With pre-election jitters set to dominate markets, the other highlights include the ECB and BoJ meetings on Thursday. With regards to the former, DB's Jim Reid writes that while the bank's European economists expect the policy stance to be left unchanged, they do expect the ECB to warn of growing downside risks amid an already weak outlook for inflation, which will open the door to an easing of policy in December. By then, there’ll be more information on the status of the pandemic, and the ECB staff will have updated their macroeconomic projections, including the publication of the first estimates for growth and inflation for 2023. For the BoJ, consensus expects no policy stance change in light of the slow-but steady economic recovery and stable exchange rate.
Elsewhere, datawise next week we’ll get a first look at Q3 GDP in the US and Europe and given the record contractions seen in Q2, it’s quite possible that the Q3 numbers will be among the best ever quarterly performances since records began. Economists forecast an eye watering +33.8% as an example which, if realized, would be by far the strongest quarterly growth number since comparative data starts back in the 1940s.
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WNU Editor: Even though the numbers that will be posted will still be below pre-pandemic levels, expect President Trump to tout these numbers till election day.
7 comments:
The numbers would be higher except that Blue State governors have kept their states lockdown as much as possible to wage aggressive war. That would make those governors like Cuomo and Newsome war criminals.
Medieval warlords use to burn villages and kill peasant of rival warlords. It was either to to force the other warlords to come out and fight or so impoverish him that after a time he would be defeated, because his realm was an economic wreck incapable of supporting him.
The warlord was not mad at the peasants, but killed them just the same.
Newsome and Cuomo are not mad at the modern day peasants, but they realize that bad economic numbers hurt Trump. It hurts Trump more than them, because they have a prostitute press willing to shill for them.
The numbers would be just as good as before the the pandemics start but for the Blue State Medieval Warlords.
The economy has thus far recovered far faster than I or pretty much anyone else who follows this would have been expected. At least in the US, the tax cuts and regulatory reforms that Trump pushed through have been a huge factor. Also, the resilience of the American people has been absolutely amazing. I think it helped to have a leader in Trump who remained relatively calm and collected while others were acting hysterically.
The situation is still very precarious. The specter of more lockdowns loom like a dark cloud over things. It would be helpful if leadership would take the prospect of more lockdowns completely off the table. Recently the WHO did suggest that perhaps the lockdowns have/had negative utility and recently presidents Trump and Macron of France have stated that we will have to learn to live with this virus. While I found it somewhat interesting that Trump was demonized when he pointed the obvious out here and the critics have been silent in regards to Macron, it does suggest that leadership is finally starting to get it and they may be less willing to resort to lockdowns in the future which should help the confidence of consumers and business decision makers.
Anon (11:29)
Well said. It appears they have calculated that a bad economic situation helps them politically and are acting accordingly. It also seems that the less aggressively a state enforced "lockdowns" is correlated with how quickly the economy is coming back. We in TX endured a tough situation with the lockdowns but not a rough as some others hence our economy is slowly coming back. The virus is definitely a problem. The lockdowns are an even bigger problem. Neither China or anyone else ordered the US government to implement such a policy of lockdowns.
I would say the learning curve for dealing with the virus is not a steep as initially. Then there are the coumo types.
One aspect of the situation is the concept of herd immunity that was a goal and would allow us to get going again. This idea appears to be false.
12:12
Explain Sweden, bitch.
Acrualky "the concept of herd immunity" was never seriously explored by our "leadership." This is the way a pathogen is usually ultimately contained. Perhaps if this is a bio weapon the normal approach doesn't apply. Even cult leader Fauci doesn't think this is a bio weapon.
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