Will The Afghan Army Fall Apart When The U.S. Leaves?

Reuters

National Interest: Will the Afghan Army Disintegrate After U.S. Withdrawal?

If the Afghans don’t demonstrate political maturity and foresightedness, then their actions will lead to the disintegration of the Afghan army for a third time in a century.

As the United States starts to pull out its troops from Afghanistan, its Afghan allies—primarily the Afghan army—are left to fend for themselves. While for the time being the Afghans are reassured of continued U.S. assistance, there’s little reason to believe the U.S. will keep its word. Once U.S. troops pull out completely—which is expected to happen by June 2021—the Afghan army’s fate will hang in the balance.

Since 1880, Afghanistan has tried three times to build a national army from scratch. All three attempts have been made with assistance from a major foreign power. When Amir Abdur Rahman Khan came to power in 1880, he needed a strong army to crush his opponents and restore order. Since Abdur Rahman Khan lacked the resources and funds to raise and maintain an army, the British came to his rescue. With British annual subsidies and arms supplies, Abdur Rahman Khan built a hundred thousand strong army.

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WNU Editor: A good historical review of the Afghan Army, and I agree with the three possible scenarios that the above author lists. My prediction. Afghanistan is a deeply divided country, and there will be no unity government in the future. With no money the Afghan Army will break down, probably within a few months.

Afghanistan Purges Mujahdeen And Soviet-era Army Generals

Seventy three Afghan Army officers graduated from the Afghan Army Command and Staff College’s Command and General Staff College course. The mission is to provide professional military education for First Lieutenants to Major Generals (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Jeff Nevison)

Al Jazeera: Kabul purges Mujahdeen and Soviet-era army generals

A major shakeup at the top level in the Afghan army amid a resilient Taliban revolt has caused shockwaves in the war-stricken country.

President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani directed the retirement of more than 160 Afghan National Army (ANA) generals last week.

The Kabul government has labeled this move part of the broader strategy for reforms in the security sector, and phasing out the older generation of officers.

"We want reforms to win the war and peace. We don't want reforms just for the sake of reforms. This process will continue for our brighter future," the president said in a statement.

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WNU Editor: This is long overdue .... Afghanistan Has More Generals Than The U.S. Military (December 20, 2016)

Will These 11,000 Soldiers Save Afghanistan?

Afghan elite soldiers stand in formation at the School of Excellence, where Afghan commandos and Special Operations soldiers receive training on Feb. 27 at Camp Morehead Afghanistan. (Tim Craig/The Washington Post)

Washington Post: These are the 11,000 soldiers who might save Afghanistan

CAMP MOREHEAD, Afghanistan — Sgt. Jawed Hazara, with an elite Afghan army commando unit, chugged an energy drink, grabbed his M-4 assault rifle, and hopped into the driver’s seat of a military pickup truck. The 24-year-old was directing a convoy of commandos on night patrol in the southern outskirts of Kabul.

“Now, we do my job,” Hazara said as he fumbled with his radio and sped off the base. “By the grace of God, I will do a good job.”

Indeed, if large swaths of Afghanistan are to be saved this year, that responsibility will likely rest on how Hazara and 11,500 other Afghan commandos perform as their country staggers into the 15th year of the Taliban insurgency.

Despite more than $35 billion in U.S. support since the Taliban was driven from power here in 2001, the regular Afghan army is still broadly criticized as ineffective because of defections, timidity and an inconsistent command-and-control network. But U.S. and Afghan officials believe the army’s commando and Special Forces units can fill the void and should be sufficient to reassure nervous Afghans that the Taliban won’t be able to fight its way back into power.

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WNU Editor: It is going to take a lot more than just 11,000 soldiers to save the country. You would also need good governance, the end of corruption, the elimination of the opium trade, economic growth, a legitimate legal structure, etc..

Desertions In The Afghan Army Is Adding To The Country's Security Woes

Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers patrol at an outpost in Helmand province, Afghanistan, in this December 25, 2015 file photo. REUTERS/Abdul Malik/Files

Reuters: Desertions deplete Afghan forces, adding to security worries

Afghan Lieutenant Amanullah said he was ready to fight to the death to stop the Taliban making gains across the south of the country, where insurgents have already overrun a series of districts in their traditional heartland.

