But China's leaders are concerned about its heavy dependence on the US for high-tech products like semiconductors. 

"Basic capabilities are still weak" Miao Wei warned on Sunday. 

"Core technologies are in the hands of others" and China runs the risk of "being hit in the throat" warned Mr Miao, who was Minister of Industry and Information Technology for a decade. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: China is still a long way from matching the U.S.. But it is making progress .... China sets 2021 GDP growth target of over 6% (CNBC).

China Sets GDP Growth Target For 2021 At 'Over 6%' And to Create 11 Million New Jobs

 

CNBC: China sets 2021 GDP growth target of more than 6% as premier warns of ‘formidable tasks’ in finance 

 * Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced Friday the world’s second-largest economy would target growth of over 6% for 2021. 

 * The premier struck an overall positive tone on China’s economic recovery from the pandemic, while noting areas of weakness such as “impediments” to consumer spending. 

 * Li also discussed hopes for China’s relationship with the U.S. and other international trade deals. 

BEIJING — China has set growth target of over 6% for 2021, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced Friday at an annual parliamentary meeting — the country’s most important political event of the year. 

Such growth would come off a low base. China reported GDP growth of 2.3% last year — the only major economy to expand amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

The country’s official economic figures are often doubted for their accuracy. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: I am always skeptical of economic stats from Beijing. But if this forecast is "somewhat" accurate, China will be easily surpassing the US economy within 7 - 8 years .... China’s economy could double in size by 2035 — and surpass the U.S. along the way (CNBC). 

 More News On China Setting Its GDP Growth Target For 2021 At 'Over 6%' 

China targets GDP growth of over 6% in 2021 as economic recovery gathers steam -- CGTN 

China vows to create 11m jobs in 2021, back at pre-epidemic level -- Global Times 

China sets growth target ‘over 6%,’ tightening HK control -- AP 

China rebounds with economic growth target above 6% -- BBC 

China sets growth target of more than 6% in 2021 -- CNN 

China sets growth target of more than 6% for 2021 -- Nikkei Asian 

China sets modest 6% economic growth target amid COVID rebound -- Al Jazeera 

Setting 2021 growth target at above 6 %, world will see China’s landmarks: Global Times editorial -- Global Times editorial

Report: Chinese Economy Will Overtake The U.S. As The Largest Economy By 2028

CNBC: New chart shows China could overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy earlier than expected 

 * The latest GDP reports show that of the U.S. fell by 2.3% in 2020, while China’s grew by 2.3% amid the coronavirus pandemic.

 * The divergence means China will likely overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy a few years earlier than anticipated, economists said.

 * However, they pointed out the two countries have different economic structures, and China’s per capita GDP is still far below that of the U.S. 

BEIJING — China is set to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy a few years earlier than anticipated due to the coronavirus pandemic, analysts said. 

The U.S. reported last week that gross domestic product in 2020 contracted by 2.3% to $20.93 trillion in current-dollar terms, based on a preliminary government estimate. 

In contrast, China said its GDP expanded by 2.3% last year to 101.6 trillion yuan. 

That’s about $14.7 trillion, based on an average exchange rate of 6.9 yuan per U.S. dollar, according to Wind Information data. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: The above prediction is based on low to negative U.S. economic growth, and continued major Chinese GDP growth from now till 2028. I doubt that these trends will continue. The Chinese economy is not as strong as many like to believe. And the US economy has always shown itself throughout history to have the capacity to have sustained major growth with the proper government financial/tax/and monetary policies.

China Says Its Economy Grew 2.3% In 2020

 

CNBC: China says its economy grew 2.3% in 2020, but consumer spending fell 

 * China reported GDP rose 2.3% last year as the world struggled to contain the coronavirus pandemic.   * Gross domestic product grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, official data from National Bureau of Statistics showed. 

 * Economists expected China to have been the only major economy to grow last year, and predicted GDP expanded by just over 2%. 

BEIJING — China reported Monday that its economy grew 2.3% last year as the world struggled to contain the coronavirus pandemic. 

Gross domestic product rose by 6.5% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, official data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. 

Those numbers beat analysts’ expectations. 

However, Chinese consumers remained reluctant to spend, as retail sales contracted 3.9% for the year. Retail sales for the fourth quarter rose 4.6% from a year ago. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: I am always skeptical of these reports. The people I know in China are telling me that the economy is nowhere near where they were before the pandemic. No one is investing in expanding their businesses. They are more focused on keeping what they have. And as for the Chinese consumer. They are focused on this .... Chinese Lockdowns Trigger "Chaos And Panic" At Grocery Stores As Prices Soar 50% (Zero Hedge). 

 More News On China Saying Its Economy Grew 2.3% In 2020 

China growth figures reveal key to recovery rests on virus control -- SCMP 

China's economy grows 2.3% in 2020 as recovery quickens -- CNN 

China's economic growth slowest in 4 decades amid pandemic -- DW 

Despite pandemic, China's economy grew 2.3% in 2020 -- UPI 

China Reports Stronger Than Expected GDP, Is Only Major Economy To Grow In 2020 -- Zero Hedge

Where Is Chinese Billionaire Jack Ma?

