This is the most important chart of the 2020 election:
* Trump starts with a less-stable base
* But 216 of 535 Electoral College votes are too close to call
* Let that sink in: 40% of Electoral College votes appear too close to conclusively call as of today
* Even if we assume that states with only a 2% or greater spread are set, 66 Electoral College votes are up-for-grabs
* 2% spread is well within margins of error – it’s really a toss-up
* Sentiment analysis suggests Biden may squeak by
* But swing states are really toss-ups and targeted action can drastically change this race
Our methodology is very different from a traditional pollster:
* We utilize our proprietary consumer demand sentiment technology to elucidate trends in specific interests, much as we would measure brand activity
* In 2016 our models suggested an 80% chance that Donald Trump would win the general election versus Hillary Clinton
* Our models currently predict a much tighter race than in 2020
* However, the spreads are tighter in key states and public opinion is far more volatile in 2020 than in 2016
Read more ....
WNU Editor: I like their methodology. It is very different from how polls are being done today. They gave Donald Trump an 80% probability of winning in 2016, and in this election cycle they are predicting a very tight race. These results however are already out of date. They are from last week, and IMHO a lot has changed on the ground since then (i.e. President Trump's performance in the debate, Hunter Biden, etc.).
15 comments:
WNU,
This sums up the FBI corruption very well.
How corrupt is FBI director Wray? Let me count the ways
We also have pecuniary corruption.
Dr. Howard Krein, Joe Biden’s Son In Law, Is ‘Consulting Biden’ and Hoping to Make Millions on Coronavirus
We have electioneering and payment in kind to political campaigns.
A Large Danish Study on Mask Wearing Is Being Delayed by Publishers of Major Medical Journals – Therefore Preventing the Results from Being Made Public
What needs to be done is to examine and/or criticize the data set and methodology, if necessary. Valid reason should be given.
Instead we are given a stone wall, because it might throw an election. They are so smart they might cause a war. We are talking about really bright people here out of their depth.
The only way Trump might lose is massive election fraud!
no incumbent president has ever lost when getting over 75% of its primary votes Trump has gotten95% of his primary votes 🤡 zero hedge a bunch of dummies 😝
the Stony Brook professor who predicted Trump's victory last time has given Trump a 91% chance to win zero hedge😜 go play with yourself 😎
ANOTHER TRUMP RECORD: Lowest Black Imprisonment Rate Since ’95 When Joe Biden’s Crime Bill Kicked In
President Trump privately told donors this past week that it will be “very tough” for Republicans to keep control of the Senate in the upcoming election because some of the party’s senators are candidates he cannot support.
“I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough,” Trump said at a fundraiser Thursday at the Nashville Marriott, according to an attendee. “There are a couple senators I can’t really get involved in. I just can’t do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can’t help some of them. I don’t want to help some of them.”
The attendee shared the president’s words on the condition of anonymity as the event was a closed-door gathering. It was held before the last presidential debate between Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.
The president — in a sentiment not shared by many of his party’s top officials and strategists — said he instead thinks the Republicans “are going to take back the House.” And many strategists involved in Senate races say the party’s chances at keeping the chamber are undermined by the president’s unscripted, divisive rhetoric and his low poll numbers in key states.
Senate Republicans have known for days that the probability of the party losing control of the upper chamber has increased drastically, with even Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) pegging his bid to keep power as “50-50” in a recent radio interview. Some strategists say that between Trump’s fumbled response to the pandemic, which has left at least 224,000 Americans dead, his disastrous first debate performance, and the White House’s rash of coronavirus infections, the battlefield continues to shift in favor of the Democrats — and that Trump has not always been helpful.
Amy Coney Barrett has some ‘splainin’ to do on white racism
"Violent crime in D.C. is a black thing.
How about all the black violence against commuters on the D.C. Metro? My favorite example is when a group of black people almost killed the husband of an NPR executive while his wife waited to greet him at the station.
That story never made it to NPR. But every hour of every day NPR reminds of us relentless black victimization, relentless white racism, all the time, everywhere that explains everything.
They call that Critical Race Theory."