In November, 15 months after joining up, he deserted, one of thousands of tired and frustrated soldiers who have shed their uniforms, seriously blunting the Afghan army's power to repel a growing militant threat.

For Amanullah, everything changed late last year when, fighting on an empty stomach and without being paid for months, militants armed with rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns attacked his base from all directions in a three-day battle.

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WNU Editor: The existence of "Ghost Soldiers" also does not help .... Afghan forces struggle as ranks thinned by 'ghost' soldiers (AP). NATO .... not surprising .... is also seeing problems .... Leaked NATO Report Breaks News of Afghanistan's Incapable Army (Sputnik).

Afghanistan's Security Forces Facing A Shortage In Winter Clothing

Afghan security forces arrive at the Kunduz airport, April 30, 2015. REUTERS/OMAR SOBHANI

Reuters: Afghan police may face shortage of winter clothing: U.S. watchdog

Afghanistan forces could face a shortage of more than 90,000 coats this winter, which may affect its ability to fight the Taliban, a U.S. government watchdog said.

In a letter to the Pentagon dated Sept. 16, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) John Sopko said the shortage could extend into next year.

See the full letter here

Sopko wrote that the U.S.-led Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A), which is responsible for training Afghan forces, had ordered more than 75,000 coats for Afghan police for delivery by July 2015, but they still had not been delivered.

Another 15,000 coats were not scheduled to be delivered until July 2016, it said.

Update: Afghan security forces don’t have enough cold-weather clothing: report -- Washington Times

WNU Editor: Apparently many of these coats are only going to be delivered in March, 2017 (when the next winter is over).

The Afghan Army Is Disappearing

Gary Owen, Vice News: The Real Reason the US Military Was So Secretive About Afghanistan

WNU Editor: This is the "money quote" ....

.... Campbell doesn't care if people know how much America spent on literacy training, or how many planes are in the Afghan air force. What he cares about is people knowing that the army that's supposedly taking over for the US is disappearing. It's impossible for the ANA to miss troop strength goals this badly and survive.

In short .... the Afghan Army cannot make up the soldiers that it is losing through combat and the usual attrition. If this is true ....it is only a matter of time before this shortfall in troops will reach the breaking point, and someone will need to step in .... which in this case I can only presume will be the U.S..

Hat Tip to reader Jay for providing this lead/link.

U.S. Green Berets: Afghan National Army Is Incompetent

Afghan Maj. Gen. Sayed Malouk, commander of the Afghan National Army’s 215th Corps, looks beyond the perimeter on Camp Leatherneck in Helmand Province, Afghanistan, Oct. 27, 2014. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Staff Sgt. John Jackson

Green Berets Reveal Afghan National Army soldiers’ incompetence -- Washington Times

Reports say ANA troops hide from battle, can’t lead or fight at night

Elite Army Green Berets are knocking the performance of the Afghan National Army, telling war tales of its soldiers hiding and quitting the fight.

The Green Beret criticisms, contained in a U.S. Central Command “friendly fire” investigative file, provide a window into the flaws of a national army more than a decade in the making.

The soldiers gave statements to investigators after going into battle June 8-9 in the Gaza Valley of Zabul province, northeast of Kandahar. The Green Berets told of Afghan soldiers refusing to fight and hiding among trees and behind a rock.

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Update #1: Army Green Berets reportedly criticize performance of Afghan army troops -- FOX News
Update #2: Green Berets narrate incidents of Afghan National Army's 'ineptness' during US central command investigation -- Business Standard

My Comment:Years of training and the expenditure of billions of dollars .... coupled with scores of insider attacks .... and this is what we are leaving behind?!?!?!

With Supply Shortages Growing Afghan Forces Are Now Being Forced To Eat Boiled Grass

U.S. Army Capt. James Guglielmi, left, and U.S. Army 1st Lt. Aaron Reibel speak with Afghan soldiers during their mission to provide security for a joint U.S. and Afghan forces security meeting in the Chamkani district of Afghanistan's Paktia province, May 4, 2014. Guglielmi is commander of the 10th Mountain Division's 3rd Squadron, 71st Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team. U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Javier Amador

Reduced To Eating Grass, Afghanistan’s Forces Are In Dire Need Of Our Help -- Louise Arbour and Graeme Smith, The Globe and Mail

When Canadian troops were surrounded by insurgents in a desolate part of southern Afghanistan known as Ghorak district in 2007, trapped in the stony desert under a relentless sun, their lives depended on supplies dropped by parachute from transport planes.

