Will The Afghan Army Fall Apart When The U.S. Leaves?

Reuters

National Interest: Will the Afghan Army Disintegrate After U.S. Withdrawal?

If the Afghans don’t demonstrate political maturity and foresightedness, then their actions will lead to the disintegration of the Afghan army for a third time in a century.

As the United States starts to pull out its troops from Afghanistan, its Afghan allies—primarily the Afghan army—are left to fend for themselves. While for the time being the Afghans are reassured of continued U.S. assistance, there’s little reason to believe the U.S. will keep its word. Once U.S. troops pull out completely—which is expected to happen by June 2021—the Afghan army’s fate will hang in the balance.

Since 1880, Afghanistan has tried three times to build a national army from scratch. All three attempts have been made with assistance from a major foreign power. When Amir Abdur Rahman Khan came to power in 1880, he needed a strong army to crush his opponents and restore order. Since Abdur Rahman Khan lacked the resources and funds to raise and maintain an army, the British came to his rescue. With British annual subsidies and arms supplies, Abdur Rahman Khan built a hundred thousand strong army.

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WNU Editor: A good historical review of the Afghan Army, and I agree with the three possible scenarios that the above author lists. My prediction. Afghanistan is a deeply divided country, and there will be no unity government in the future. With no money the Afghan Army will break down, probably within a few months.