Russian Commander Sergey Surovikin Comments On What Is Next In The Ukraine War

Image: Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik

“I don't want to sacrifice any more Russian soldiers in a guerrilla war against hordes of fanatics armed by NATO. We have enough forces and technical means to bring Ukraine to complete surrender" - Sergey Surovikin

— John Pulmanen (@JohnPulm) October 17, 2022

WNU Editor: I was asked yesterday on what stage are we at in the Russia - Ukraine war. 

My answer .... we are not in the middle stage/phase of this conflict, and we are certainly not at the end stage of the war. My gut tells me reluctantly that we are now at the beginning stage of a new phase in this war. 

The reasons for my conclusion are the following: (1) All of Russia's allies are telling their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately .... China Tells Its Citizens To Evacuate Ukraine Immediately (October 16. 2022). The official end of mobilization in Russia, and the deployment of thousands of troops to Belarus .... Belarus says nearly 9,000 Russian troops will deploy to Ukraine border (The Hill). The positioning of Russian nuclear forces in the event of a NATO response .... Russia Deploys Nuclear Capable Bombers Near The Finnish Borders (October 14, 2022). The destruction of Ukraine's power grid .... Russian Military Now Focused On Crippling Ukraine's Power Grid (October 16, 2022). 

What I now expect next are Russian military strikes on communication/transport hubs, key bridges, and command and control centers. Case in point. Ukraine's SBU offices in Kyiv were targeted this week (link here), and I expect more of this in the weeks to come. 

You do not have to be a military expert to know that Russia is preparing the battle-space for something big in the coming 2 to 3 months. This is going to happen when we start hearing Western reports of tens of thousands soldiers being deployed near the front-lines in Ukraine. I expect this in December.

As to the bigger question .... will Russia succeed? I honestly do not know. Ukraine is a massive country. And while the Russian-Ukrainian regions of the country may be sympathetic to Russia, the Ukrainian regions are not. 

When this offensive starts, the focus will be on capturing 100% of the 4 regions/provinces that Moscow now views is a part of Russia. It is going to be a bloodbath, and we are going to see destruction not seen in Europe since the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

If Ukraine does not surrender when this is accomplished, I can easily see the war going on for the rest of 2023, and maybe into 2024. In that event the focus for Russia will be to capture Odessa, Kharkiv, and all of the territory east of the Dnipro River. But to accomplish these goals will require more than the 300,000 Russian reservists that have been called-up. 

One final note and prediction. We are going to see tensions increase between Russia and the West to a level that will be worse than what we saw during the heights of the Cold War.