Hal Brands, AEI/Bloomberg: Win or lose, US war against China or Russia won’t be short
The U.S. may be able to repulse an assault on Taiwan or the Baltics. But what comes next?
“For every thousand pages published on the causes of wars,” wrote the scholar Geoffrey Blainey half a century ago, “there is less than one page on the causes of peace.” A modified version of Blainey’s lament might usefully guide U.S. military planning today.
The Pentagon is getting serious about prevailing in the opening stages of a war with China or Russia. But wars between great powers rarely end after the opening salvo. The U.S. needs to be preparing for big, grinding conflicts that could drag on for months or years — and thinking as much about how those wars will end as how they might begin.
The scenarios for a war against China or Russia are easily imaginable. Beijing tries to invade Taiwan or make it surrender through bombardment and blockade. Chinese forces strike U.S. allies, such as Japan or the Philippines, in Asia’s inner seas. Russia launches a Baltic blitz against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s most exposed members.
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WNU Editor: A war between Russia and the U.S. will be a short one because nuclear weapons will be used very quickly. A U.S. = China war will be a war of attrition.
13 comments:
"A war between Russia and the U.S. will be a short one because nuclear weapons will be used very quickly."
You are saying Russia will use nuclear weapons first against NATO? Seems like suicide to me.
No matter nuclear or not, a war will be longer than the WWII.
I just have a hard time believing a nuclear war - under just about any circumstances - would occur between Russia and the US. If anything, the Chinese seem to be on a much more aggressive nuke hair-trigger.
And the current politics in the US would prevent any moves to achieve anything resembling a victory.
RussInSoCal,
I agree with you. Just the thinking that a nuclear war is a short one is wrong. That said, China will be more likely for a nuclear war is driven by its huge population which will be more survivable.
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Exactly, why WNU constantly says MAD doctrine no longer applies is beyond me
Has Xi ever put his pants on backward?
No. Xi makes others put their pants on backwards.
War won't happen all the city's will fall after big earth quake
No need 4 war u fools
But big hunger no food no trade no money no gas no no no life jus 666 death and hell on earth thanks fools
We are at war, its a hybrid war with maybe areas of operation. The cost of human life is higher for some then others, its really a gentalmans game of multiple layered chess.
The war would be long and would span hundreads of years, with periodic nuclear launches. Sensors go down, targeting systems are lost, manufactoring and logistics, mostly we blow the entire load, such when cruise missiles landed in a Syrian airfield after chemical weapons alligations. Even now we speak having to endure a potential virological attack on the world.
Once you start wiping entire nations from the face of a planet, the remaining survivors will not act so kindly. Missions will still be conducted and we will enter a total war, no where will be spared from rules of engangment.
Before something like that ever happens we will have to endure huge leadups in all realms of life. War touches everything as lifes begin to be lost, everything we say and do is connected to that of war. But ultimately we are multiplying like crazy and have always used war in our history. With medical, we now live longer then ever, are we at a tipping point of massive recession.
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