 

Charlie Campbell, Time: Where Is Alibaba Founder Jack Ma? What the Saga of One of the World's Richest Men Reveals About China Under Xi Jinping 

The response was as swift as it was resolute. 

On Oct. 24, Jack Ma, the man behind China’s e-commerce behemoth Alibaba, gave a speech in Shanghai at the Bund Summit, a gathering billed as a “an open, pragmatic and internationally influential financial high-end communication platform.” In such a setting, 56-year-old Ma probably felt entitled to share a few insights from a career that has seen him take Alibaba from a company of less than 20 people—started in his flat in the coastal city of Hangzhou in 1999—to a tech giant that pulled in $71.985 billion in revenue in the fiscal year ending Mar. 31, 2020. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: This is where I share a little bit of my experience from dealing with China for the past 35 years. 

China is a country that is politically ruled by a select few in the Communist Party with ties and relationships that go back decades. The country is also broken down provincially where each province does have a lot of power, but these provincial governments must still adhere to what the central government says, and Beijing must always be in the loop on what they are doing. The same goes for the large municipalities and cities. They have a lot of power, but they also must keep the provincial government (and in some cases the federal government) in the loop. 

The country is economically run by about 800 families, and all of them have long term ties and relations with the Communist Party both federally and provincially. There is also a golden rule in China that applies to these families and to everyone else. You can start a business and you have the freedom to grow and make money. And if you succeed you must reward and give thanks to the Communist Party for your success. But .... and this is what has happened to Jack Ma .... you must never never never publicly criticize the Communist Party. Jack Ma made his comments to a public forum. And now he is going to be an example of. 

My prediction. Jack Ma will be back, but a good part of his fortune will end up belonging (directly or indirectly) to some of the families who run the country. 

 More News On Jack Ma 

Where is Jack Ma? Tech tycoon silent as China gets tough with his business -- CNN 

Chinese billionaire Jack Ma suspected missing after calling for economic reform: report -- FOX News Chinese billionaire Jack Ma suspected missing -- Yahoo News 

Where is Jack Ma? Business tycoon MIA since October, name removed from his own show website -- Economic Times 

Jack Ma's disappearing act fuels speculation about billionaire's whereabouts -- Reuters

Jack Ma's Alibaba hit with antitrust probe, Ant Group scrutinized -- Business Insider 

Why is the Chinese government going after Jack Ma, the country’s richest man? -- The Hustle

New Report Says China's Economy Will Overtake The US 'By 2028'

China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said 

BBC: Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid 

China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, a report says. 

The UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said China's "skilful" management of Covid-19 would boost its relative growth compared to the US and Europe in coming years. 

Meanwhile India is tipped to become the third largest economy by 2030. 

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) report is here .... World Economic League Table. As to what is my take. A lot can happen from now to 2018. 

 More News On Reports That China Will Overtale The U.S. Economy By 2028 

The unstoppable rise of the Chinese dragon: China will overtake the US and become the world's biggest economy by 2028, report says -- Daily Mail 

China to leapfrog US as world's biggest economy by 2028 - think tank -- Reuters 

China's Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid Fallout -- Bloomberg 

China expected to surpass US economy in 2028: analysis -- The Hill 

China to overtake US as world's biggest economy by 2028, report predicts -- The Guardian 

China to leapfrog US as world’s biggest economy by 2028: Report -- Al Jazeera

Chinese President Xi Tells China It's Time For Change: 'Can No Longer Rely on Old Model of Development'

Xi Jinping said China will have to build reliable domestic production and supply chain 

NDTV: Time For Change, China Can't Rely On Old Model Of Development: Xi Jinping 

"We shouldn't and couldn't simply repeat the previous model, but should strive to shape new industrial chain," Xi Jinping said 

Beijing: President Xi Jinping said on Saturday that China can no longer rely on its previous economic development model of depending on global exports and must build self-controlled, safe and reliable domestic production and supply system to ensure industrial and national security. 

The just-concluded plenary session of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC), headed by Xi, adopted his proposals to make the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). 

While the 14th five-year plan envisages a massive overhaul of the country's domestic market to boost consumption in order to reduce China's reliance on shrinking exports markets, the Vision 2035 visualizes a long-term plan, reflecting the development vision of Xi. 

Politically, Xi's Vision 2035 plan has sparked speculation that he could continue in power for the next 15 years. 

Read more .... 

Update #1: Xi leads efforts to draw China's new development blueprint (CGTN) 

Update #2: Xinhua Headlines: China's new roadmap promotes own development, propels global growth (Xinhuanet) 

WNU Editor: This is big news, and ignored completely in the West. President Xi is envisaging a massive overhaul of the country's domestic market to boost consumption in order to reduce China's reliance on shrinking exports markets. 

