The Cost To Modernize U.S. Nuclear Forces Have Risen Dramatically

An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during an operational test Oct. 29, 2020, at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. U.S. Air Force / Tech. Sgt. Patrick Harrower

"Nuclear forces account for roughly 7 percent of the total 10-year cost of the plans for national defense outlined in [2021]..[T]hat percentage is projected to rise from ~6 percent in 2021 to ~8.5 percent in 2030." Or "about one percentage point higher" than CBO projected in 2019

— Kingston Reif (@KingstonAReif) May 24, 2021

"If the full costs of B-52 and B-21 bombers were included, the total costs of nuclear forces, with cost growth, would be $711 billion."

— Kingston Reif (@KingstonAReif) May 24, 2021

Here's a comparison of the estimate of the cost of nuclear forces in 2021 from CBO's 2017, 2019, and 2021 biennial updates. Notice a trend?

2017: $34.1 billion (2021 proj.)
2019: $38.7 billion (2021 proj.)
2021: $42.1 billion

— Kingston Reif (@KingstonAReif) May 24, 2021

Defense One: Estimated Cost of US Nuclear Modernization Jumps During More Expensive Phase  

The Congressional Budget Office’s latest estimate puts the next decade’s price tag at $634 billion as some lawmakers try to bring it back down. 

The next decade of work to replace America’s nuclear bombers, missile submarines, and ICBMs will cost roughly $35 billion more than expected, about a 7 percent jump, the Congressional Budget Office said in a new report. 

The report updates the 10-year projected cost of the Pentagon’s nuclear modernization plan. In 2019, the CBO estimated that the work would cost $494 billion through 2028. The new report, which covers the years 2021 to 2030, puts the cost at $634 billion. About half of the $140 billion difference reflects the planned shift from research and development to the more expensive production phase. Another quarter of the difference reflects anticipated higher inflation.  

Read more .... 

Update #1: Nonpartisan budget report says future nuke costs are rising (AP) 

Update #2: CBO: US nuclear arsenal to cost $634B over 10 years (The Hill) 

WNU Editor: The critics are piling on .... 500,000,000,000 reasons to scrutinize the US plan for nuclear weapons (Kingston Reif and Mandy Smithberger, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists). 

The CBO report is here .... Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2021 to 2030 (CBO).