Today the situation is even more desperate in Ghorak. The war has grown in ferocity since the departure of Canadian combat troops in 2011. American helicopters stopped bringing medical relief last year. Shipments of food and bullets are no longer drifting out of the sky from the hatches of Canadian CC-130 Hercules aircraft.

Afghan forces are holding the district by themselves, so far, but Taliban roadblocks are causing food shortages. Ghorak’s defenders recently started to eat boiled grass.

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My Comment: These shortages are only going to increase with time.

Afghanistan's Army Prepares For The Day When They Are Left Alone

Afghanistan's Soldiers Prepare For Life On Their Own -- Anna Coren, CNN

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- On a clear morning in Kabul, I'm standing on top of a wind-swept mountain, taking in the beauty around me. In the distance, I can see the snow-capped Hindu Kush mountains towering over the sprawling, dusty capital of four million people in front of me.

The ruins of the King's and Queen's Palaces -- destroyed during the civil war in 1992 -- are within mortar firing range from where I'm standing. This was where Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the militia leader, and other warlords positioned their tanks against the northern alliance firing relentlessly on the city -- a four-year war that would decimate Kabul, claiming tens of thousands of lives.

But Afghanistan has a long history of war and Hekmatyar wasn't the only fighter to have stumbled across this strategic position.

Protected by low-lying hills, the crater directly beneath me at the base of the mountain, has been used by the British, the Soviets, the Americans and now the Afghans to fight their enemies.

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My Comment: This is their fight .... and they will have to step up whether U.S./international forces are there or not.

The Afghan Bomb Squad Is Looking For Recruits

An Afghan army soldier from an improvised explosive devices (IED) school performs a demonstration in Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Afghanistan, October 5, 2013. REUTERS-Stringer

Afghan Bomb Squads In Short Supply As NATO Prepares To Leave -- Reuters

(Reuters) - The Afghan soldiers studying the art of controlled detonations of explosive devices would have to wait until another day for a practical demonstration due to an unspecified security threat.

NATO trainers were ordered to observe a 72-hour lockdown and suspend classes at what was, until this month, the only school in Afghanistan dedicated to countering the most deadly weapon in the Taliban's locker -- the improvised explosive device (IED).

With most of the Western alliance's personnel due to withdraw by the end of next year, the temporary closure foreshadows a much more permanent loss of know-how for Afghan security forces who will be left to fight the Taliban alone.

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My Comment: You have to be a very desperate Afghan to want to work for the Afghan bomb squad.

Afghan Army's Equipment Is Falling Apart

In Afghanistan, Army Struggles To Wage War With Damaged Equipment, Poor Logistics -- Washington Post

WARDAK, Afghanistan — Their fighting season nearly over, members of an embattled Afghan army unit recently inspected their equipment, most of which was in two heaps on their base. There were Humvees shredded by roadside bombs, armored trucks damaged by rocket-propelled grenades and other vehicles in need of repair after hard use in one of the country’s most volatile areas.

The Afghan soldiers could not fix any of them, and replacements hadn’t come. Seventy-five percent of the battalion’s armored vehicles were out of commission. There were so few Humvees that some soldiers walked for 20 hours to get from base to base.

“How can we fight a war like this?” asked Col. Hamidullah, the battalion commander, who like many Afghans uses one name.

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My Comment: This is the Achilles heel of the Afghan Army .... poor logistics and broken down equipment.

Is the Afghan Army Willing To Fight?

U.S. and Afghan soldiers pose for a photograph on former Forward Operating Base Shinwar in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, July 14, 2013. U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Margaret Taylor

Dispatch from Afghanistan: They Don't Want To Fight, Neither Do We -- Carmen Gentile, Defense One

ACHIN DISTRICT, Afghanistan -- It was a mission like so many others I've been on throughout Afghanistan: Assailants unleash rockets, mortars and small arms attacks on U.S. soldiers in a remote corner of Afghanistan that the Taliban and other militants groups call home. The ordnances drop, machine gun fire clatters and then American troops return fire in the direction they think their enemy might be.