He is reading the tea leaves. China's exports are not going to grow as much as expected. Time to look inward and boost the domestic market. But to accomplish this I sense President Xi is going to do something that I thought he would never do. Liberalize the economy and limit Beijing's participation to oversight. This is something that China's provinces have been clamoring for decades, and it looks like President Xi has just given them what they have always wanted. What will not change will be China's barriers and tariffs against imports (no surprises there). Many details are still not known, The next few months/year are going to critical. If this is the direction that China is going, we will know soon enough. But if this is the direction that China is going .... WOW! China's GDP numbers are going to explode.

IMF Now Says The Chinese Economy Is The Largest In The World

China Daily Graham Allison, National Interest: China Is Now the World’s Largest Economy. We Shouldn’t Be Shocked. 

China has now displaced the U.S. to become the largest economy in the world. Measured by the more refined yardstick that both the IMF and CIA now judge to be the single best metric for comparing national economies, the IMF Report shows that China’s economy is one-sixth larger than America’s ($24.2 trillion versus the U.S.’s $20.8 trillion). Why can't we admit reality? What does this mean? 

This week, the IMF presented its 2020 World Economic Outlook providing an overview of the global economy and the challenges ahead. The most inconvenient fact in the Report is one Americans don’t want to hear—and even when they read it, refuse to accept: China has now displaced the U.S. to become the largest economy in the world. Measured by the more refined yardstick that both the IMF and CIA now judge to be the single best metric for comparing national economies, the IMF Report shows that China’s economy is one-sixth larger than America’s ($24.2 trillion versus the U.S.’s $20.8 trillion). 

Despite this unambiguous statement from the two most authoritative sources, most of the mainstream press—with the exception of The Economist—continue reporting that the U.S. economy is No. 1. So, what’s going on? 

Read more .... 

Update #1: China's economy is the envy of the world (CNN) 

Update #2: China GDP: economy grew by 4.9 per cent in third quarter of 2020 (SCMP) 

WNU Editor: According to the IMF, China's economy is $24.2 trillion versus the U.S.’s $20.8 trillion. This is a major change for the IMF, which always put the U.S. as number one (see here). Is this all accurate? When it comes to China and its data I am always skeptical, and I am not alone .... Can China’s reported growth be trusted? (The Economist). But it is also true that China's economy has grown incredibly in the past two decades, and its growth will continue. So while the U.S. is in my opinion still the world's largest economy, its days are numbered.

China Has Started To Massively Stockpile All Possible Commodities

Qinzhou Port is seen in Qinzhou City, south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Jan. 10, 2018. (Xinhua/Lu Boan)

Zero Hedge: What Possible Disruption Is Coming That Requires China To Start Massive Stockpiling Of All Possible Commodities

Today is like one of those rare occasions when the Broadway understudy for a leading role finds out that the star has the ‘flu (not Covid-19) and so they get to go in front of the audience for once. Yes, Europe, today is your time to shine: “Everything’s coming up Milhouse!”.

Or not. Because the pressure is certainly on.

First, we have the ECB. The market whisper is that they have decided that a global backdrop where the Fed, BOE, RBA and RBNZ, among others, have all flagged that things remain grave, and that far more easing can still be; where a second wave of the virus is clearly evident; and where we are worryingly close to a Hard Brexit, is the right time to sell sunny economic uplands ahead. Or at least that is what the markets will perceive the outcome to be if we indeed see their economic forecasts revised upwards without the right serious tone. They will take that to mean that while everyone else is close to doing more, the ECB isn’t. And the impact, if we haven’t already seen it in buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact manner, will be appropriate.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The last time China did something like this was in January when they were running around the world buying everyone's stockpile of PPEs. In this case I think they are deeply concerned that there are going to be massive economic aftershocks from Brexit, inflation because of all of this deficit spending, and the growing possibility of sanctions.

Selling Clean Bottled Water Has Made This Person China's Thrid Richest Person

Zero Hedge: Chinese Bottled Water IPO Is 1,148 Oversubscribed, Makes Founder China's 3rd Richest Person

With US stocks suddenly in freefall, they are only now catching up to a recent bout of weakness in China where the Shanghai Composite - which has gone nowhere since early July - just dropped below its 50DMA.

The lack of a market meltup in China, however, has clearly not dented local appetite for stocks and as a result the founder of China’s biggest bottled water company - whose red-capped plastic bottles can be seen at most official gatherings in China because apparently in China there are huge barriers to entry to putting clean water in a plastic bottle - just became the country’s third-richest person after shares in his company surged 54% on their IPO in Hong Kong. Nongfu, raising more than $1 billion in its Hong Kong initial public offering this week.

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WNU Editor: I tried to get into this business in China in the early 1990s. My Chinese partners were /are connected, but unfortunately not connected enough. We could not get the permits and licenses to pull it off. I was told later that there were too many hands who wanted to be greased.