Reuters
Rachel Bucchino, National Interest: Is Joe Biden Really Ahead in the Polls?
The margin between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is also narrower across the fifteen battleground states, with Biden having 49 percent of support, while Trump holds 48 percent. But which poll can you trust?
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump has tightened, according to a new poll, just after the former vice president announced Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as his running mate last week.
In a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, 50 percent of registered voters support the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46 percent back Trump-Pence—a gap that stands right at the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Compared to June, poll voters who have gravitated towards the Trump-Pence ticket are men, those between the ages of thirty-five and sixty-four and independents.
The margin between Biden and Trump is also narrower across the fifteen battleground states, with Biden having 49 percent of support, while Trump holds 48 percent.
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WNU Editor: The above author does not point out how Republicans are under-sampled in these polls as I had explained here .... CNN Poll: In 15 Crucial Battleground States Biden Has A 1-Point Lead Over Trump At 49%-48%. But the above post is correct about this ....
.... Pew Research Center also added “the real margin of error is often about double the one reported” as “there are three other, equally important sources of error in polling: nonresponse, coverage error (where not all the target population has a chance of being sampled) and mismeasurement.”
What's my read of these polls. We are repeating the 2016 US Presidential when it comes to polls. The only difference now is that they are using a smaller Republican sample. My gut is also telling me that a lot of people do not want to tell strangers (i.e. pollsters) on who they are going to vote this year. And considering the political climate that is out there right now. Who would blame them.
7 comments:
Wnu, l agree, if trump doesn't wear the blame for the current economic and social woes by an irrational public then he will smash it in
In a sane world this election would be a 37 state landslide for Trump.
a world with you in it can never be a sane world
8:23,
A world with you in it can never be a non-trolling or honest world.
Well the Democrat "strategy" appears to be as follows: 1.) Overhype Coronavirus using it to wreck the economy, destroy people's lives, while killing many of them due to "collateral damage." Poverty and depression kill or at least shorten lives. 2.) The economy and the American people proved more resilient than initially thought so send rioters//looters to terrorize people, kill them and maim them, and destroy their livelihoods where and when possible. 3.) Foment racial conflict creating even more chaos. 4.) Try and pin the blame for the whole thing on Trump. So essentially I materially agree with Fazman and Russ.
Presumably Trump and Biden have private polling that attempts to tell them and their teams what voters are actually thinking. With that said POTUS appears to me to behaving like a man who thinks he is going to win big. 1.) He recently announced a peace agreement between Israel and the EU. 2.) A defense agreement with Poland was announced recently. While I'm sure these initiatives have been being pursued for quite some time, none of these are going to impact the election in a positive way and may actually undermine POTUS as voters are likely to view focusing on these issues as a distraction from the domestic issues that really concern them and their families. As such, it seems that if POTUS were concerned about winning reelection he and his team would not focus on issues like this until after they have comfortably won reelection. Essentially POTUS seems to me to be behaving as someone who feels certain of victory.
I meant between Israel and the UAE, I apologize for the typo.
If Trump lose it will a victory for Biden.
If Trump win it will be a Putin victory and not because Biden lose.
No matter what happens, Trump will be always in the bad side.
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