With The Fall Of Afghanistan, China Is Exploiting The American Defeat

Chinese President Xi Jinping's Communist propaganda has been hammering Joe Biden for his disastrous retreat from Afghanistan 

Gordon G. Chang, The Hill: After Kabul, China exploits perceptions of American weakness 

“If the U.S. cannot even secure a victory in a rivalry with small countries, how much better could it do in a major power game with China?” asked the Communist Party’s Global Times on Monday, hours after the Taliban captured Kabul. The semi-official tabloid also stated this, referring to America: “It cannot win a war anymore.” 

China’s regime this year has highlighted themes intended to intimidate others into submission, and Beijing doubled down on this approach in the wake of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. The risk is that Beijing will now press the advantage, taking on what it says is a weak America.  

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WNU Editor: China has definitely escalated its threats lately .... China vows to 'crush' any US troops on Taiwan 'by force' and conducts live fire naval exercises in South China Sea after Biden abandoned Afghanistan (Daily Mail). And for Taiwan, they do need to be concerned .... If You Live In Taiwan, It's Time To Worry (Zero Hedge/Epoch Times). 

So what is next? 

China (like everyone else) was caught by surprised on how quick the US decided to fold in Afghanistan, and even more so on how quick the Taliban were able to conquer the country. 

The fact that the Taliban did this under the watchful eyes of the U.S. and its allies who were frozen on what to do next has not been ignored by Chinese President Xi. 

Because of this quick defeat, China is now re-evaluating U.S. military capability, U.S. red lines in Asia, U.S. political will, U.S. economic strength, and U.S. relations with its allies in the region. 

In the past few days I have noticed in Chinese media that some conclusions are already being drawn by Beijing. 

Here is the list.

(1) The U.S. military is not as formidable as advertised. 

(2) The U.S. intelligence community completely dropped the ball on picking up Taliban planning and preparedness to launch an offensive when President Biden made it official that U.S. forces will leave Afghanistan on September 11, 2021. 

(3) The U.S. did not consult its allies in Afghanistan when President Biden's final decision was made to withdraw. From Beijing's perspective this means that U.S. - NATO ties are not as deep and committed when it comes to coordinating military operations. 

4) The U.S. is led by a President who appears to not have the capacity to handle a major crisis. I know my Chinese friends and contacts were shocked that even with tens of thousands of Americans trapped in Afghanistan, President Biden made the decision to go back on his vacation after he had made his Afghanistan statement on Monday. Those optics may not mean much to many in the U.S., but overseas this signals to everyone that if the U.S. does not care about its own citizens, they will certainly not care about a country like Taiwan. 

So what is my prediction. 

The Winter Olympics in Beijing are 6 months away. China will increase its hostile rhetoric and military exercises against Taiwan, but not to the point that it will cause a crisis. The Games are important for Chinese internal propaganda. 

After the Olympics, I expect China will start to put a real squeeze on Taiwan, and they will see how the U.S. is going to respond.

Bottom line. It is going to be a very tense 2022 in Asia.