Will Egypt And Turkey Go To War Over Libya?

Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) forces in Tripoli, Libya on 27 March 2020 [Amru Salahuddien/Anadolu Agency]

OilPrice.com: Libya Is On The Brink Of A Major Military Conflict

The broader geopolitical situation in which Libya finds itself is another reason for analysts to temper optimism. UN chief Guterres stated that foreign interference in Libya has reached ‘unprecedented levels,’ without directly stating the main culprits. It is looking increasingly likely that we will see a military operation by GNA forces, backed by Turkey, on the Sirte region. Any military action in the Sirte region would be a direct danger to NOC’s future plans, as oil production and exports in the region would likely be halted. The GNA and Turkish officials have openly stated that they are preparing a move against Sirte, currently in the hands of LNA forces, to regain control of the area’s strategic oil reserves. Indirectly Turkey has stated that it wants to regain power over the Sirte area in order to deliver a major blow to Haftar’s LNA and its backers, Russia, UAE, and Egypt. The UN is currently trying in vain to set up a possible political solution for the crisis, but the developments on the ground suggest that there is no political will for such a deal at the moment.

As things stand, two major external forces are on track to clash in a military conflict within Libya. Turkish forces have recently put their full backing behind the GNA, while Egypt has promised the protect Haftar’s forces. Egyptian President Sisi has stated that any violation of Sirte and Al-Jufra will result in direct intervention from the Egyptian military as per international norms.

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WNU Editor: Some believe there will be no war .... The unlikely war between Egypt and Turkey in Libya (Middle East Monitor). But if Egypt does ener into the Libyan war, these are its military options .... Egypt’s Military Limitations: Cairo’s Options to Defend Eastern Libya (Foreign Policy Research Institute).