Introduction
This analysis assesses the best way to end a civil war according to four different outcomes: 1. a regime military victory, 2. a rebel military victory, 3. a politically inclusive negotiated settlement, and 4. a politically exclusive negotiated settlement. It found that military victories led to a more stable outcome compared to negotiated settlements. Additionally, different aspects of the civil war can determine whether a rebel or regime victory is more likely. Lastly, politically exclusive negotiated settlements result in the least stable environment, often acting as a trigger to reignite the conflict.
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WNU Editor: Even if the wars end today, it will take hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild these countries. No one is going to invest in these countries knowing to well how fragile and divisive they have become.
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