My Prediction For Tonight's U.S. Elections

WNU Editor: Even though I do not live in the U.S., I have never had problems to predict US election results. I am a political junkie, and for 30 years I have been a close follower of US politics and elections.  But this has been a tough election cycle to predict. The pandemic has changed everything, making what was a certain Trump re-election to a contest where many Americans are looking for an alternative direction. Coupled this with the overwhelmingly negative main stream media coverage of President Trump, tech and social media companies suppressing negative stories of Joe Biden, a two to three times advantage for Joe Biden on campaign spending, and the Washington establishment's overwhelmingly support for Joe Biden .... the obstacles for President Trump to be re-elected look to be insurmountable. It is hard to win when the contest is not on a level playing field. 

On the flip side everyone I know is confident that President Trump will be re-elected for a second term. The enthusiasm for this political leader is something that I have never seen in my lifetime. The tea-party rallies ten years ago were enormous, but this is something entirely different. To hear tens of thousands of supporters in a rally scream that they love this President never happens in politics. Its usually the other way around .... they are screaming that they hate you. The eagerness of Trump supporters to vote for him is very real, which is why I do not share the view that most of these early voters are for Biden. The shy and hidden Trump voter is real. There are tens of millions of them. They all want to vote, and many have voted. 

What is also a big sign for me on what to expect tonight is the stock market. They were up yesterday and they are up big-time today. That does not reflect a Biden victory, but a continuation of Trump policies. The people with money have already made their decision on what will happen tonight. 

The social unrest/riots/looting will play a factor in the cities that have been impacted. But I think the deciding factor on who will win this election revolves around voter's views towards the pandemic. Lets face it. The U.S. is in the middle of a massive crisis. The pandemic and its economic impact has been devastating. And it is getting worse. Everyone's reactions towards it has been different, and I am sure it will spill over on how they will vote. In Canada where I live, there has been three provincial elections in the past two months where the pandemic was the number one issue. The governing parties all won re-election with larger majorities. Canadians do not want to change governments in the middle of a crisis. Will the same thing happen in the US? Do Americans have the habit of changing their leaders in the middle of a massive crisis? The answer is no. 

President Trump will be re-elected tonight. I can easily see the Republicans losing two to three senators tonight. The House of Representatives will remain in Democrat hands. 

Update: I said to myself after posting the above that if I am wrong. That Democrat efforts to politicize the Covid-19 pandemic and blame it on Trump have worked. That President Trump is defeated tonight. I will have to acknowledge that the U.S. electorate has made the decision to go down a direction that will eventually change the U.S. that I have known in my lifetime. 

Being one who has experienced such changes personally in my life (i.e. the collapse of the Soviet Union), I can say with confidence that it is not going to be an easy ride. My immediate concern will be on the economy under a Biden administration, and this commentary that I read early today is correct on what to expect in 2021.... Under Biden the "economy slows down under pressure of massive taxes, and Covid is treated with lockdowns. Its a joke. Should be the opposite of that."

Update 23:00 EST: I was not wrong. President Trump will be re-elected President of the United States.