On this day I'm in Achin District, in Nangarhar Province, just a short distance from the mountainous border with Pakistan. Earlier that morning, a rocket landed a couple hundred yards from the platoon with whom I'm embedded, creating a giant ball of flames and smoke before a thunderous boom and shock wave. Soldiers scatter and climb into their heavily armored vehicles and discuss their next move over the radio. One captain wants to send American troops to a nearby mud-walled compound where the rocket attack emanated. Others object.

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My Comment: With each passing month the Afghan Army is suffering horrendous casualties .... so I can only assume that many are willing to fight. But can this be sustained .... and can the U.S. military culture on how to fight be adopted by the Afghan Army .... that is something that only time will tell.

Is The Afghan Army Ready To Take Over?

An Afghan National Army soldier practices drills at an outpost in Maiwand District, Kandahar Province, Afghanistan, on January 29, 2013. (Andrew Burton/Reuters)

Afghanistan Is Not Ready To Take Over -- Richard H. P. Sia, The Atlantic

A special inspector general discloses that as U.S. forces head for the exit, the Pentagon has not met its goal for enlarging the Afghan force left behind.

Since the United States first sent troops to Afghanistan in 2001, a signature goal of the war has been to increase the size of Afghan national security forces and give their members the skills to vanquish domestic terrorist groups and other security threats on their own.

But as the Obama administration prepares to pull 34,000 U.S. troops out of the country by February and most of the remaining troops by the end of 2014, estimates of the size of the Afghan force trained to take over this lead security role have suddenly grown fuzzy and possibly unreliable.

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Update: Audit casts doubt on number of Afghan troops U.S. has trained -- McClatchy News

My Comment: After analyzing and covering the Afghan war for almost 11 years .... I have learned that when it comes to Afghanistan nothing ever appears to be what Washington wishes it to be. In short .... our Afghan allies are not even remotely  ready, and this auditor's report is a red flag.

More Doubts On the Afghan Army

Afghan Army Bruised by Long Battle -- Wall Street Journal

KABUL—New details about an ambush on Afghan troops in March and the army's stumbles in the monthlong battle that followed illustrate the challenges Afghanistan faces in taking over security around the country.

Afghan and coalition officials said recently concluded operations in the usually peaceful northeastern province of Badakhshan laid bare a range of problems faced by Afghan security forces throughout the country, from lack of advance planning and communication to inadequate supply and logistics.

What began as a simple resupply mission turned into a prolonged fight to reclaim a remote mountainous district. It also illustrated Afghanistan's reliance on coalition air power: In the final week of the operation, the Afghans had to call for backup from North Atlantic Treaty Organization aircraft—support that won't be available once foreign forces withdraw by the end of next year.

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My Comment: Air support makes a huge difference in combat zones like Afghanistan. But this is the Afghan Achilles heel .... they lack such support.

Afghan Women Head To Battle

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Under Cover Of Darkness, Afghan Women Head To Battle -- NBC 

KABUL, AFGHANISTAN -- Severely outgunned, the battle was going badly. It seemed like certain defeat. Then, from out of the crowd stepped a young girl of around 14. She grabbed the pole from the fallen flag-bearer, held it up, and called out to her brothers-in-arms to fight to the death.

Though she was shot dead, her rallying cry was seen as the turning point of the 1880 Battle of Maiwand; a triumph for the Afghans, and a devastating loss for British forces during the Second Anglo-Afghan War. Her name was Malalai, Afghanistan’s Joan of Arc.

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My Comment: I suspect that for these Afghan women soldiers the "front line" is everywhere .... and probably also within their own home.

The Afghan Army (Photo Gallery)

When the US withdraws its troops from Afghanistan in 2014, many wonder if the country's own forces will be able to hold the line against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Helmand, November 20, 2012. John D McHugh/John D McHugh

Afghanistan: Holding The Line -- Al Jazeera

What are the challenges facing the Afghan army as it prepares to take over responsibility for the country's security?

As the 2014 withdrawal draws closer, and the US-led coalition prepares to hand power over to the Afghanistan National Army (ANA), filmmaker John D McHugh spent nearly a month in Afghanistan looking at the ANA's training in Kabul and in Helmand. What he found was an infantry army ready to fight, but a belief amongst those soldiers that they lack the equipment and logistics to hold the line.

