Grant Newsham, Asia Times: Taiwan war: global economic, psychological damage
Think of the empires that ruled most of the world in 1914, and their decline into rubble by the end of 1918
Besides the human toll and physical damage to Taiwan and the likely staggering casualties on all sides, the global economic and financial ripple effects of a war for Taiwan will be immense and long-lasting.
It is not hyperbole to suggest the world will be unrecognizable afterwards: think of the powerful empires that ruled most of the world in 1914, and their decline into rubble by the end of 1918.
China is so deeply integrated into the world economy – given its position as a manufacturing hub and exporter as part of global supply chains and as a huge consumer of many nations’ raw commodities – that serious disruptions to global economic activity are unavoidable.
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WNU Editor: A sobering read on the consequences of a China - Taiwan war.
3 comments:
Yes. A sobering read - if the rest of the world was a collection of helpless, barren banana republics (which many are). The article is alarmist. It doesn't explore the toll on China if it were to invade Taiwan. If China were to invade Taiwan, their isolation would be total. All critical supplies, EG: oil, ore, pork, copper - would stop.
The current industrial exodus from China is rapid. It continues now and would accelerate massively if they embarked on an invasion of Taiwan. An immediate evaporation.
And the cost. Take for example the US invasion of Irag. Quite costly. China's economy is smaller and contracting and what passes for consumer confidence there is on the down swing.
Taiwan has US weapons and doctrine. Presumably US military protection as well.
China has no regional allies. No cultural allies. It would find itself alone - even more so than Nazi Germany. China would find itself in the proverbial position of itself against the world.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a bad idea for everyone. Especially China.
Best not to worry about impossible scenarios. Recent events of the last 5 years show that the world and west in particular do not want war, and would wear all but the most kinetic prove cation.
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