Decorated Marine attacked by group of teens outside D.C. McDonald's
"How about the Marine so heroic that a statue of him rescuing a comrade under fire in Iraq greets every new recruit in Parris Island and Camp Pendleton?
He was waiting in line for a hamburger in McDonald’s just a few blocks from the White House when a large group of fellas and lovely ladies started taunting him about Black Lives Matter. Outside, a few minutes later, they beat him within an inch of his life -- all on high tech video.
When the Washington Post got around to reporting the story weeks later, dozens and dozens of Post readers" (i.r. Those who DROOL.) "said the Marine must have said something racist to them. After all, black people do not just go around attacking white people for no reason whatsoever.
But that is exactly what happened there -- and it is hardly an isolated event."
The Trump Organization reregistered the domain name TrumpTowerMoscow.com this June, internet records show, suggesting that contrary to President Trump's claims, the company has not necessarily abandoned its pursuit of the lucrative real estate deal that figured prominently in multiple investigations into his connections with Russia.
The Trump Organization has re-upped the domain every year of his presidency. This year it renewed its ownership on June 9, under a company called DTTM Operations, which Trump's financial disclosures show manages more than 100 company trademarks. DTTM Operations appears now to have registered a total of more than 3,000 domains, according to a whois search, including renewals for TrumpRussia.com, TrumpTowerLondon.com and DonaldTrumpSucks.com — 2,000 more than reported in 2017.
The domain was first registered in 2008, according to internet "whois" lookups, but the Trump Organization was not the first buyer. Longtime Trump associate Felix Sater, a Russian-born businessman whose efforts to build the Moscow tower date back to the early 2000s, told Salon that he turned ownership of the domain over to the Trump Organization in 2015, when Trump signed a letter of intent to develop the project.
The domain was first reported in early July 2017, about two months before the Washington Post's bombshell report that during the 2016 presidential campaign, the Trump Organization had tried to strike a deal with Russian developers to build the luxury hotel and condo tower. A series of BuzzFeed News reports starting the next year illustrated the significant progress the project had made and the extent of Donald Trump's involvement.
Wray (FBI) is Corrupt? who appointed him? Who keeps him at his job?drain the swamp etc?
Alright, don't give it up!
Unless Trump went outside the agency, Wray or the next 5 or 10 senior people are just as corrupt as Comey. Who would have thought that? We thought it was a few bad apples, a small clique.
Trump went with Republican, Democrat, and RINO recommendations. You can't give a SCOTUS type vetting/anal exam for every appointed position. There is not time for it.
The reason Wray is still there is because while Trump is conducting official duties, looking into other departments and agencies and campaigning, he is not aware immediately when a dishonest person like Wray is dragging his feet and obfuscating.
The initial Wray excuses seemed reasonable. He lied to the president saying the declassificaiotn process takes a few weeks. A few weeks go by and nothing. But the president has other duties, a few more weeks go by. Wray gives another excuse, rinse & repeat and Wray has dragged it out 2 or 3 months before Trump is sure that Wray is lying and an good son of a bitch.
Trump is not going to fire him before the election,. So Wray is hoping that his obstruction costs Trump the elections (helps anyway) and that grateful Democrats will reward him.
Minds have been changed. Many Americans believe that GS level FBI agents are good, but the SE FBI agents are dirt. That is why you are hearing calls now for the FBI to be disbanded. You didn't hear that so much before Memorial Day. The FBI can be disbanded and DHS can pick up the slack. GS level FBI agents can be screened and apply for employment.
There are so many bad agents in the barrel that we will have to do a Dodge-Romig sampling plan or 100% inspection.
Parrot you thought you were cute copying and pasting at 6:45 and posting you 'zinger' at 6:47.
Did you wife help you with that zinger? Usually you post squat in your own words. Supposedly well read, well educated, and much experience and yet you use so few of your own words. Almost like you don't know much and have to resort to parroting.
50% or 60+ people will be very upset if Trump loses to the Deep State. June will look like a picnic compared to what is coming. I'm just going to sit back with popcorn.
Have an inverter for your microwave oven?
Back up generator. No need for an inverter.
"Biden is Wrong: U.S. Didn’t Have a Good Relationship With Hitler — But the New York Times Did"
And liberals love the New York Times.
Hmmm....
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