WNU Editor: The photo gallery starts here.

So Much For The U.S. War Strategy In Afghanistan

U.S. Sgt. Maj. of the Army Ray Chandler and International Security Assistance Force U.S. Army Command Sgt. Maj. Thomas Capel depart from Combat Outpost Bari Alai on a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter near Jalalabad, Afghanistan, April 3, 2012. Chandler presented combat infantryman and action badges to soldiers assigned to the 4th Infantry Division's 1st Battalion, 12th Infantry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team, for their successful suppression of an insurgent attack on their outpost. U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Christopher Harper

Broke Afghans Will Cut Their Military — And Obama’s War Plan -- The Danger Room

First the U.S. and its allies super-sized Afghanistan’s Army and police to fight the Taliban. Then they decided that those Afghan troops were their exit strategy. Now they’ve got sticker shock for how much the huge Afghan security sector will cost after they turn over combat duties in 2014 — so the Afghans announced that they’ll cut their own forces, even while they’ll be the only ones fighting the insurgency.

This is nothing short of removing a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s entire Afghanistan strategy. It’s an unforced error, costing over $10 billion, and completely foreseeable. In fact, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld foresaw it.

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My Comment: The reality of not having the money to fight a war is now settling in for both Kabul and Washington. And the Taliban .... who rely on little funding and material support .... are now positioned to win the war

Is Washington's Plan To Keep Building The Afghan Army A Bad Idea?

Afghan commandos sprint to board a U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter during a mission in the Chawkai district in Afghanistan's Kunar province, Feb. 25, 2012. The commando-led mission was to conduct reconnaissance for a future village stability platform where Afghan forces and coalition special operations forces can live and work with villagers. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Clayton Weis

Why Washington's Plan To Keep Building the Afghan Army Is A Bad Idea -- Ann Jones, Mother Jones

Consider the country's history: No Afghan National Army has ever warded off a single foreign enemy or done a lick of good for any Afghan ruler.

Recent weeks have brought yet another sad chance to watch badly laid plans in Afghanistan go haywire. In three separate incidents, allies, most from the Afghan National Army (ANA), allegedly murdered six Americans—two of them officers in the high-security sanctum of Kabul's Interior Ministry. Marine General John R. Allen, commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, even briefly withdrew NATO advisors and trainers from all government ministries for their own protection.

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My Comment: I rarely agree with Mother Jones .... but they are spot on in this post.

The Secret Weapon In The Fight Against The Taliban Is .... Wooden Rifles

Raw: Afghan police recruits are put through their paces by their Western instructors while armed with wooden rifles.

Afghan Police Recruits Forced To Train With Wooden Rifles - After Shooting Themselves In The Foot (Literally) -- Mail Online

They might look a little wooden, but these are the latest police recruits being trained to maintain order in Afghanistan.

The raw trainees have no military experience and are not trusted with real weapons as they are put through their paces by Western instructors.

Recruits to the Afghan National Police (ANP) include farmers, shop owners and students and they are trained by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) - formed by police officers from countries including Britain.

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My Comment: In the Afghan culture, the AK-47 is a part of the furniture .... just as a Persian rug or Afghan tea. If these recruits are shooting themselves in the foot .... sighhhh .... something tells me that these recruits are at the bottom of the food chain in Afghanistan.

U.S. General Cites Ambitious Goals For Training The Afghan Military

New recruits for the Afghan National Army train at the Kabul Military training Centre September 29, 2009. Credit: Reuters/Ahmad Masood/Files

U.S. General Cites Ambitious Goals for Training Afghans -- New York Times

WASHINGTON — The American commander in charge of building up Afghanistan’s security forces said Monday that in the next 15 months he would have to recruit and train 141,000 new soldiers and police officers — more than the current size of the Afghan Army — to meet President Obama’s ambitious goals for getting Afghan forces to fight the war on their own.

The commander, Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, said the large recruiting number was to allow for attrition rates in some units of nearly 50 percent.

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My Comment: OK .... for the next 15 months Afghanistan will need to recruit and train 141,000 new soldiers and police officers .... and all of this with an attrition rate near 50%.

Yeah right ....

Update: If Afghan Troops Can’t Read Cat in the Hat, This War Is Screwed -- The Danger Room