China Will Be Able To Invade Taiwan Far Sooner Than What The Pentagon Thinks

Grant Newsham, Asia Times: Can the PLA get across the Taiwan Strait?

While the Pentagon appears to be skeptical, the facts and the numbers tell a different story.

The Pentagon’s recently released 2019 China Military Power Report says PLA forces cannot conduct a full-scale amphibious assault on Taiwan – and are “less likely” planning for one.

The report claims the PLA does not have enough amphibious ships – and isn’t building enough of them either. In military jargon, the PLA lacks “lift.”

In terms of the newest modern amphibious ships, it’s true China has only five large Type 071 amphibious transport docks. However, three more are in the works or outfitting, and the bigger Type 075 helicopter carrier is reportedly now in production.

But here’s what matters most: an amphibious ship needn’t be the newest model or, as the Americans seem to think, cost $1 billion each. The PLA Navy already has about 50 older amphibious ships that are more than capable of making the trip across the Taiwan Strait and disgorging PLA Marines, and by 2030 it will have more than 70 amphibious ships in total.

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Previous Post: If China Invades Taiwan Who Would Win? (January 2, 2019)

WNU Editor: China still has a long way to go before they are able to successfully invade and occupy Taiwan .... Is China Laying The Groundwork For War With Taiwan? (May 6, 2019). But as this blog has mentioned more than once in the past, never underestimate China. Thirty years ago the Chinese military did not have boots for their soldiers. Today they have aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and a growing and professional army that is in the top five in the world. One can only imagine what they will have five to ten years from now. And as for China invading Taiwan. They can do it, but the casualties will be heavy and there is no guarantee of success. But here is an easy prediction. The scenario will be different five to ten years from now .... especially if China maintains its current military buildup, and Taiwan decides to not build-up their defenses accordingly.