Iranian protesters block a road during a demonstration against an increase in gasoline prices in the central city of Shiraz on on 16 November (AFP)
Shahir Shahidsaless, Middle East Eye: Iran petrol protests: Why war could be the only way out of US sanctions spiral
The dollar's dominance of world trade has made sanctions against Iran all the more lethal, leading to economic pain and a huge budget deficit
An abrupt decision by the Iranian authorities to hike petrol prices as part of efforts to confront the effects of crippling US sanctions sparked demonstrations in cities and towns across the country. According to Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), “the degree of destructions was more extensive than during the 2017-2018 protests.”
At least 12 people have been killed - so far - and, according to Fars News Agency, 100 banks have been set on fire and more than 1000 protestors arrested. In the last three days, the country’s internet shutdown has disconnected Iran from the rest of the world.
The crackdown has been harsh. The country’s economic downturn threatens not just the administration but the establishment as a whole. Now, the question becomes: which direction will Iran take?
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WNU Editor: Iran's government is facing a massive shortfall in its budget (a loss of almost a half due to collapsing oil revenues) due to U.S. sanctions. In response, they have raised taxes and eliminated subsidies without appreciating the response that they would face from the public. They do now, and I also do not think they have any idea on where to go from here. Hence the war speculation being circulated by pundits who closely observe Iran.
8 comments:
War with whom?
Not sure how Iran starting a war, even a limited one, will actually help. The article says a limited war would raise oil prices, thus making Iran more limited with the fuel it manages to export.
Yet any war will also have a financial cost.
And any war would increase the likelihood of attacks on Iran that target its infrastructure and oil facilities. And allow its opponent(s) to blockade its ports or attack its shipping. 80-90% of its energy exports are shipped out of Kharg, and 80% of its container imports go through Bandar Abbas. Both would be easy to block or damage, and while some of that could be rerouted, Iran's other ports don't have the infrastructure to handle that diversion. These are two easy targets which could cripple the Iranian economy.
Iran's only hope in such a war would be that it could "punish" its neighbors and the rest of the world more than it would take in damage, and put pressure on the US to lift sanctions.
But any escalation could easily get out of control.
The US embargo on Japan in 1941 was to force Japan to behave and come to peace in China, but the Japanese militarists instead decided on attacking the US and the Allies, bring the US into World War II. An Iranian decision to go to war might bring some relief in the intermediate term, but it might also backfire.
Chris
,,,
A bit harsh, not everyone in Iran is 'evil', but your rise up and defeat the Mullahs is desperately needed.
The history of America and Iran did not begin with the occupation of the US embassy in Tehran and accordingly the people of America should review the information in the following reference before sanctimoniously hating Iran and Iranians.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/cia-assisted-coup-overthrows-government-of-iran
A lot of stuff has occurred since that CIA accomplishment back in 1953 including America's support for Iraq during that little war against Iran, and similarly the threats of Americans against such an intruder into their country would be just as vehement.
If an intruder were to break into your house you would be within your rights to shoot that intruder and brag about it. Same with other countries.
America's problem is that Iran kicked them out and that is a major loss of face and of course a piss off. It has to end somewhere and rather than kill millions more people, including American soldiers, I suggest America and Americans should stop being two faced and accept blame for some of the crap they caused.
The Iranian's shout "Death to America" in the streets. No need for further discussion beyond saying we recognize many Iranian's despise the Mullahs but are cowed into silence. Any Americans supporting the Iranians are traitors, no matter the CIA history. Never apologize. Something Obama never learned and that is why he is despised today.
Sticks and stones ...... little man
Obama is hardly despised today...perhaps by you and your pals, yes, but not by majority of Americans...
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