University of Cambridge
Market Insider: The coronavirus pandemic could cost the global economy a nightmarish $82 trillion over 5 years, a Cambridge study warns
* The global economy could take a hit of some $82 trillion in a worst case scenario from the coronavirus, according to the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge.
* In case of speedy recovery, an "optimistic loss" of $3.3 trillion is likely. But in the extreme event of an economic doomsday scenario, the global economy could lose $82 trillion in damages, the Centre for Risk Studies, part of the university, said.
* The figures are not meant to represent a shrinkage of the global economy, but rather how much potential growth the economy could lose if it slipped into a prolonged depression.
* "The world economy is still in the midst of the 'full stop' described by Daniel Defoe some 300 years ago," Keith Wade, chief economist at UK fund manager Schroders, said in a separate note.
The global economy could be set back by a harrowing $82 trillion in damages related to the coronavirus pandemic over the next five years, according to recent findings by a University of Cambridge department that examines systemic risks.
These cost projections are based on 2019 gross domestic product volumes which stood at $69.2 trillion for the world's 19 leading economies. The contrast, in comparison, is visibly massive.
The Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School determined that the potential toll could range between what it called an "optimistic loss" of $3.3 trillion in case of rapid recovery, and $82 trillion in the event of an economic depression.
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Update: Pandemic could cost global economy $82 trillion in depression scenario (Market Watch)
WNU Editor: The University of Cambridge study is here .... The GDP@Risk over five years from COVID-19 could range from $3.3 trillion to $82 trillion, says the Centre for Risk Studies. As to what is my take. I try to be optimistic but the stats that I have been reading for the past week are beyond horrific. The tourism and travel industry is finished for the next year or two. The hospitality and restaurant industry is definitely kaput, and most restaurants will probably go bust. The entertainment industry will be producing only a fraction of the product that has been produced in the past few years. And for some, like many Broadway shows, will probably close-up. The energy industry, car manufacturers, housing ..... I can spend the next hour listing all the industries that will changed because of this pandemic, and not for the good. But what really scares me is/are the high debt levels that individuals/businesses/and governments are now holding. I saw first hand in Russia in 1992 on what happens when personal/business debt is high and people are out of work. The consequences are terrible. That is why I feel that I am repeating history, but this time in the West. With high unemployment numbers a lot of people will not be able to pay off their debts, as a result we will be seeing bankruptcies and foreclosures later in the year when all of this stimulus money dries up. And then there is the pandemic itself. It is still out there, and it is ravaging Latin America and elsewhere. Bottom line. It is not going away, and if it continues until later next year, maybe even mutating into something more deadly, you can take this to the bank, the worst case depression scenario will become our reality.
2 comments:
Well, all of that is true. But we already saw that even worse: after WW2 all economies in Europe, Asia was not only stopped but also completely destroyed. Today, so far, the economy is taking a big hit, but nothing is destroyed, the people are not dead and the qualification are not missing as it was after WW2.
So, yes we are going into hard time, but as a Schumpeter supporter I think the sustainable companies will survive and many new one will appear. It just take a little while.
you can take this to the bank, the worst case depression scenario will become our reality.
Maybe. I would like top point out that the depression bottomed out a 2nd time in 1937 and 1938. It is called pilot induced oscillation. If we have a depression it is because a bunch of socialist used their media power and misused their legal power to effect one.
This is not a serious disease. Sure it is a disease that is capable of killing 100,000 per year like the flu, but people are not taking it seriously.
Governors of NJ, MI, and IL certainly are not taking not seriously. They are doing everything they tell others what not to do.
Diseases ameliorate themselves. To be a successful a disease has to have descendants in the future. You cannot do that if you are an auto-kill disease. I expect most different strains to have an R naught similar to flu except in blue controlled areas, where I expect it to be much higher. I base on the cholera epidemic of the mid-1990s in South America and on the Munchausen by proxy techniques of blue practitioners.
Munchausen by proxy is real. The governors of MI, PA, NJ and NY sent thousands of COVID carriers to nursing homes. 40% of 50% of deaths are at nursing homes. So much so the Andrew Cuomo has been fudging the statistics.
In my neck of the woods a person in their 50s died. Health officials immediately pointed out that the person had multiple comorbidities so as to calm things. They did not say how many or which ones. Maybe, if relatives put in an obit, you could figure out, who it was. Purpose being to figure out how many or what co- morbidities they had. All they said is that they had multiple co-morbidities.
Why care about multiple co-morbidities? If a person is obese, diabetic and high blood pressure any respiratory infection is a serious thing that could cause acute respiratory distress (ARD) syndrome. What is the point. The point is that we should stop treating COIVID 19 like disease X and a get back to basic health maintenance.
Unless COVID 19 was CRISPR'd in a Wuhan lab or the blogger is a Russian ______.
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