Red Square decorated for Christmas and New Year celebrations in Moscow. Pavel Golovkin/AP
Politico: Putin is Threatening a War. Are Russians Willing to Fight It?
Russians largely believe Putin is right about Ukraine and NATO. But it’s not clear whether they are willing to go to war.
MOSCOW — In the center of Moscow, right under the Kremlin’s walls, Russians are still celebrating their long winter holidays. Red Square’s cobblestoned expanse has been transformed into a holiday festival overflowing with revelers.
There’s an ice rink and carnival rides. Lines for mulled wine and sugary doughnuts wind through the crowd. As small children spin in colorful teacups, nostalgic Soviet songs blare over the ride’s speakers, hinting at a sentimentalized past those youngsters will never get to experience.
Thousands of miles away, Russian officials are sitting down for tense, high-profile talks with the U.S. and its NATO allies this week, as Moscow demands security guarantees and the West challenges Russia on its military buildup near the Ukrainian border. But here in Red Square, the prospect of war seems distant and unlikely.
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WNU Editor: I do not agree with the above author's premise that Putin wants war.
And more to the point ... who wants a war?
But if a war does break between Russia and Ukraine and/or the West, you can take this to the bank, almost everyone in Russia will be willing to fight.
4 comments:
WNU,
Did the Russians want to take Crimea? I am not so sure. Well, we'll see.
When Khrushchev included Crimea into Ukraine the debate started. But if the chaos that enveloped Ukraine in 2014 did not happen, there would be no war in Ukraine, and Crimea will still be a part of Ukraine.
Ah yes, it's Ukraine's fault that they lost Crimea!
- WNU Editor
I'm pretty sure if you had asked the Russian people in 2013 if they should invade Ukraine to conquer Crimea and the Donbas, the answer would have been a resounding "no." But Putin did it anyway when circumstances proved amiable to it. And after it happened, the Russian people were fine with the results. And Putin denied invading Ukraine even while his "little green men" were all over Crimea - so he's a liar and can't be trusted when he says he doesn't want to invade.
Putin is predatory and opportunistic. If countries seem strong and willing to stand up, Putin usually limits his aggression. If a country is weak and divided, he becomes more aggressive to achieve his ends. Putin has a strong concept of the risk/reward ratio.
So the temporary chaos after the Maidan revolution was a window of opportunity for Putin that paid off. He was able to conquer Crimea for a very low price. The continued weakness of Kiev and the weak response by the US and Europe to it encouraged him to attempt to conquer all of "Novorossiya". That failed mainly because ordinary Ukrainians, now alarmed by the Crimean conquest, stopped Putin's agents. Only in the Donbas, where Putin could reinforce his agents with Russian military, was Putin able to hold onto something. And even then, the Ukrainians would have retaken everything until Putin escalated things even further by artillery and air strikes conducted by Russian forces across the border. Hence the current stalemate.
The question is what is the situation now? Putin sees the US is retreating. It abandoned Afghanistan. And Biden is obviously in the stages of senile dementia. The world is paralyzed dealing with Covid. This seems to present Putin with another window of opportunity. But there's still a high risk it could backfire spectacularly. This is why Putin is trying to push NATO into making concessions. If they do, it means the risk is reduced, and he can be more aggressive to achieve his ends.
Which is not protecting the Russian speaking minority in Ukraine - it is to suborn and dominate Ukraine so it becomes a Russian puppet or satellite, or to grab as much of Ukraine as he can (hopefully leaving Ukraine a weak and defenseless rump state). Putin is flexible in his end goals. If he can't achieve one goal, he has fallback goals. He is also flexible in his means. He would prefer other means that outright invasion, but he's also fine if it comes to that.
The question is where are we? Is this Hitler reoccupies the Rhineland, which was based on a bluff? Is this Hitler invading Austria only when Mussolini gave him the OK to do so? Is this Hitler demanding the Sudetenland, which if the West refused and stood firm might have prevented war? Or is Putin's threats now at the stage when Hitler was invading Poland, and all this talk is merely "Why Die For Danzig" propaganda because the invasion is going to happen?
Chris
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