Reuters
Business Insider: Trump's latest tariffs could drag China's growth to its lowest level in almost 30 years — but there's still 'no chance' it will cave to US demands
* China has consistently grown by more than 6% for almost 30 years, but Trump's latest tariffs could break that trend.
* The duties could slow growth by up to 0.5 percentage points this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists.
* Tariffs "pose some challenges to China's exports and economy," the country's foreign ministry has said.
* However, economists argue "there's no chance that President Xi will agree to US demands."
The Trump administration's tariffs on China could drop the Asian superpower's economic growth to its lowest level in nearly 30 years.
The upcoming duties on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods could reduce growth by up to 0.5 percentage points this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists. The lower bound of the Chinese government's annual growth target is 6%, and a Reuters poll in July forecast growth of 6.2% this year.
Some of the new tariffs are scheduled to take effect at the start of next month, while the rest are set to go live in mid-December.
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WNU Editor: China has a lot of internal structural and debt problems that are going to lower its growth in the coming years. It has also lost its attraction as a place for foreign investment to go to. And while its competitors like India and Vietnam still have a long way to go before reaching the level of China when it comes to providing goods in the global supply chain, the trend lines are clear.
1 comment:
WNU. Absolutely. I have seen this first hand over the last 10 years or so. Lived many years in SE Asia and have first hand witnessed
a) how all the factories came, first to Thailand and then Vietnam, and it continues to other nations too.. everyone leaves China because they predicted and knew what was coming / everyone knew in Asia that China will collapse! That's the crazy thing, and here is why:
b) I also witnessed first hand how deep the hatred against the Chinese is in the countries surrounding China: How the Vietnamese despise them, call them soul-less money seekers, and hate them for trying to influence their Northern region, destroying the environment and on and on.. same in Singapore, same in Thailand, same in India, same in Philippines.. when I saw this, and the idiot-level diplomacy China conducts (not "talk gently but carry a big stick", but "pretend to have a bit stick and bully everyone")... they have not understood the philosophy of the West. Our philosophy is: "help others so they can help themselves to be free", and the wisdom in it. They have rejected it for money. Thought money is what rules us all. Money is temporary. What rules us all is the understanding that we all are free and money is just there for the moment. Chinese bet on the money too heavily, doubling down on their idea that they can fake it, BUT with no underlying core values (like in the US for example, where capitalism is tolerated because no one has found a better answer yet, but at least there is an understanding of the dignity of the individual, even if perverted in many forms. In China you don't even have that. There is no dignity of the individual. Only the collective. Means entire populations are forcefully resettled. Means concentration camps @ Udur. Means religion is forbidden because it competes with the state collective. Means free thinkers are forbidden. Means certain books are forbidden (and you not just loose the books, as the Hong Kong book dealers will attest, those that still can)..
so yeah.. China's century ended because it was built on weak foundations. The US will prevail, because even though it also "only" offers capitalism, it does so on much stronger foundations, enshrined in the constitution, and is open to change. China is not. China will collapse and then change will come.
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