Edward Chang, National Interest: How Iran Could Try to Shut off the Global Oil Supply
(Close the Strait of Hormuz.)
Key point: Iran could try to stop some oil tankers from getting out of the Gulf, but doing so would lead to a firm U.S. response.
President of Iran Hassan Rouhani threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to potential sanctions that could be levied upon Iranian oil exports, threats which were echoed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). President Donald Trump has given countries until November 4, 2018, to stop importing petroleum from Iran. This wide-scale ban is part of a new campaign of confrontation and pressure against the Islamic Republic. This demand comes on the heels of the U.S. departure from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, which was signed in 2015.
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WNU Editor: Sink a few oil tankers will be more than enough to shut down the oil trade through the Strait.
4 comments:
Iran will cut its throat too and get the anger of the rest of the world. I don't believe Iran is that stupid.
Iranians are educated and smart people who are not so dumb as to think they can win a war against US, or, even attack the US mainland for that matter. However, Iran is one of the few countries that can also ensure that USA does not become victorious against it.
There are simply many factors that are highly beneficial to Iran in a war scenario:
A population of over 80 million people.
A young combat-capable age population.
A highly educated youth
A lot of ballistic and cruise missiles
Powerful proxies including Hezbollah, Shia militias, Houthis etc. which can be unleashed on US assets in the middle east.
The size of Iran is 3 times the size of Iraq making it easier for them to spread out/hide military targets.
Iran can easily close down the strait of Hormuz and collapse the global economy and yes while that might piss off a lot of the world the attack on Iran will be seen by many as the primary instigation of that event.
Keep in mind of course, the Iranian dedication and perseverance demonstrated in their war with Iraq, which was US supported.
So, while the US can bomb Iran from the air and sea, the problem is that Iran can then, target all US bases in the middle east, destroy Saudi Arabia's Oil Industry,
set the Middle East alight through the use of proxies meaning, the war will spread to Lebanon, Israel, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Gaza.
From China and Russia's perspective they might see value in arming Iran to, in Russia's case provide some measure of payback for assistense the US provided Afghanistan way back, and perhaps even along with China, to trap US into another Vietnam/Afghanistan/Iraq quagmire.
In other words, it will not be the breeze Iraq was, still is, and bombing Iran does have the potential to become a worse nightmair.
Plus the logistics nightmare we would experience getting everything to the area, stored, and handed out.
Booby Boo supports his argument with 5 points (a rare occasion), but then fails to delve into analysis to support these points.
- A young combat-capable age population.
Being young does not make one combat capable. Iran had a lot of young people running across minefields clearing them with their feet. They were combat capable for less than 15 minutes.
Are the women protesting the burkha going to be part of the war effort or are the dear ayatollahs going to have more prison guards and executioners than front line troops? Are the Arabs in the southwest, the Baluchis of the south east, the Kurds and the Azeris going to support Bob's dear regime? Bob have you been drinking again? You don't make sense every time you come back form the casino.
- A highly educated youth
"9. According to 2015 estimates, the literacy rates of total population age 15 and over is 86.8% of which 92.1% are male and 82.5% are female."
- A lot of ballistic and cruise missiles
Those are stockpiled over years in Lebanon's case. Basically, they shoot their wad and then they get rolled. Liberals look to the 2006 war as to Hezbollah's resilience. In a general war scenario They should look to the Soviet experience in the Fall of Berlin. At first the Soviets took horrendous losses. Then they changed tactics. I do not expect liberals to do much to help their Hezbollah allies in such a scenario. Studies of the news cycles and languages show that that will be the case.
Maybe if worse comes to worse Bob, you can hide out in Paraguay with Hezbollah hoping that the allied governments forget you after the war.
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