The Coming Economic, Social, And Humanitarian Crisis In Afghanistan Will Be The Worst That The World Has Seen In Decades

People wait to cross into Afghanistan, at the Friendship Gate crossing point at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border town of Chaman, Pakistan August 13, 2021. REUTERS/Saeed Ali Achakzai 

 VOA: Hunger Grips Millions as Afghanistan Falls to Taliban Insurgents 

GENEVA - The World Food Program is warning of a dramatic rise in the number of hungry people in Afghanistan as fighting and displacement in the war-torn country intensify. 

A United Nations assessment of the food security and nutrition situation in Afghanistan finds one in three Afghans face acute food insecurity. That means an estimated 14 million people in the war-torn country are barely able to meet their daily minimum food needs. 

Because of the dire situation, the World Food Program says malnutrition levels are soaring, and some 2 million children need nutrition treatment to survive. 

WFP spokesman Tomson Phiri says the Afghan people are facing both an artificial and natural disaster, rendering them unable to feed their families. 

He says a poor harvest is projected as the country has been hit by a second drought in four years.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: Here is a good overview of the Afghan economy .... What next for Afghanistan's economy? (Andrew Walker, BBC World Service). 

I did the math. 

22% of the Afghan economy is dependent on foreign aid. It is safe to say that most of that aid has now evaporated. 

Foreign investment will no longer happen. I expect sanctions will be imposed within a month or two (when all foreign nationals are out of the country). The Chinese are talking about investing in Afghanistan. I have to see it to believe it.

Before the collapse there were 116,000 Afghan police/border guards/and other law enforcement officers (link here). It is safe to say that they are now out of a job. 

300,000 Afghan soldiers. They are now unemployed, with many of them now in hiding. 

Before the collapse there were about 350,000 Afghan government employees in administration. The cleaning staff will probably be permitted to return, but despite Taliban assurances that everyone is safe, my gut tells me that most government employees will not return to work. 

I am reading reports that medical personnel throughout the country are being forced to go back to work. Ditto for contractors who maintain the country's infrastructure. Forcing and threatening people to work is not the best way to maintain your economy. 

The Taliban were asked today if the country's financial and banking system will be safe under their rule. The fact that such a question was even asked is a red flag to everyone that your money is no longer safe in Afghanistan right now. 

Agricultural production, that involves approximately 60% of the country's workforce, is in a shambles because of the war, a drought, and Covid. There is now a very real possibility of famine in some parts of the country during the winter months. 

22% of the workforce is made-up of women. Their future is definitely in doubt. 

Bottom line. 

I see an economic contraction that will not only cripple the country for years to come, but it will generate a social and humanitarian crisis that will shock many. 

Afghanistan was a troubled country even in the best of times, but I predict they will be classified as a failed state within a year.

As I said. I did the math.