Monday, August 17, 2020

CNN Poll: In 15 Crucial Battleground States Biden Has A 1-Point Lead Over Trump At 49%-48%

In the 15 crucial battleground states, the gap had closed even further with Biden given just a 1-point lead over Trump at 49%-48%

Daily Mail: Trump has narrowed the gap with Biden with the Democratic challenger's lead shrinking to just one point in 15 key election battleground states and four points nationally, poll shows

* A CNN survey found that registered voters are backing Biden 50%-46%
* Indicates that President Trump is narrowing the gap with his political rival
* In comparison, Trump was trailing behind Biden by 14 points in June
* The poll comes ahead of the two parties' major political conventions

A new poll has found that Donald Trump has narrowed the gap with his political rival, Joe Biden.

The CNN survey, carried out from August 12-15, found that Democratic candidate Joe Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris had a national 4-point advantage over Trump and Vice President Mike Pence at 50%-46%.

The 4-point advantage given to the Democrats was on the cusp of the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

However two other polls - an ABC News / Washington Post poll published Monday and an NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll on Sunday - offered significantly different results. ABC put Biden 12 points ahead and NBC put him nine points clear.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Here are three recent poll results:

* CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high (CNN)
* Biden Leads Trump, 50% to 41%, in Poll Ahead of Party Conventions (WSJ)
* Election advantage stays with Biden; enthusiasm deficit eases, but remains: POLL (ABC News)

According to the sample size that CNN used, Democrats were sampled 10% more than Republicans .... Biden/Harris Voters(N=499), Trump/Pence Voters(N=452) (bottom of page two from this poll). 10% more?!?!?!?. Even with this oversampling of Democrats Biden only polled 4% more nationally and 1% more at critical battleground states?!?!?! Bottom line. The real poll number is far more positive for President Trump than what CNN is reporting.

The WSJ poll that says Biden leads Trump by 9% using a sample size of 900 (see here). It does not break down the party preference that they used in their polling. What's my take. A sample size of 900 is ridiculously small too me. And not breaking down by party preference on who they polled is a big red flag for me.

The ABC poll shows Biden leading by 12%. In their sample size Republicans are 26% of the total. Republicans traditionally represent about 36% of the voting public during US Presidential elections. Again. We have another poll where the sample size is small, and Republicans are significantly underrepresented.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


I ignore these silly exercises now.

A nation of hundreds of millions and the polls contact hundreds? Not to mention the the veracity of some of the poll takers. CNN!!!